Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020 - IEA

Global EV Outlook DATA & ANALYSIS 18
MARKET TRENDS
Nissan LEAF — Brussels Motor Show, Belgium, January 2012
Trends suggest that PHEVs have more market momentum
than BEVs, perhaps reflecting consumers’ desire to keep fuel
flexibility for greater range; though with increased EVSE
and consumer education it is conceivable that BEVs could
similarly gain momentum.
Figure 17 compares sales since market introduction for two
PHEVs, two BEVs, and the Toyota Prius hybrid electric
vehicle (HEV). Sales of three of the four EV models are
currently above where the Prius HEV was at a corresponding
point in time. Sales of the Chevrolet Volt increased in 2012,
demonstrating consumer interest in the flexibility of a PHEV,
whereas sales of battery electric models such as the Nissan
LEAF and Mitsubishi i-MiEV have only recently been on the
up-tick. Of course, comparing PHEVs and BEVs to the market
development of an HEV is not a perfect “apples-to-apples”
comparison (for example, does not take share of overall
vehicle market into account, nor potential subsidy effects), but
it nevertheless provides a useful understanding of how EVs
are faring in terms of monthly sales and market development.
For this momentum to keep going, the market needs to
traverse the so-called “valley of death” from a niche market
to widespread adoption. Overall, sales numbers to date are
considered lower-than-expected by some car manufacturers
and market watchers, but in a weak car market during a
recession, the doubling of sales between 2011 and 2012 can
at least be considered progress for vehicle electrification.
Figure 17. Sales Since Market Introduction
(updated through December 2012).
Source: EVI, MarkLines Database, Nissan, Toyota, hybridcars.com. Note: Date indicates when model was first released. Different models were released at different times in various locations,
but this graph is an attempt to approximate worldwide market deployment. All types of a model have been included, e.g. the Opel Ampera counts as sales under the Volt PHEV category.
4,000
Prius HEV (Dec 1997)
3,500
i-MiEV EV (Jul 2009)
Volt PHEV (Dec 2010)
3,000
LEAF EV (Dec 2010)
Prius PHEV (Jan 2012)
New Vehicle Sales
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Months