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Dear Dr. Pu, Thank you for your letter. Sorry for delay of my reply: I ...

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<strong>Dear</strong> <strong>Dr</strong>. <strong>Pu</strong>,<br />

<strong>Thank</strong> <strong>you</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>you</strong>r <strong>letter</strong>.<br />

<strong>Sorry</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>delay</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>my</strong> <strong>reply</strong>: I was at scientific conference and could to write <strong>you</strong> <strong>letter</strong>.<br />

I could not understand from <strong>you</strong>r <strong>letter</strong> whether I can write the replies to last reviewers’<br />

comments at the given stage.<br />

There<strong>for</strong>e I now shall briefly state <strong>my</strong> opinion under all comments <strong>of</strong> 3 reviewers.<br />

The basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>my</strong> manuscript is following:<br />

Method used by Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. does not allow one to select “backside CMEs” and “frontside<br />

CMEs without disc activity” but Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. excluded all “frontside CMEs without disc<br />

activity” from list <strong>of</strong> frontside CMEs and included them in list <strong>of</strong> “backside CMEs”. This is the<br />

obvious fact. All conclusions <strong>of</strong> the manuscript are logic consequences <strong>of</strong> this fact.<br />

Reviewer #1 agreed with the fact and discussed the conclusions taking into account <strong>of</strong> the fact.<br />

Reviewer #2 does not want to see and to discuss the fact and he/she discusses only conclusions<br />

without source <strong>of</strong> these conclusions.<br />

Reviewer #3 initially discusses conclusions without consideration <strong>of</strong> the fact and then writes that<br />

he/she agrees with the fact (“The only problem with Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.’s paper, to <strong>my</strong> opinion,<br />

is that the authors failed to correctly classify those halo CMEs without disc activities, and didn’t<br />

point out that some <strong>of</strong> they defined ‘backside” CMEs might also originate from the front-side<br />

disk”). However he/she writes that paper is not pleasant to him/her, ignoring the fact.<br />

Thus, two from three reviewers have agreed with the fact (i.e. with the basic maintenance <strong>of</strong> the<br />

manuscript) and one <strong>of</strong> them has refrained from an estimation <strong>of</strong> this fact. Why do <strong>you</strong> conclude<br />

that the manuscript cannot be published in JGR?<br />

It will be a pity to me, if I should publish the comments in other journal, and the methodical<br />

problems published in JGR, will be discussed in this journal but not in JGR.<br />

Sincerely <strong>you</strong>rs,<br />

Yuri Yermolaev<br />

---------------------------------------------<br />

Manuscript Number: 2008JA013040RR Manuscript Title: Comment on "Geoeffectiveness <strong>of</strong><br />

halo coronal mass ejections" by Gopalswa<strong>my</strong>, N., S. Yashiro, and S. Akiyama"<br />

<strong>Dear</strong> <strong>Dr</strong>. Yermolaev:<br />

I regret to in<strong>for</strong>m <strong>you</strong> that the above manuscript cannot be accepted <strong>for</strong> publication in Journal <strong>of</strong><br />

Geophysical Research - Space Physics. Below are 2 reviews. Based on these comments and <strong>my</strong><br />

own examination <strong>of</strong> the paper, I have determined that it cannot be made to meet the requirements<br />

<strong>for</strong> publication in Journal <strong>of</strong> Geophysical Research - Space Physics in anything like its present<br />

<strong>for</strong>m.


