An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

CHAPTER 1
Assessing the Impact of Technical
Innovations in African Agriculture
Melinda Smale
This chapter explains the motivation for the research reported in this monograph, placing
it in the context of previous research about the impacts of technical innovations in African
agriculture. While recognizing the limitations of impact assessment methods, it
is argued that social science research can play a useful role in support of technology development.
Interest in genetic transformation of East African highland bananas (EAHBs), among
other options for enhancing banana production, is explained. Genetic transformation of the
EAHB for pest and disease resistance represents a promising strategy for smallholder farmers,
because (1) biotic constraints are severe and are not easily addressed through conventional
breeding or methods of control; (2) exports on the world market are currently negligible; and
(3) the crop is important for food as well as cash, generating rural income. Finally, contributions
of this research are mentioned and the structure of the report is summarized.
Genetic improvement in seed (planting material, in the broadest sense) is an important
component of agricultural growth for nations and regions in the process of economic development.
Asia’s Green Revolutions in rice and wheat are perhaps the most well-known examples
of dramatic agricultural growth associated with crop genetic improvement. The process emphasized
irrigated agriculture but was broad based, freeing labor and capital for the nonfarm
economy and benefiting consumers through lower food prices (Lipton and Longhurst 1989;
Rosegrant and Hazell 2000). Most experts agree that no such seed-based revolution has occurred
in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite frequent, though scattered, episodes of success. Technical
change in agriculture remains crucial to food supply and income generation in rural areas,
however.
The research compiled here was motivated by the need, expressed both by those who
conduct research on it and those who invest in it, to assess the economic impact of improved
banana technology on smallholder farmers in the Lake Victoria regions of Uganda and Tanzania.
Some of the improved technology explored in this report already exists, and some is
emerging, including genetic enhancement through crossing, genetic enhancement through
gene insertion to protect yields against pests and diseases, and soil fertility enhancement in
banana production through current recommended practices.
Assessing Economic Impacts Ex Ante
The reliability of impacts assessed ex ante depends on the extent to which the past can be used
to predict the future. Findings derived from past assessments of improved seed and related
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