Publications - Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

Publication List: Arnulf Grubler
Books
Grubler, A. and Wilson, C. (eds), 2013 (in press), Energy Technology Innovation:
Learning from Historical Successes and Failures, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK.
Grubler, A. and Fisk, D. (eds), 2012, Energizing Sustainable Cities: Assessing
Urban Energy, Routledge, 200 pp. (ISBN 978-1849714389 hardback,
ISBN 978-1849714396 paperback).
Grubler, A., 2004, Technology and Global Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, (ISBN 0–521–54332–0 paperback). Chinese translation
published by Tsinghua University Press, Beijing, China. (ISBN 7302058938).
Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Nordhaus, W.D. (eds), 2002, Technological
Change and the Environment, Resources for the Future Press, Washington,
DC, USA, 407 pp. (ISBN 1-891853-46-5).
Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., deVries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S.,
Gregory, K., Grubler, A. et al., 2000, Emissions Scenarios, Special Report
of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
IPCC, Geneva, and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 595 pp.
(ISBN 0-521-80081-1 hardback, ISBN 0-521-80493-0 paperback).
Grubler, A., 1998, Technology and Global Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 445 pp. (ISBN 0-521-59109-0).
Nakicenovic, N., Grubler, A. and McDonald, A. (eds), 1998, Global Energy
Perspectives, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 299 pp. (ISBN 0-
521-64200-0 hardback, ISBN 0-521-64569-7 paperback).
Grubler, A., Jefferson, M., McDonald, A., Messner, S., Nakicenovic, N., Rogner,
H.-H. and Schrattenholzer, L., 1995, Global Energy Perspectives to 2050
and Beyond, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and World
Energy Council, WEC, London, UK, 113 pp.
Grubler, A., Hoell, O., Lichem, W. and Rakos, C. (eds), 1994, Environment and
Development, Dachs-Verlag, Vienna, Austria, 244 pp. (ISBN 3-85191-020-
6) [in German].
Nakicenovic, N. and Grubler, A. (eds), 1991, Diffusion of Technologies and
Social Behavior, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, 604 pp. (ISBN 3-540-
53846-1).
Gilli, P.-V., Nakicenovic, N., Grubler, A. and Bodda, L., 1990, Technological
Progress, Structural Change, and Efficient Energy Use, Vol. 6,
Schriftenreihe des Verbundkonzerns, Verbundgesellschaft, Vienna, Austria,
331 pp. [In German].
November 20, 2013 1

Grubler, A., 1990, The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures, Dynamics of Evolution
and Technological Change in Transport, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg,
Germany, 305 pp. (ISBN 3-7908-0479-7). 2nd reprint edition 1999,
International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
(ISBN 3-7045-0135-2).
Special Journal Issues
Foray, D. and Grubler, A. (eds), 1996, Technology and the environment,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1), 1–124. (ISSN 0040-
1625).
Nakicenovic, N., Grubler, A., Inaba, A., Messner, S., Nilsson, S., Nishimura, Y.,
Rogner, H.-H., Schaefer, A., Schrattenholzer, L., Strubegger, M., Swisher,
J., Victor, D. and Wilson, D., 1993, Longterm strategies for mitigating global
warming, Energy – The International Journal, 18(5), 401–609. (ISSN 0360-
5442). Reprinted as RR-93-11, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Nakicenovic, N. and Grubler, A. (eds), 1991, From democracy to chain saws:
New perspectives on innovation diffusion, Technological Forecasting and
Social Change, 39(1-2), 1–231. (ISSN 0040-1625).
Peer Reviewed Articles, Book Chapters, and Research Reports
McCollum, D.L., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Kolp, P., Grubler, A., Makovski, M.,
Nakicenovic, N., 2013. Climate policy can help resolve energy security
and air pollution challenges. Climatic Change, 119(2):479-494,
doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0710-y
Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Bauer, N., Krey, V., Riahi, K.: 2013, Future capacity
growth of energy technologies: Are scenarios consistent with historical
evidence? Climatic Change, 118(2):381-395, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-
0618-y
Gallagher, K.S., A. Grubler, L. Kuhl, G. Nemet, C. Wilson: 2012. The Energy
Technology Innovation System. Annual Review of Environment and
Resources, 37:137-62, doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-060311-133915.
Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Gallagher, K. S., Nemet, G.F.: 2012, Marginalization of
end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection. Nature
Climate Change, 2(11), 780-788, doi:10.1038/nclimate1576.
Grubler, A.: 2012, Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales,
Energy Policy, (50), 8-16, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.070.
Grubler, A., Johansson, T., Mundaca , L., Nakicenovic, N., Pachauri, S., Riahi, K.,
Rogner, H-H. and Strupeit, L., 2012, Energy Primer, Chapter 1, in Global
Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International
November 20, 2013 2

