OECD Internet Economy Outlook 2012 (Presentation)
OECD Internet Economy Outlook 2012 (Presentation)
OECD Internet Economy Outlook 2012 (Presentation)
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do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the <strong>OECD</strong> or its Membership.<br />
<strong>Internet</strong> <strong>Economy</strong><br />
<strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />
(Embargo until 4 Oct <strong>2012</strong>)<br />
Taylor Reynolds<br />
Information <strong>Economy</strong><br />
<strong>OECD</strong><br />
taylor.reynolds@oecd.org
The <strong>Internet</strong> and the ICT sector
The <strong>Internet</strong>’s second wave<br />
<strong>Internet</strong><br />
(Wave1)<br />
<strong>Internet</strong><br />
(Wave 2)
Apple: 17 years too early?<br />
Hello Newton<br />
1993<br />
Hello iPad<br />
2010
Devices ahead of their time?<br />
Smart devices<br />
1996<br />
Tablets<br />
2002
<strong>Internet</strong><br />
(Wave3)<br />
Wave 3: Integration
The <strong>Internet</strong> and the crisis:<br />
What crisis?
Top 250 ICT firms (2000-2011)<br />
Average number of employees and current USD, index 2000 = 100 1<br />
Note: Based on averages for those firms reporting.<br />
1. Data for 2000 to 2004 are based on the panel of 250 firms of the ITO 2008. Values for 2009 have been estimated<br />
based on firms’ interim reports in 2009.<br />
Source: <strong>OECD</strong>, Information Technology database, compiled from annual reports, SEC filings and market financials.<br />
8
ICT services growing quickly<br />
Growth in monthly output in telecommunications<br />
Year-on-year percentage change, 3-month moving average<br />
%<br />
Germany Sweden United Kingdom China Korea Japan<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
-5<br />
-10<br />
-15<br />
-20<br />
Aug-11<br />
Jun-11<br />
Apr-11<br />
Feb-11<br />
Dec-10<br />
Oct-10<br />
Aug-10<br />
Jun-10<br />
Apr-10<br />
Feb-10<br />
Dec-09<br />
Oct-09<br />
Aug-09<br />
Jun-09<br />
Apr-09<br />
Feb-09<br />
Dec-08<br />
Oct-08<br />
Aug-08<br />
Jun-08<br />
Apr-08<br />
Feb-08<br />
Dec-07<br />
Source: Forthcoming <strong>Internet</strong> <strong>Economy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Employment<br />
• 15 million jobs in <strong>OECD</strong> ICT sector<br />
• 6% of business-sector employment<br />
• Growing faster than overall<br />
employment in the economy<br />
• At the height of the crisis in 2009,<br />
job growth in the top 250 iCT firms<br />
slowed to 1% CAGR but quickly<br />
rebounded to 6% in 2011<br />
• In 2011, 18% of individuals<br />
reported using the <strong>Internet</strong><br />
for job searches
Employee productivity<br />
1 000<br />
900<br />
Average annual revenue per employee of the top 250 ICT firms by sector,<br />
2000-11 1<br />
USD thousands<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
<strong>Internet</strong><br />
Software<br />
Telecommunications<br />
Communications equipment<br />
Semiconductors<br />
Electronics & components<br />
IT equipment<br />
IT services
Understanding the economic<br />
impact of the <strong>Internet</strong> with official<br />
statistical data
Broadband: General purpose technology
Measuring the <strong>Internet</strong> economy<br />
• <strong>OECD</strong> held an expert meeting in September 2011 in Paris<br />
• 50+ academics, statisticians, consultants, and other<br />
experts examined and discussed methodologies
Leveraging <strong>OECD</strong> data to measure<br />
the <strong>Internet</strong> economy<br />
• Initial focus on value added<br />
from <strong>Internet</strong> activities in<br />
the economy (direct impact)<br />
• Use only official data from<br />
national statistical offices<br />
• United States is the first<br />
country for analysis<br />
because of the detailed<br />
data that is available
Main findings: Measuring the US<br />
<strong>Internet</strong> economy<br />
At least 3% (narrow scope) and up to 13% (broad scope)<br />
of the United States’ business-sector value added could be<br />
attributed to <strong>Internet</strong>-related activities in 2010.<br />
Non-<strong>Internet</strong><br />
(business excl. real estate)<br />
Other sectors incl. real estate<br />
(no <strong>Internet</strong> related data available)<br />
<strong>Internet</strong><br />
(business excl. real estate)<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Services<br />
Agriculture
What is value added?<br />
Why not just use GDP?