Sincerely,<br />

Zuyin <strong>Pu</strong><br />

Journal <strong>of</strong> Geophysical Research - Space Physics<br />

************************** Reviewer Comments **************************<br />

Reviewer #2 (Comments):<br />

Reviewer #2's third review report to "Yermolaev's second response to Reviewer #2's second<br />

review report"<br />

Different from author's first response, in his second response the author complains that "the<br />

purpose <strong>of</strong> <strong>my</strong> paper is to show the<br />

incorrectness <strong>of</strong> Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' method <strong>of</strong> data processing", and "the reviewer does not wish<br />

to discuss the essence <strong>of</strong> <strong>my</strong> manuscript and discusses the minor problems ...". The following is<br />

Reviewer #2's comments.<br />

1. What is the purpose and essence <strong>of</strong> the COMMENT paper? and<br />

Why Reviewer #2 discusses method and geoeffectiveness <strong>of</strong> other papers as well as the comment<br />

paper?<br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. [2007] obtained a significantly higher<br />

geoeffectiveness rates <strong>of</strong> frontside halo CMEs than previous studies (say, Kim et al. [2005]),<br />

and attributed the conflicting results to the different definition <strong>of</strong> 'halo' CMEs. The author <strong>of</strong> the<br />

comment paper attributed the high geoeffectiveness to the "incorrect" classification <strong>of</strong> the<br />

'frontside' and 'backside' halo CMEs, and concluded that the high geoeffectiveness obtained by<br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. was "incorrect".<br />

Obviously, the purpose or essence <strong>of</strong> the COMMENT paper is to<br />

"present our point <strong>of</strong> view on high geoeffectiveness <strong>of</strong> CMEs obtained in the paper by<br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al" (see the first paragraph <strong>of</strong> the comment paper), i.e., to<br />

SHOW that Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' high geoeffectiveness rate is "incorrect".<br />

The "selection method <strong>of</strong> frontside halo CMEs" is only one <strong>of</strong><br />

arguments proposed in the debate.<br />

By discussing the selection method alone, as the author suggested, is obviously impossible <strong>for</strong><br />

Reviewers to decide<br />

which point <strong>of</strong> views about the cause <strong>of</strong> the high geoeffectiveness, the author's or Gopalswa<strong>my</strong><br />

et al', is acceptable, and to determine whether or not the high geoeffectiveness is incorrect.<br />

The scientific way to find out the answer is to examine<br />

and compare not only selection methods <strong>of</strong> "frontside"<br />

halo CMEs but also "different definitions <strong>of</strong> halo CMEs" used in<br />

Gopalwa<strong>my</strong> et al.' and Kim et al.' papers. It is also necessary to see the effects <strong>of</strong> the different<br />

definitions and the<br />

selection methods on the geoeffectiveness rate.<br />

That is just what Reviewer #2 did, and Reviewer #1 and Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. did the similar way<br />

(see Reviewer #1's second report and Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' response). It is certainly necessary!


2. What is the CORRECT selection method (or observational definition) <strong>of</strong> the frontside halo<br />

CME?<br />

As shown in the first or second section <strong>of</strong> Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' and<br />

Kim et al.' papers, the observational definition <strong>of</strong> frontside halo CMEs used in the <strong>for</strong>mer is<br />

basically the same as in the latter, that is the halo CME that is associated with one <strong>of</strong> nearsurface<br />

activities, such as flare, filament disappearence, dimming, .... or moew briefly, the halo<br />

CME with near-surface<br />

activity. This is the standard definition <strong>of</strong> frontside CMEs used in liturature.<br />

It is true that there is no any specific kind <strong>of</strong> associated near-surface activities that has one-toone<br />

correspodence to halo CMEs. However, observations have shown that the percentage <strong>of</strong><br />

CMEs that are associated with flares alone is ~50%,<br />

and the percentage increases to ~75% when CMEs are associated with flares<br />

or filament disappearences [Munro et al., 1977]. It is expected that the percentage may be near<br />

100% as the number <strong>of</strong> associated near-surface activities used further increases. In fact, there<br />

have been studies that suggest that by using this standard definition, the detection rate <strong>for</strong><br />

backside and frontside halo CMEs is basically the same (see also Reviewer #1's second review<br />

report). This fact proves the correctness <strong>of</strong> the selection method used in Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.'<br />

paper, and shows no "obvious logical mistake" at all.<br />

Based on the existence <strong>of</strong> the "problem storms", the author asserted that there were "frontside<br />

halo CMEs without disk (near-surface) activity", and this kind <strong>of</strong> "frontside halo CMEs without<br />

disk activity" "have been excluded from the frontside list and included in the backside list".<br />

