PERF RMANCE 04 - The Performance Portal - Ernst & Young

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Use discipline to select technologies For firms facing rapid technological change, knowing which technology to back need not be a guessing game or a purely creative exercise. We provide a framework for informed decisions as shown in Figure 7. The framework consists of identifying the levels of innovation, the competing technologies at each level, the dimensions of performance on which to compare them and the patterns of evolution on each dimension. Our study has shown that some prior beliefs about technology evolution and selection are wrong. It refutes the “confirmed wisdom” that technology evolution patterns follow simple successive S-shaped curves. Rather, patterns of evolution are complex, on multiple dimensions and only partly predictable. Importantly, firms need to invest in, or at least monitor, a portfolio of technologies in order to appreciate which technology to back. Figure 7. Suggested tellis/sood framework for technology selection 1. Do not rely on simplistic models such as the “S-curve.” 2. Identify the different levels of innovation (platform, design, or component?). 3. Identify the competing technologies at each level. 4. Identify the dimensions of performance on which to compare them. 5. Follow the patterns of evolution on each dimension. 6. Continuously monitor a portfolio of technologies in order to appreciate which technology to back. 7. Be ready to change technologies if one seems to be improving faster than others. Note: The tellis/sood framework for technology evaluation study examined the evolution of all the technologies in seven markets. The study used data from as early as 1879 to 2001.
Choosing the right technology “ For firms facing rapid technological change, knowing which technology to back need not be a guessing game or a purely creative exercise.” 21
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