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria, (ISBN
9781107005198 Hardback, ISBN 9780521182935 Paperback), pp. 99-150.
Grubler, A., Bai, X., Buettner, T., Dhakal, S., Fisk, D.J., Ichinose, T., Keirstead,
J.E., Sammer, G., Satterthwaite, D., Schulz, N., Shah, N., Steinberger, J.
and Weisz, H., 2012, Urban Energy Systems, Chapter 18, in Global Energy
Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria, (ISBN 9781107005198
Hardback, ISBN 9780521182935 Paperback), pp. 1307-1400.
Grubler, A., Aguayo, F., Gallagher, K., Hekkert, M., Jiang, K., Mytelka, L., Neij, L.,
Nemet, G. and Wilson, C., 2012, Policies for the Energy Technology
Innovation System (ETIS), Chapter 24, in Global Energy Assessment –
Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Vienna, Austria, (ISBN 9781107005198 Hardback, ISBN
9780521182935 Paperback), pp.1665-1744.
Riahi, K., F. Dentener, D. Gielen, A. Grubler, J. Jewell, Z. Klimont, V. Krey, D.
McCollum, S. Pachauri, S. Rao, B. van Ruijven, D. P. van Vuuren and C.
Wilson: 2012, Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development, Chapter 17,
in Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
(ISBN 9781107005198 Hardback, ISBN 9780521182935 Paperback), pp.
1203-1306.
Wilson, C., and Grubler, A., 2011, Lessons from the history of technological
change for clean energy scenarios and policies. Natural Resources Forum,
35(3), 165-184.
Grubler, A., 2010, The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative
learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38(9), 5174–5188 (September 2010).
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.05.003.
Grubler, A., and Riahi, K., 2010, Do governments have the right mix in their
energy R&D portfolios? Carbon Management, 1(1), 79–87. doi:
10.4155/cmt.10.16.
Manning, M.R., Edmonds, J., Emori, S., Grubler, A., Hibbard, K., Joos, F.,
Kainuma, M., Keeling, R.F., Kram,T., Manning, A.C., Meinshausen, M.,
Moss, R., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K, Rose, S.K., Smith, S., Swart, R. and
van Vuuren, D.P., 2010, Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO 2 emission
scenarios, Nature Geoscience, 3(6), 376–377.
Grubler, A. and Pachauri, S., 2009, Problems with burden-sharing proposal
among one billion high emitters. Proceedings National Academy Sciences
(US), 106(43), E122-E123 (27 October 2009).
November 20, 2013 3

Ma, T., Grubler, A. and Nakamori, Y., 2009, Modeling technology adoption for
sustainable development under increasing returns, uncertainty, and
heterogeneous agents, European Journal of Operations Research, 195(1),
296–306.
Krey, V., Canadell, JG., Nakicenovic, N., Abe, Y., Andruleit, H., Archer, D.,
Grubler, A., Hamilton, NTM., Johnson, A., Kostov, V., Lamarque, J-
F., Langhorne, N., Nisbet, EG., O'Neill, BC., Riahi, K., Riedel, M., Wang,
W. and Yakushev, V., 2009, Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or
climate threat? Environmental Research Letters, 4(3), 034007 (7 September
2009).
Grubler, A., 2009, Determinants of the future of fossil extractive industries.
BHM- Berg- und Huettenmaennische Monatshefte, 154(6), 243-248 (June
2009).
Grubler, A., 2008, Energy transitions, in Encyclopedia of Earth, Cutler J.
Cleveland (ed.), Washington, D.C.: Environmental Informat, [First published
in the Encyclopedia of Earth August 29, 2006; Last revised June 3, 2008;
[Available online only]. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_transitions.
Ma, T. and Grubler, A., 2008, The evolution of technological complexity: An
agent–based simulation model of the global energy system, in A. Golub and
A. Markandya (eds), Modeling Environment–Improving Technological
Innovations under Uncertainty, Routledge, pp. 205–244. (ISBN 10:0-415-
46376-9).
Dearing, J.A., Graumlich, L.J., Grove, R.H., Grubler, A., Haberl, H., Hole, F.,
Pfister, C. and van der Leeuw, S., 2007, Integrating socio–environmental
interactions over Centennial timescales: Needs and issues, in R. Constanza,
L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds), Sustainability or collapse: An
integrated history and future of people on Earth, Dahlem University and MIT
Press, Cambridge, pp. 243–274. (ISBN 13:978-0-262-03366-4).
Grubler A., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Wagner, F. et al., 2007, Introduction and
overview, in K. Riahi and N. Nakicenovic (eds), Greenhouse Gases -
Integrated Assessment, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
Special Issue, 74(7), 873–886, September 2007. (ISSN 0040-1625).
Electronically available: doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.07.009.
Grubler A., O´Neill, B., Riahi, K., Chirkov, V., Goujon, A., Kolp, P., Prommer, I.,
Scherbov, S. and Slentoe, E., 2007, Regional, national, and spatially explicit
scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES, in K.
Riahi and N. Nakicenovic (eds), Greenhouse Gases - Integrated
Assessment, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Special Issue,
74(7), 980–1029, September 2007. (ISSN 0040-1625). Electronically
available: doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.023.
Halsnaes, K., Shukla, P., Ahuja, D., Akumu, G., Beale, R., Edmonds, J., Gollier,
C., Grubler, A. et al., 2007, Framing issues, Chapter 2, in Climate Change
November 20, 2013 4