What are the observational definitions the author used here <strong>for</strong> the "CME", the "halo CME" and<br />

the "frontside halo CMEs"?<br />

If the definitions are the same as what used in Kim et al.' paper, it is certainly a logic mistake to<br />

talk about "frontside halo CMEs without disk activity" because the frontside halo CME is<br />

defined as "the CME with disk activity".<br />

It is well known that "Problem storms" are observationally defined as the storms without any<br />

kind <strong>of</strong> solar activities associated, not only near-surface activities, but also CMEs. Why the<br />

author is so sure that "problem storms" must have CMEs associated with? If the "problem<br />

storms" were realy<br />

associated with CMEs, they would not be "problem" storms any more. It is another logic<br />

mistake.<br />

Reviewer #2 don't think the author could make such obvious logic mistakes. Perhaps, the author<br />

INCORRECTLY assumes that "problem CMEs" are defined as the storms with CMEs associated<br />

but without near-surface activity associated.<br />

The existence <strong>of</strong> "problem storms" means the existence <strong>of</strong> some kind <strong>of</strong> new CME that may be<br />

detected by new instrements in the future, but cannot be detected by presently-used instruments.<br />

It may also be expected that there are new near-surface activities that are associated with the new<br />

kind <strong>of</strong> CME because the CME is not an isolated phenomenon, it is one <strong>of</strong> manifestations <strong>of</strong> the<br />

reconfiguration <strong>of</strong> the solar atmosphere. There is htus no reason to rule out the possible existence<br />

<strong>of</strong> the new associated near-surface activities that can be used to distinguish frontside from<br />

backside CMEs.<br />

There<strong>for</strong>e, the selection method <strong>of</strong> frontside halo CMEs used in<br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' paper is correct because no any observational evidence to support the<br />

coclussion made by the author.


3. Is the high geoeffectiveness "overestimated" or "incorrect"?<br />

As shown in Reviewer #2's first and second reports, it is the different definitions <strong>of</strong> "halo" CMEs<br />

used by Kim et al. and Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. that make the significant difference <strong>of</strong><br />

geoeffectiveness. In Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' paper, "halo" CMEs are defined as the CMEs with<br />

apparent angular width <strong>of</strong> 360 degrees, i.e., FULL halo CMEs; and in Kim et al., "halo" CMEs<br />

are<br />

defined as the CMEs with apparent angular width greater than 120 degrees, i.e., "FULL +<br />

PARTIAL" halo CMEs.<br />

Because most <strong>of</strong> frontside PARTIAL halo CMEs could not encounter<br />

the Earth, it is understandable why Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' geoeffectiveness is significantly higher<br />

than Kim et al.'. Actually, using the data in Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al' paper, the low geoeffectiveness<br />

can also be obtained if using the same definition <strong>of</strong> halo CMEs as used by Kim et al., as shown<br />

in Reviewer #2's first report.<br />

In summary, both the selection method <strong>of</strong> frontside halo CMEs<br />

and the high geoeffectiveness in Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.' paper is reasonable, and acceptable. The<br />

arguments and conclusions in the comment paper are incorrect.<br />

Reviewer #3 (Comments):<br />

The comment on Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.'s higher rate <strong>of</strong> geoeffective<br />

front-side full-halo CMEs made by Yermolaev, to <strong>my</strong> opinion, is<br />

not valid. In Yermolaev's comment, he/she criticizes that<br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. use harder/illogical criteria to filter<br />

front-side CMEs, which leads those front-side CMEs without<br />

disk activities missed and there<strong>for</strong> yields false high rate.<br />

The critic doesn't realize that the high rate is due to the<br />

stricter selection <strong>of</strong> halo CMEs, not the stricter selection<br />

