Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020 - IEA

Global EV Outlook INTRODUCTION & SCOPE
7
INTRODUCTION
& SCOPE
As countries seek to address future energy requirements in a rapidly growing and changing world, achieving sustainable
transportation has emerged as a vital mission. Electric vehicles (EVs), in particular, represent one of the most promising
pathways to increased energy security and reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.
By helping to diversify the fuel mix, EVs reduce dependence on petroleum and tap into a
source of electricity that is often domestic and relatively inexpensive. Just as important,
EVs have the potential to unlock innovation and create new advanced industries that
spur job growth and enhance economic prosperity.
In the long-term, EVs are important to countries seeking to decarbonise the transport
sector. Figure 1 illustrates the key role of transport CO2 reductions in the International
Energy Agency’s (IEA) “2DS” scenario (2°C Scenario), which describes a future energy
system that would limit average global temperature increases to 2°C by 2050. In this
scenario, the transport sector’s potential share of overall CO2 reductions would be 21%
by 2050. In order to meet this share, three-fourths of all vehicle sales by 2050 would
need to be plug-in electric of some type.
Figure 1. Role of Transport in CO 2 Reduction (% = 2050 estimate)
Source: IEA, ETP 2012. NOTE: Sector percentages represent cumulative contributions to emissions reductions relative to the
4DS (4°C Scenario, which is based on proposed policies).
Gigatonnes CO2
60
50
40
30
21
10
TRANSPORT
6DS
4DS
2DS
IN THIS REPORT
// Presentation of primary
data collected from EVI
member governments on EV
and related infrastructure
deployment goals; policies,
programmes, and incentives;
deployment progress; and
investment in research,
development, and demonstration
(RD&D); all of which informs an
analysis of global market trends
and progress in electric vehicle
deployment and the implications
for technology and policy.*
// Identification of challenges
to EV deployment as well as
opportunities to address those
challenges.
// An outline of areas of
opportunity for governments
and industry to accelerate
adoption of electric vehicles:
Opportunity Matrix:
Pathways to 2020.
0
2009 2020
2030 2040 2050
SECTORS
Power Generation 42%
Transport 21%
Industry 18%
Buildings 12%
Other Transformation 7%
Additional Emissions 6DS (6°C Baseline Scenario)
*See also, IEA’s “Tracking Clean Energy Progress,” April 2013.