An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

MODEL OF POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR CULTIVARS IN UGANDA 83
by local farmers’ associations (de Vries
and Tonniessen 2001). This exercise shows
how a model of this type might be useful
in assessing the investments needed to
support the systematic dissemination of
improved planting material.
Third, the sensitivity of farmer demand
for improved planting material is demonstrated
for several public investment scenarios.
In the first scenario, we consider
different degrees of effectiveness in gene
insertion and expression. In the second
scenario, we model the insertion of multiple
compared to single traits. In the third
scenario, we add supporting investments in
infrastructure, education, and extension.
The first two investments are related to
technology development or investments in
agricultural R&D. The third rep resents investments
that can facilitate technology
diffusion among farmers. Economists who
study agricultural development have extensively
documented the impacts of public
investments in agricultural R&D, education,
extension, and infrastructure on the
rate of growth in agricultural productivity.
Although these investments can compete
for scarce public resources, they are often
complementary in their effects on total
productivity (Pingali and Heisey 2001;
Evenson, Pingali, and Schultz 2007). Here,
we use the sensitivity analysis to explore
similar relationships in farm-level data.
Client Prototypes
First, the prototypes of likely adopters were
compared across the seven cooking cultivars,
using the upper tails of the distribution
of predicted demand for planting material
for each cultivar. Households most likely to
adopt each one of the host cul tivars share
similar characteristics. Then, the prototypes
of likely adopters were compared to those
less likely to adopt the host cultivars by
using the upper and lower tails of the distribution
of predicted demand for planting
material. Significant differences were identified
between the prototypes of likely adopters
and nonadopters. Table 6.4 compares the
characteristics of households identified in
the upper and lower tails of this distribution
for the most widely grown cooking cultivar,
Nakitembe, as an example. here> 6.4near