An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

150 CHAPTER 10
Table 10.8 Present value of gross benefits by banana technology scenario, Uganda
(thousand US$)
Producer benefits
Technology
scenario a
High productivity Medium productivity Low productivity
Semicommercial
Subsistence
Semicommercial
Subsistence
Semicommercial
Subsistence
Total
producer
benefits
Total
consumer
benefits
Total
benefits
4 578,410 145,123 40,118 87,337 13,578 22,828 887,394 494,026 1,381,420
5 371,697 114,302 47,446 106,419 17,683 18,809 676,356 371,840 1,048,196
14 237,903 65,795 13,916 18,433 4,096 15,914 356,057 351,765 707,822
6 211,415 8,677 31,256 38,810 10,350 40,584 341,092 338,911 680,003
1 56,410 63,365 24,478 103,878 9,989 –26,313 231,807 123,427 355,234
2 66,916 70,085 19,434 65,071 8,821 –12,774 217,553 118,386 335,939
3 21,600 28,739 7,621 72,245 9,659 –5,354 134,510 69,600 204,110
12 104,334 182 8,155 2,905 3,667 8,657 127,900 126,460 254,360
11 80,196 482 11,502 12,008 4,723 18,501 127,412 126,451 253,863
13 10,545 –8,638 9,778 10,612 10,190 62,289 94,776 91,704 186,480
7 51,701 7,857 5,839 4,042 2,543 10,664 82,646 82,164 164,810
10 37,617 7,695 2,504 2,180 432 –401 50,027 49,772 99,799
8 35,755 3,297 2,566 1,280 1,388 4,643 48,929 48,706 97,635
9 7,754 –974 4,450 4,940 3,741 23,011 42,922 42,255 85,177
Notes: Table entries are present values of gross benefits computed over a fixed 30-year period, even though different technologies have
different lag times before their potential benefits may be realized (for example, current best practices are available for adoption now,
whereas conventional breeding approaches may require up to 15 years before technologies become available for adoption). A discount rate
of 10 percent per year was used in all cases.
a See Table 10.6 for definitions of the technology scenarios.
ogy generation and dissemination (costs of
current best practices were not included—
these were treated as sunk costs). Some of
the data elements used in this parameterization
are reported in the tables above. The
analysis proceeds as an annual simulation
in which the future situation with regard to
the production, consumption, and price of
banana is computed with and without the
introduction of a new technology. The difference
between the economic impacts of
these two simulations on a yearly basis determines
the gross annual research benefits
attributable to the intervention. Table 10.8
presents the results of this analysis in terms
of the present value of gross benefits. here> 10.8near