<strong>of</strong> front-side CMEs. In different studies, different<br />

definitions <strong>of</strong> halo CMEs are used. For example, halo CMEs<br />

actually mean those CMEs with angular with larger than 140,<br />

130, or 120 degrees in many studies, such as by Kim et al.<br />

(2005), Wang et al. (2002), Webb et al. (2000), and St. Cyr et al.<br />

(2000). Different definitions will cause different preselected<br />

sample. In Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.'s paper, only FULL halo CMEs are<br />

considered, that results in 378 events (note this number is <strong>for</strong><br />

all halo CMEs no matter where did they come from) from 1996 to<br />

2005. We can make a comparison <strong>of</strong> this number with the number, 883,<br />

from Kim et al.'s paper. It's obvious that the number by<br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. is 42.8% <strong>of</strong> that by Kim et al. even though<br />

the statistical period in Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.'s paper is more<br />

than two-year longer than that in Kim et al.'s paper. It's<br />

generally accepted that the wider the CME angular width is,<br />

the higher probable is the CME to encounter the Earth and cause<br />

geoeffectiveness. It is because a wider angular width means<br />

that either the location <strong>of</strong> a CME is closer to the center <strong>of</strong><br />

solar disk, where the CME right faces to the Earth, or the


actual angular size is larger. I notice that based on Kim et al.'s<br />

paper, the rate <strong>of</strong> geoeffective CMEs increases to > 80% if<br />

only the CMEs with location 400 km/s<br />

are considered. Thus, it could be expected that the rate should<br />

be higher as the selection threshold <strong>of</strong> halo CMEs increases.<br />

The stricter selection threshold <strong>of</strong> halo CMEs is already<br />

clearly claimed in the Introduction and Discussion <strong>of</strong><br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.'s paper. I don't think readers will be<br />

misled. This is <strong>my</strong> first reason why I said that Yermolaev's<br />

comment is invalid.<br />

Yermolaev criticizes that the front-side halo CME list by<br />

Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. is not complete, because those<br />

non-disk-activity associated halo CMEs might also originate<br />

from the front side <strong>of</strong> the solar disk. However, I think<br />

the critic also has no clue which non-disk-activity associated<br />

halo CMEs do come from front-side disk. Excluding all<br />

undeterminable events from the final sample is a common<br />

treatment applied in almost all studies in this area. I am<br />

hard to understand why only the study by Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.<br />

catches the critic's doubt. As to those 'problem events', I<br />

have to say that there is no definite explanation on those<br />

events. An unsolved phenomenon can not be used as evidence to<br />

judge that the front-side halo CME list must be incomplete.<br />

No one can confidently claim that those problem events are<br />

caused by the front-side CMEs without any disk activities.<br />

There is indeed another explanation with some indirect<br />

evidence that some backside CMEs can affect the Earth (Webb<br />

et al., JGR, 2000; Zhang et al., ApJ, 2003; Wang et al., Sol<br />

Phys, 2004). That's <strong>my</strong> second reason.<br />

Third, I would argue with Yermolaev that if the CME list is<br />

not complete, how large the percentage <strong>of</strong> the front-side CMEs<br />

should be. The present CME list suggests that about 61% halo<br />

CMEs come from front-side disk, which is reasonable in<br />

statistics (ideally the percentage is 50%). The only problem<br />

with the Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.'s<br />

paper, to <strong>my</strong> opinion, is that the authors failed to correctly<br />

classify those halo CMEs without disk activities, and didn't<br />

point out that some <strong>of</strong> they defined "backside" CMEs might also<br />

originate from the front-side disk. But those unknown false<br />

backside CMEs should occupy a really small fraction, and will<br />

not significantly impact the results by Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al. The<br />

focus <strong>of</strong> Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et al.'s paper is on those definite<br />

front-side full-halo CMEs. So I don't think that Gopalswa<strong>my</strong> et<br />

al. made a big mistake in their study. Overall, I think that the<br />

comment by Yermolaev is not worthy to be published.

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