Includes<br />
Business sector as % of value<br />
added<br />
Does not include:<br />
-Mining<br />
-Utilities<br />
-Construction<br />
-Manufacturing<br />
-Wholesale trade<br />
-Retail trade<br />
-Transportation and<br />
warehousing<br />
-Information<br />
-Finance and insurance<br />
-Rental and leasing services<br />
and lessors of intangible<br />
assets<br />
-Professional, scientific,<br />
and technical services<br />
-Management of companies<br />
and enterprises<br />
-Administrative and waste<br />
management services<br />
-Accommodation and food<br />
services<br />
62% 38%<br />
Business sector value added<br />
Other value added<br />
-Agriculture, forestry,<br />
fishing and hunting<br />
-Real estate<br />
-Community social and<br />
personal services:<br />
-Educational services<br />
-Health care<br />
-Social assistance<br />
-Arts<br />
-Entertainment<br />
-Recreation<br />
-Government<br />
-Other services (except<br />
govt)
<strong>Internet</strong> in 3 sectors only 3%<br />
total value created by businesses<br />
The <strong>Internet</strong>-related value<br />
added in these 3 sectors<br />
alone account for 3% of<br />
total business sector value<br />
added in the United States<br />
(i.e. the business sector’s<br />
contribution to GDP)
<strong>Internet</strong> in these14 sectors 13% of<br />
all value created by US businesses<br />
The <strong>Internet</strong>-related value<br />
added in these 14 sectors<br />
accounts for 13% of total<br />
business sector value<br />
added in the United States<br />
(i.e. the business sector’s<br />
contribution to GDP)
Leveraging the <strong>Internet</strong> for growth
<strong>Internet</strong>/broadband adoption by<br />
households in 2011
Businesses using the <strong>Internet</strong><br />
2010<br />
(% of businesses with 10 or more persons employed)<br />
100<br />
94.2<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
2011 2007
Korea: How firms use the <strong>Internet</strong><br />
% of businesses with... / who ...<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
PC<br />
placed orders over<br />
the <strong>Internet</strong><br />
<strong>Internet</strong><br />
Broadband<br />
web site<br />
received orders over<br />
the <strong>Internet</strong><br />
2000 2003 2006 2009<br />
Fixed BB ‘11<br />
EU27 = 87%<br />
Web site ‘11<br />
EU27 = 67%<br />
Placed orders<br />
EU27 = 35%<br />
Received<br />
orders ‘11<br />
EU27 = 17%
MyTaxi app in Germany
US: Venture capital in ICT<br />
Quarterly venture capital investments in the ICT sector in the United States, Q1<br />
1995 – Q3 2011<br />
Amount of ICT VC investments (billion USD)<br />
% of ICT VC investments on Total<br />
25<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
20<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
15<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
10<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
5<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0<br />
0%<br />
Source: <strong>OECD</strong> <strong>Internet</strong> <strong>Economy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2012</strong> (forthcoming)
US: Venture capital in ICT<br />
Quarterly venture capital investments in the <strong>Internet</strong> sector in the United States,<br />
Q1 1995 - Q2 2011<br />
Amount of <strong>Internet</strong>-Specific VC investments (billion USD)<br />
% of <strong>Internet</strong>-Specific VC investments on Total<br />
15<br />
100%<br />
13.5<br />
90%<br />
12<br />
80%<br />
10.5<br />
70%<br />
9<br />
60%<br />
7.5<br />
50%<br />
6<br />
40%<br />
4.5<br />
30%<br />
3<br />
20%<br />
1.5<br />
10%<br />
0<br />
0%<br />
Source: <strong>OECD</strong> <strong>Internet</strong> <strong>Economy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2012</strong> (forthcoming)
