An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

USE OF HYBRID CULTIVARS IN KAGERA REGION, TANZANIA 137
ence with banana production of the primary
decisionmaker does not appear to influence
the likelihood of using banana hybrids. Neither
does the composition of households in
terms of the proportion of dependents to active
members.
Regression analysis shows the marginal
effect of factors on adoption and impact in
terms of the average relationship for the
sample of households. A comparison of
households with a high statistical likelihood
of growing banana hybrids and those with a
low likelihood of using them, in areas exposed
to program interventions, provides
different insights into adoption patterns in
study villages. Other indications of program
impact are revealed through comparing
the characteristics of households in the
exposed areas, given adoption, and those
located in nonexposed areas. These comparisons,
made by combining the fitted regression
model with descriptive statistics,
are presented in the next two sections.
Comparisons of Adopters
and Nonadopters in
Exposed Areas
First, the fitted model was used to predict
hybrid use for the 260 households in the
sample. The top and bottom tails of the
distribution of predicted values for hybrid
use are used to represent the profiles of
likely adopters and nonadopters’ of the hybrids,
considering initially only the subset
of 220 households located in the exposed
areas. The cutoff point used is 20 percent,
with 44 households representing each group,
respectively. Mean comparisons are summarized
in Table 9.4 for outcomes related to
productivity, consumption and sale of bananas,
as well as general household-related
characteristics. here> 9.4near