Fall - InsideOutdoor Magazine

Editor’s Letter
Holiday Wishes?
It’s quite possible this winter we will see one of those rare instances of late when an
Outdoor Retailer expo fails to experience sequential growth in the number of exhibitors.
Now, don’t get your bike short chamois in a bind. We’re not here to add murk to the
gloom and suggest that even the outdoor market is not insulated from the current recessionary
period. Sure, the capital crunch will put a kibosh on marketing agendas at some
smaller vendors and squash plans altogether for a few upstarts, both of which tend to
represent much of the new exhibitors, and hence the growth, at OR. What’s less clear
at this point, however, is how current market conditions will impact winter traffic in the
retail aisles.
Not good, say the experts, and for good reasons. But we’re still not convinced it’s wise
for outdoor dealers to alter plans in expectation of drastic dips in holiday spending, as is
widely suggested.
We’re willing to bet most of the 20 percent or so of your customers that generates 80
percent or so of your business didn’t see a large chunk of net worth suddenly disappear
when the Dow dropped below 10,000. And while lending is an issue that touches everyone,
credit card companies simply aren’t going to suddenly cut off qualified consumers or
jack rates on them in such a competitive environment. Nobody, quite frankly, likes to turn
away good business.
The instability of global markets even produced an interesting upside that for some
reason gets little attention from the keepers of the headlines. As the markets have dipped,
surely you’ve notice, so have food and gas prices, and that may impact Christmas consumerism
more than tanking stocks and tight credit, at least if we can believe the surveys
taken when those prices were rising.
There’s some evidence we should. This September, reports the U.S. Census, overall
retail dollars were down 1.2 percent compared to September 2007. Food and beverage
on its own, however, was up about 5 percent.
Gasoline station sales were up 17 percent year over year, despite data suggesting
people were cutting back on their driving. Consumers apparently were spending more
for lots less.
It seems safe to assume, as gas and food prices dip, much of the dollars saved once
again become discretionary. Of course, consumer attitude about the economic conditions,
or confidence, is a huge factor, as well, and falling prices at the pumps could have
the same positive effect as rising prices appear to have had a negative effect. We’d also
bet that as soon as the elections are over, we’ll be hearing a lot less from the talking heads
about how terrible the economy is performing.
So when it begins to look a lot like Christmas, don’t be surprised if it ends up looking a
lot like the holiday seasons of the past few years, when a good amount of retailers were
too short on inventory and staff to take advantage of the traffic. We’re not suggesting
caution is not in order. Consumers and financial institutions have been irresponsible, no
doubt, and some belt tightening appears inevitable. (The suggestion that purchasing is
patriotic while prudence is bad for the nation’s economy simply is dangerous, but that’s a
different discussion.)
Perhaps it’s best to take the same advice level-headed investment planners are offering
clients in these rocky financial times: There are two strikes, two outs, no runners on
base and you’re down a few runs, so give up going for the home run, and maybe even
choke up on the bat a little, but don’t just stand their taking pitches. If you do, there’s a
good chance you’ll watch the third strike go right by. –MV
Martin Vilaboy
Editor-in-Chief
martin@bekapublishing.com
Percy Zamora
Art Director
outdoor@bekapublishing.com
Ernest Shiwanov
Editor at Large
ernest@bekapublishing.com
Editorial Contributors:
R.J. Anderson
Philip Josephson
Berge Kaprelian
Group Publisher
berge@bekapublishing.com
Jennifer Vilaboy
Production Director
jen@bekapublishing.com
Suzanne Urash
Ad Creative Designer
suzanne@cre8groupinc.com
Beka Publishing
Berge Kaprelian
President and CEO
Philip Josephson
General Counsel
Jim Bankes
Business Accounting
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Gilbert, AZ 85234
Voice: 480.503.0770
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6 | InsideOutdoor | Fall 2008