An Economic Assessment of Banana Genetic Improvement and ...

MODEL OF POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR CULTIVARS IN UGANDA 87
resistance to biotic constraints is likely to
have an impact on distribution of banana
products only when accompanied by the
improvement of market-related infrastructure
(for example, roads).
Conclusions
The theoretical framework of the agricultural
household is appropriate for studying
cultivar demand decisions in Sub-Saharan
Africa, because it takes into consideration
imperfections in input and output markets.
The trait-based adoption model presented
here is particularly well suited to analysis of
gene-insertion technologies compared to
the earlier generation of improved cultivars
bred through crossing. With these technologies,
genes are inserted into a host cultivar
without affecting the levels of other traits
and attributes. Host cultivars can be modern
cultivars bred by scientists or landraces
maintained by farmers. Some crops are difficult
to improve through crossing, as is the
case for EAHBs. A key advantage of genetic
transformation in banana improvement
is that it is possible to introduce desirable
traits without changing the end
product—something that is very difficult to
accomplish through conventional breeding.
Postestimation analyses are then used to
illustrate several policy messages. First,
comparisons of household prototypes with
high and low predicted demand for potential
host cultivars indicate that the clients for
transgenic planting material are likely to be
poorer, subsistence-oriented farmers in
areas greatly affected by biotic constraints.
Hence, this technology is potentially propoor.
The choice of host cultivar for genetic
transformation will probably have social
consequences, and there are also direct costs
associated with transforming multiple banana
cultivars. Second, for biotic pressures
and complexes, such as those considered
here, insertion of multiple traits could have
large benefits in terms of farmer demand for
improved planting material, although these
advantages must be weighed against the
cost of transformation and regulatory aspects.
Third, success in technology generation
is a necessary but not a sufficient condition
for its widespread use. Past experience
has amply demonstrated that other factors
can impede the adoption of even the most
promising scientific innovations. The approach
used here illustrates the potential
effect of effective gene insertion but also the
role that other public investments in education,
extension, and infrastructure can play
in supporting farmer demand for the new
technology.
In general, targeting traits that reflect
local production conditions and consumption
preferences and identifying endemic
banana cultivars as host plants may lead to
greater acceptability of genetically engineered
banana cultivars. The trait-based,
household model of demand for genetically
engineered planting material is amenable to
different crops and settings. Although beyond
the scope of the farm-level research
analyzed here, other important aspects of
introducing genetically engineered food
crops in developing economies clearly merit
investigation. These include the appropriate
design of biosafety regulatory frameworks,
consumer attitudes toward biosafety risk,
and potential challenges of marketing transgenic
products in domestic and foreign
markets.
Genetic transformation is only one of
several strategies to improve banana productivity,
and one that depends heavily on
other factors, including relieving technical
constraints to transformation and establishing
an appropriate biosafety framework.
The next three chapters investigate two
other strategies: the adoption of recommended
management practices (Chapters 7
and 8) and the adoption of banana hybrids
(Chapter 9).