Digital content<br />
Enhance<br />
• New business models &<br />
distribution platforms<br />
• Mobility<br />
• Storage in the Cloud<br />
• Heavier use of User-<br />
Created Content (UCC)<br />
Social Networks*<br />
• Crowdsourcing<br />
• Local Content<br />
Limit<br />
• Geographical<br />
restrictions<br />
• Interoperability<br />
• Technical<br />
restrictions based<br />
on license<br />
Facebook<br />
Wikipedia<br />
Has 46 available languages<br />
900+ million active users.<br />
70+ languages available on the site.<br />
350 million active users currently access Facebook<br />
through their mobile devices<br />
Over 150 million geotagged photos on Flickr.<br />
Users upload more than 3,000 photos each minute.<br />
18 million articles (over 3.6 million in English).<br />
Information on 274 languages represented on the<br />
site.<br />
+106 million accounts on Twitter,<br />
Most tweets are in English,<br />
11 % are in Portuguese, 6 % in Japanese, 4 % in<br />
Spanish, and 18 % in other language.<br />
49 languages.<br />
250,000 words are written each minute.<br />
+2 billion views per day,<br />
48 hours of video content added every minute.<br />
YouTube users upload more video content each<br />
month than the combined output of all three major<br />
US television networks for the past 60 years.
Electronic medical records<br />
Use of electronic medical records by physicians in seven <strong>OECD</strong> countries<br />
(2006-2009)<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
98%<br />
2006 2009<br />
99% 97%<br />
92%<br />
96% 95%<br />
89%<br />
79%<br />
42%<br />
72%<br />
28%<br />
46%<br />
37%<br />
23%
Broadband for health information<br />
Percentage of broadband<br />
and narrowband users<br />
who report seeking health<br />
information<br />
(2010 or the latest)
Growth of registered trademarks<br />
(security and privacy)
Employment growth for security and privacy sectors<br />
Total number of International Association of Privacy Professionals (IAPP)<br />
members<br />
2000-11<br />
Source: <strong>OECD</strong> based on IAPP (2011)<br />
32
<strong>OECD</strong> i<strong>Economy</strong> App
Thank you
Need business sector explanation
REVENUES and<br />
E-COMMERCE<br />
(non-SNA, Detailed data)<br />
VALUE ADDED<br />
(SNA, Aggregated<br />
data)<br />
TOTAL<br />
GDP<br />
Non-<strong>Internet</strong>-related<br />
(narrow scope)<br />
No <strong>Internet</strong>-related data available<br />
Information<br />
sector<br />
Wholesale / retail<br />
Other business sectors<br />
(excl. real estate)<br />
Other sectors<br />
(e.g. real estate, agriculture)<br />
data on<br />
revenues<br />
data on<br />
e-commerce<br />
online*<br />
e-com.<br />
offline<br />
offline<br />
Assumption #1<br />
Assumption #2<br />
Non – <strong>Internet</strong> – related business output<br />
The <strong>Internet</strong> economy (narrow scope)<br />
No data<br />
available
REVENUES and<br />
E-COMMERCE<br />
(non-SNA, Detailed data)<br />
VALUE ADDED<br />
(SNA, Aggregated<br />
data)<br />
TOTAL<br />
GDP<br />
No <strong>Internet</strong>-related data available<br />
Information<br />
sector<br />
Other business sectors<br />
(excl. real estate)<br />
Other sectors<br />
(e.g. real estate, agriculture)<br />
data on<br />
revenues<br />
data on e-commerce **<br />
Wholesale / retail Manufacturing Other services<br />
online*<br />
e-com.<br />
e-com.<br />
e-com.<br />
offline offline offline offline<br />
Assumption #1 Assumption #2<br />
Non – <strong>Internet</strong> – related business output<br />
The <strong>Internet</strong> economy (broad scope)<br />
No data<br />
available
ICT employment<br />
Share of ICT employment in business sector employment, 1995 and 2009<br />
%<br />
10<br />
1995 2009<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0