An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

152 CHAPTER 10
In terms of specific biotic constraints, it
is less easy to pick winners among the technologies
currently under development. Mitigation
of the effects of bacteria wilt appears
to provide very large payoffs, especially if
that disease should continue its current
damaging trajectory. Improved soil fertility,
both in its own right and as a means of improving
resistance to biotic constraints and
ensuring long-term production sustainability,
appears to exhibit high potential payoffs
(second only to mitigation of bacteria wilt).
Increased adoption of the multipurpose
FHIA hybrids might have high payoffs from
the perspective of an increased stock of
more resistant materials, but appears unlikely
to happen without changes in consumer
preferences (Chapter 5). Prioritizing
among resistance to weevils, nematodes,
and black Sigatoka is particularly problematic,
given the confounding effects and/or
simultaneous occurrence of these constraints,
as noted in the farm-level analysis
and previous research (Chapter 6). This difficulty
is one evident reason why NARO has
favored tackling multiple constraints simultaneously.
Were the analysis able to take
account of the interaction effects of constraints,
the economic results might be quite
different.
There remain no shortage of methodological
and data issues surrounding the
analysis performed here, including the consideration
of research investment and diffusion
costs. The development of a complete
cost series was not possible within the time
frame of this research. Nevertheless, the
possibility of performing such improved
evaluations has been very greatly enhanced
by the databases, methods, and analysis applied
to the current analysis by Ugandan
scientists and their collaborators.
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