2007 - Mitigation, Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in B. Metz, O.R.
Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds), Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 117-167.
Riahi, K., Grubler A. and Nakicenovic, N., 2007, Scenarios of longterm
socioeconomic and environmental development under climate stabilization,
in K. Riahi and N. Nakicenovic (eds), Greenhouse Gases – Integrated
Assessment, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Special Issue,
74(7), 887–935, September 2007. (ISSN 0040-1625).
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026.
Grubler, A., 2006, Doing more with less: Improving the environment through
Green Engineering, Environment, 48(2), 22–37. (ISSN 0013–9157).
Grubler, A., O’Neill, B., van Vuuren, D., 2006, Avoiding hazards of best-guess
climate scenarios, Nature, 440, 740.
O´Neill, B., Crutzen, P., Grubler, A., Duong, M.H., Keller, K. et al., 2006, Learning
and climate change. Commentary, Climate Policy, 6, 585–589. (ISSN 1469-
3062)
Riahi, K., Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 2006, Long–term emissions and
climate stabilization scenarios, Interim Report, IR–06–018, IIASA
Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI), International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Corell, R., Vessuri, H., Balasubramanian, D., Dasgupta, P., Gupta, A., Grassl, H.,
Grubler, A. et al., 2005, Harnessing science, technology and innovation for
sustainable development. A Report from the ICSU-ISTS-TWAS Consortium
ad hoc Advisory Group. International Council for Science (ICSU), Paris,
France. (ISBN 0–930357–63–9).
Grubler, A., 2004, Transitions in energy use, Encyclopedia of Energy, Vol. 6,
163–177. (ISSN 0–12–176480–X).
Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., Fenhann, J., et al., 2004,
Emissions scenarios: A final response, Energy & Environment, 15(1), 11–24.
(ISSN 0958–305X).
Grubler, A., 2003, Technology, global change and industrial ecology, in D. Bourg
and S. Erkman (eds), Perspectives on Industrial Ecology, Greenleaf
Publishing Ltd., Sheffield, UK, pp. 46–57. (ISBN 1-1874719-462).
Nakicenovic, N., Grubler, A., Gaffin, S., Jung, T.-T. et al., 2003, IPCC SRES
Revisited: A response, Energy & Environment, 14(2-3), 187–214. (ISSN
0958–305X).
O´Neill, B., Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. et al., 2003, Planning for future energy
resources, Science, 300(5619), 581-582 (25 April 2003). (ISSN 0013–936X).
Grubler, A. and Gritsevskyi, A., 2002, A model of endogenous technological
change through uncertain returns on innovation, in A. Grubler, N.
November 20, 2013 5

