GM crops in developing countries: full discussion paper

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The use of genetically modified crops in developing countries 2.5 Employment can be provided most readily in industry or agriculture. However, it is normally much more expensive to create jobs in modern, especially urban, industries. This is due to high costs of related capital such as equipment, machinery and factory buildings. Investments in private and social infrastructure, such as policing, healthcare and urban roads are also required. The provision of employment in agriculture, on the other hand, can be achieved at lower costs. Furthermore, growth in rural non-farm jobs, which was the source of much reduction in rural poverty after the initial Green Revolution in China and elsewhere, depended mainly on demand from nearby small-scale farmers and their employees. 2.6 The above evidence and argument led us to the following conclusions in our 1999 Report, which have been reinforced by evidence accumulating from 1999-2003: To resume the rapid reduction in poverty and malnutrition of the 1970-80s and to extend it to Africa, employment on farms and the growth of productivity in staple crops had to be revived, either through the expansion of farmland, or the increase in yields. The expansion of farmland was seldom feasible, environmentally and otherwise. Conventional plant breeding was still making very substantial contributions to growth in yield. But its effect was increasingly reduced by new types of pest, exhaustion of micronutrients, water shortages and unsuitability of land (especially in Africa) for important semi-dwarf varieties of rice and wheat. There was overall exhaustion of the huge potential created by the early breakthroughs of the Green Revolution. GM crops could be particularly relevant for areas so far untouched by the Green Revolution. Crops that were better suited to environmental constraints could be developed, leading to considerable increases in yield. GM crops as a tool of, and addition to, conventional plant breeding, could revive, stabilise and spread the growth in yields of food staples, and of other crops grown by poor people. 14
The use of genetically modified crops in developing countries Growth in populations and demand for labour 2.7 Although growth in population has progressed somewhat more slowly than anticipated, the current global population of 6.3 billion people is expected to increase to 8.1 billion by 2030. 2 Growth in population in Asia and Africa in 2030 is expected to be 1.33 and 1.76 times its present level, respectively. Groups in those regions most subject to poverty and undernutrition are expected to increase the most rapidly. Hence, requirements for food are likely to rise substantially. 3 2.8 More important is the even faster growth predicted for the numbers of people of working age (15-59) in Asia and Africa. For example, in 2030, Africa’s population will have expanded by 1.76 times the level in 2000. However, the working-age population will be 1.97 times larger while the non-working-age population will only be 1.52 times as large. 4 This higher ratio of workers can be advantageous if it is complemented by improved working opportunities. These are most affordable where agriculture raises yields and demand for labour, but they are a burden if it does not. Unless the rise in working age population is at least matched by rising numbers of jobs, employment or wage rates will fall. Poor people will then have even more difficulty in affording enough food. Food security and the role of agriculture 2.9 Improvement in the diet of poor people depends on growth not only in the supply of food and nutrients, but also in demand for their labour. 5 Yet it has become even clearer since our 1999 Report that the extent of undernourishment is substantial, and that the previous decline in undernourishment has stalled. According to the FAO, 815 million people worldwide were undernourished in 1997-1999, of whom 777 million were living in developing countries. One third of the population of sub-Saharan Africa is undernourished. 6 2.10 Seventy per cent of the world’s poor live in rural areas and depend mainly upon agriculture for their livelihood. Despite increasing urbanisation, over half will remain there in 2035. 7 The role of agriculture in reducing poverty is therefore crucial. Its rapid growth can lower and stabilise the cost of food to poor consumers living in rural and urban environments. 8 Where, as in the Green Revolution, small-scale agriculture has been a major 2 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2003) World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (New York: UN). 3 A major increase in production of food grain per head will further be required, as increasing urbanisation, growth of populations and rise in incomes will lead to a higher demand for meat and dairy products. Between now and 2020 the demand is expected to double in developing countries, see Delgado C et al. (1999) 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment Discussion Paper 28 Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution (Washington, DC: IFPRI). This expansion means that the demand for cereals used for animal feed will increase substantially, as approximately three to seven times as much cereal is needed to provide the same amount of calories as for people who consume animals as food. 4 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2003) World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (New York: UN). In some African countries the HIV/AIDS virus considerably impacts this trend, for example in Kenya, see paragraph 3.61. 5 FAO Electronic Forum on Biotechnology in Food and Agriculture (2000) Background Document to Conference 1, 20 March – 26 May 2000 How appropriate are currently available biotechnologies in the crop sector for food production and agriculture in developing countries (FAO UN). Available: http://www.fao.org/biotech/C1doc.htm. Accessed on: 10 Oct 2003; Department for International Development (DFID) (2002) Better Livelihoods for Poor People: The Role of Agriculture (London: DFID). 6 FAO (2002) The State of Food and Agriculture 2002 (Rome: FAO). 7 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2003) World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (New York: UN). 8 The recent report on rural poverty produced by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) provides some evidence about the role of agriculture, enhancement of yield within agriculture and GM plants as possible sources of greater or more stable yields in providing food and labour income to poor people. See IFAD (2001) Rural Poverty Report 2001 – The Challenge of Ending Rural Poverty (Rome: IFAD). CHAPTER 2 THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT: THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 15
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