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Impact Of Agricultural Market Reforms On Smallholder Farmers In ...

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Households in every expenditure category were, on average, positive about the changes in their<br />

economic situation since 1992. The strongest positive responses, however, were obtained from the<br />

poorest three household categories and the least positive response from the richest expenditure<br />

category. For example, 50-59 percent of the households in the lower three expenditure categories<br />

said their economic conditions had improved, compared to just 44 percent among households in the<br />

highest expenditure category (see Table 4.1.179).<br />

Reasons for perceived changes in well-being<br />

<strong>In</strong> order to assess the reasons for these views, respondents who reported a change in their<br />

economic condition were asked to identify the main factor causing this change. The main reasons<br />

cited by those seeing an improvement in their economic condition were increases in crop prices (27<br />

percent), changes in the price or availability of food (25 percent), and increases in off-farm income<br />

(20 percent) (see Table 4.1.180).<br />

The reasons cited by those who experienced deterioration in their economic condition were<br />

problems of household health (21 percent), poor weather (20 percent), and declining soil fertility<br />

(15 percent). It is worth noting that the three most important reasons given for improved economic<br />

conditions are factors that are probably linked to the economic reform program. <strong>On</strong> the other hand,<br />

the reasons given for declining economic conditions are random factors generally unconnected with<br />

economic policy. Thus, these results indicate that the evaluation of economic reforms by rural<br />

households is more positive than would be indicated by their perceived change in household wellbeing.<br />

Regression analysis of perceived changes in well-being<br />

We use regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the perceived change in<br />

household well-being. Because the dependent variable is a qualitative variable representing<br />

“better”, “same”, and “worse”, an ordered probit analysis is used 23 . A positive coefficient means<br />

23<br />

An ordered probit regression analysis is used when the dependent variable takes three or more values<br />

and represents a discrete variable with a natural ordering. Unlike linear regression, the dependent variable is<br />

discrete, such as the responses to a multiple-choice question, rather than continuous, such as income. Unlike<br />

a standard probit, the dependent variable takes more than two values. And unlike a multinominal logit, the<br />

dependent variable has a natural order.<br />

103

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