An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

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148 CHAPTER 10
Table 10.7 Time to peak adoption and peak adoption level, by scenario
(years/percent)
scenario a commercial Subsistence commercial Subsistence commercial Subsistence
High productivity Medium productivity Low productivity
Technology Semi-
Semi-
Semi-
1 2/85 3/63 2/71 3/51 4/56 7/33
2 2/85 3/63 2/71 3/51 4/56 7/33
3 2/85 3/63 2/71 3/51 4/56 7/33
4 2/85 3/63 2/71 3/51 4/56 7/33
5 2/48 3/39 2/36 3/28 4/26 7/17
6 7/23 11/13 6/34 10/23 6/38 8/27
7 7/50 9/36 3/53 5/34 3/65 5/48
8 5/48 8/30 5/49 7/34 4/58 7/35
9 7/35 9/25 6/54 7/34 3/90 4/70
10 3/70 4/50 3/70 4/50 3/60 4/40
11 9/30 13/16 5/38 7/24 5/44 7/31
12 6/34 10/15 6/36 8/20 6/45 8/28
13 9/20 13/10 8/36 9/21 4/69 5/54
14 5/63 7/55 4/55 5/45 4/55 3/45
Source: Median values extracted from expert consultation survey undertaken by this study.
Notes: Table entries show two values: time lag to peak adoption (years)/peak level of adoption (percent)
following the successful development and release of a new technology. Current best practice (scenarios 1–6)
are already adopted to varying degrees in different production systems, and the maximum adoption levels
reported here are the expected cumulative maximum including current levels of adoption. Expected time lags
and adoption levels are predicated on maintained investment in dissemination services.
a See Table 10.6 for definitions of the technology scenarios.
for delays caused by regulatory procedures
associated with the testing, screening, and
registration of transgenic materials.
Extensive information about the characteristics
and potential impacts of technologies,
by production systems and over time,
was collected through the expert survey. 4
Table 10.7 reports only two of these parameters,
time to peak level of adoption from
technology release and the expected peak
level of adoption, by scenario. In the case of
current best practice, this time lag is relative
to 2005. Projected adoption lag times range
from 2 years for current best practice use by
semicommercial farmers to 10–13 years for
improved germplasm use by subsistence
farmers. Projected adoption levels range
from 85 percent of semicommercial farmers
in high-productivity areas using current best
practice to only 10–20 percent of subsistence
farmers using any of the improved
technologies.