Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020 - IEA

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Global EV Outlook DATA & ANALYSIS 10 EV DEPLOYMENT TARGETS & PROGRESS [ continued ] Figure 2. EV Sales Targets [ select EVI members ] Source: EVI. Note: A 20% compound annual growth rate is assumed for countries without a specific sales target (i.e., only a stock target) or with targets that end before 2020. Figure 3. EV Stock Targets [ select EVI members ] Source: EVI. Note: A 20% compound annual growth rate is assumed for countries without a specific stock target (i.e., only a sales target) or with targets that end before 2020. 20,000,000 Units 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 Portugal Germany France Spain Japan India Netherlands Units 16,000,000 12,000,000 8,000,000 Germany France Spain Japan India Netherlands Portugal 2,000,000 1,000,000 United States China 4,000,000 United States China 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Figure 4. EV Stock in EVI Countries, 2012 Source: EVI. Figure 5. Global EV Model Diversity and Sales Source: MarkLines Database. 80 70 200,000 25 Units, Thousand 60 50 40 30 20 10 Cumulative Sales 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 20,000 NUMBER OF MODELS AVAILABLE CUMULATIVE SALES 20 15 10 5 Number of Models Available China Denmark Finland France Germany India Italy N/A Japan Netherlands Portugal South Africa Spain Sweden United Kingdom United States 2010 2011 2012 0 CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS: SALES & STOCK TARGETS FOR 2020 The aggregated goal for all countries with known deployment targets is 7.2 million in EV sales and 24 million in EV stock. Of this goal, EVI countries account for cumulative sales of 5.9 million and stock of 20 million.
Global EV Outlook DATA & ANALYSIS 11 EV DEPLOYMENT TARGETS & PROGRESS [ continued ] 2012 NOTABLE EV EVENTS // World EV sales exceeded 100,000 units for the first time. // Motor Trend magazine named the Tesla Model S its 2013 Car of the Year, marking the first time a non-petrol powered vehicle won the accolade. DISTINCT GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION 2012 EVI data show a distinct geographic distribution for PHEV and BEV sales [ Figures 6a, 6b ]. E The largest share of the worldwide PHEV market is in the United States, due to the predominance of the Chevrolet Volt. Japan claims the second spot, largely due to increasing sales of the Toyota plug-in Prius. E In the worldwide BEV market, Japan holds the largest share due to sales of the Nissan LEAF, followed by the United States, then China, due in part to the use of electric taxis in Shenzhen and Hangzhou. France is in the fourth spot, in part due to Bolloré’s Bluecar, a part of the Paris EV car sharing scheme Autolib. E The total number of FCEVs is very low due to a limited number of models on the market, limited infrastructure, and higher costs compared to a BEV or PHEV. // Toyota launched its plug-in version of the Prius, which quickly outsold three other BEV models in 2012. // The Chevrolet Volt ranked the highest in Consumer Reports’ owner satisfaction survey for the second consecutive year. // EVI and partner organisations published the EV City Casebook, a guide to EV deployment efforts worldwide, featuring 16 cities in 9 countries across 3 continents. bit.ly/EVCityCasebook MARKET SHARE As shown in Figure 7, EV sales in Q1-Q3 2012 only reached 1% of total vehicle sales in Norway and Japan, but as EVs begin to penetrate the automotive market, the shares are likely to increase. In fact, in the last quarter of 2012 EV sales reached over 1% of total vehicle sales in both the Netherlands and the United States, furthering gains in market share. At the end of 2012, the highest sales shares of EVs were in Norway, Japan, Ireland, the Netherlands, and the United States. The main PHEV and BEV markets can be found in the 15 EVI countries with worldwide sales shares being about 96% and 89%, respectively. Analysis of EVI data show that to reach the EVI goal of 5.9 million in annual sales of EVs in 2020, the 2011 EV market (approximately 45,000) would need to grow by 72% compounded each year until 2020. Meeting this target of course becomes more of a challenge each year, but as 2012 came to a close, total sales numbered approximately 113,000, a more than doubling of the market. While this one-year growth is ahead of the curve, it will be much more difficult to double sales in later years, e.g. between 2019 to 2020, than in the first year. Nevertheless, the result is that the market has doubled and the growth rate is ahead of both IEA’s 2DS scenario and cumulative EVI sales/stock targets to date. EV CITY CASEBOOK A LOOK AT THE GLOBAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE MOVEMENT 2012
Page 1: GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK Understanding the
Page 4 and 5: Global EV Outlook MAP 4 ELECTRIC VE
Page 6 and 7: Global EV Outlook Key Takeaways The
Page 8 and 9: Global EV Outlook INTRODUCTION & SC
Page 12 and 13: Global EV Outlook DATA & ANALYSIS 1
Page 24 and 25: e-Flinkster Charging Station — Fr
Page 26 and 27: Global EV Outlook CHALLENGES & OPPO
Page 34: Global EV Outlook OPPORTUNITY MATRI
Page 38 and 39: Global EV Outlook GLOSSARY 38 GLOSS
Page 40: Global EV Outlook ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 4

Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020 - IEA

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?