An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

CHAPTER 10
Assessing the Potential Impact of Selected
Technologies on the Banana Industry in
Uganda
Robert Kalyebara, Stanley Wood, and Pamela Nahamya Abodi
In this chapter, an economic surplus approach is applied to assess the potential impact of a
range of current and emerging technologies. Specialists and experts guided the definition
of 6 banana production systems, determined according to productivity potential and the
commercial orientation of growers, and 14 technology scenarios that span current best practices
for managing bananas, genetic transformation, and conventional breeding. Simulations
indicate that current recommended scenarios could generate the highest levels of gross benefits,
assuming relatively high rates of adoption. Transgenic varieties resistant to major pests
and diseases currently affecting banana production in Uganda appear to generate greater potential
benefits than do conventional technologies. In part, this finding reflects expectations
that gene insertion is more effective at combating specific pests and diseases. Time lags associated
with R&D are also expected to be even longer for conventional banana improvement
than for genetic transformation, given the plant’s sterility.
Characterizing Banana Production Systems
Six banana production systems were defined for the purpose of this analysis, using the approach
taken by specialists in Uganda (Tushemereirwe et al. 2001). This categorization involved
the recognition of three classes of geographical area according to their intrinsic
biophysical suitability to support banana production (high-, medium-, and low-potential productivity
zones), in each of which production is subdivided into two categories according to
the production orientation of growers (semicommercial and subsistence). Most producers
maintain banana plantations primarily to meet food security and cultural needs, only intermittently
entering the market as opportunities and needs arise. There is a much smaller but growing
share of farmers whose main focus is to produce for the banana market. Clearly, production
and technology use decisions, and response to market opportunities and signals, are
distinct for these two groups.
Table 10.1 summarizes the main characteristics of the six systems with respect to the
production of cooking bananas (the endemic AAA-EA cultivar group matooke, as well as
some exotic FHIA hybrids). Across all areas in Uganda, a total of some 5.5 million tons of
cooking bananas are produced from about 450,000 ha of cropland, at a rough national average
yield of around 12 tons per ha (UBOS 2002). Beer and sweet cultivars account for an
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