Nakicenovic and W.D. Nordhaus (eds), Technological Change and the
Environment, Resources for the Future Press, Washington, DC, USA, pp.
280–319. (ISBN 1-891853-46-5).
Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Nordhaus, W.D. 2002, Induced technological
change and the environment: An introduction, in A. Grubler, N. Nakicenovic
and W.D. Nordhaus (eds), Technological Change and the Environment,
Resources for the Future Press, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 1–8. (ISBN 1-
891853-46-5).
Grubler, A., 2001, Trends in global emissions: Carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen,
Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, 3, 35–53. (ISBN 0471–
97796–9).
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 2001, Identifying dangers in an uncertain
climate, Nature, 412 (6842) (5 July 2001), 15. (ISSN 0028-0836).
Hourcade, J.C., Ha-Duong, M., Grubler, A. and Tol, R.S.J., 2001, INASUD
project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies, Integrated
Assessment, 2(1), 31-35. (ISSN 1389-5176).
Kates, R.W., Clark, W.C., Corell, R., Hall, J.M., Jaeger, C.C., Lowe, I., McCarthy,
J.J., Schellnhuber, H.J., Bolin, B., Dickson, N.M., Faucheux, S., Gallopin,
G.C., Grubler, A., Huntley, B., Jaeger, J., Johda, N.S., Kasperson, R.E.,
Magogunje, A., Matson, P., Mooney, H., Moore, B., O’Riordan, T. and
Svedin, U., 2001, Sustainability science, Science, 292 (5517), 641-642 (27
April 2001). (ISSN 0036-8075). Reprinted as RR-01-07, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Prather, M., Ehhalt, D., Dentener, F., Derwent, R., Grubler, A. (contributing
author) et al., 2001, Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, Chapter
4 in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report,
Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC,
Geneva, Switzerland. (ISBN 0-521-807670 hardback, ISBN 0-521-01495-6
paperback).
Grubler, A., 2000, Managing the global environment, Environmental Science and
Technology, 34(7), 184A-187A. (ISSN 0013-936X). Reprinted as RR-00-12,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 2000, Resources and society, Berg- und Huettenmaennische
Monatshefte, 10, 386–394. (ISSN 0005-8912). [In German].
Nakicenovic, N. and Grubler, A., 2000, Energy and the protection of the
atmosphere, International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 13(1-3), 4-57.
(ISSN 0954-7118). Reprinted as RR-00-18, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Nakicenovic, N., Davidson, O., Davis, G., Grubler, A., Kram, T., Lebre La
Roverere, E., Metz, B., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Sankovski, A.,
Shukla, P., Swart, R., Watson, R., Dadi, Z., 2000, Emissions Scenarios,
Summary for Policy Makers, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
November 20, 2013 6

Geneva. (ISBN 92-9169-113-5). Also published in French (ISBN 92-9169-
213-1), Russian (92-9169-313-8), and Spanish (92-9169-413-4).
Schlesinger, M.E., Malyshev, S., Rozanov, E.V., Yang, F., Andronova, N.G., de
Vries, B., Grubler, A., Morita, T., Penner, Y., Pepper, W., Sankovski, A.,
Zhang, Y., 2000, Geographical distributions of temperature change for
scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 167–193. (ISSN 0040-1625).
Grubler, A., 1999, Long-term energy futures: The critical role of technology,
Revue de l’Energie, 508 July-August, 373-384. (ISSN 0303-240). Reprinted
as RR-00-2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria.
Grubler, A., 1999, Global energy perspectives: 2050 and beyond, Energy: The
Next Fifty Years, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD), Paris, France, pp. 41–61. (ISBN 92-64-17016-2). Also published in
French (ISBN-92-64-27016-7).
Grubler, A., 1999, Uncertainties in social and economic projections, in T.R.
Carter, M. Hulme and D. Viner (eds), Representing Uncertainty in Climate
Change Scenarios and Impact Studies. ECLAT-2 Report No. 1, Helsinki
Workshop, 14-16 April, 1999. Climate Research Unit, University East Anglia,
Norwich, UK, pp. 55-56. (ISBN 0-902170-25-2).
Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Victor, D.G., 1999, Modeling technological
change: Implications for the global environment, Annual Review of Energy
and the Environment, 24, 545-569. (ISSN 1056-3466). Reprinted as RR-00-
3, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Victor, D.G., 1999, Dynamics of energy
technologies and global change, Energy Policy, 27(5), 247–280. (ISSN
0301-4215). Reprinted as RR-99-7, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 1998, A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios,
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4), 383–418.
(ISSN 1381-2386). Reprinted as RR-99-5, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 1998, From well or mine to the consumer: Long-term energy
perspectives, Berg- und Huettenmaennische Monatshefte, 12, 449–456.
(ISSN 0005-8912). [In German].
Grubler, A., 1998, Global energy perspectives, Gas-Eaux-Eaux Usees, 6, 462–
470. (ISSN 0036-8008). [In German].
Grubler, A. and Messner, S., 1998, Technological change and the timing of
mitigation measures, Energy Economics, 20(5-6), 495–512. (ISSN 0140-
9883). Reprinted as RR-99-1, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
November 20, 2013 7

Grubler, A. 1996, Time for a change: On the patterns of diffusion of innovation,
Daedalus, 125(3), 19–42. (ISSN 0011-5266). Reprinted as RR-97-3,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Reprinted in J.H. Ausubel and H.D. Langford (eds), 1997, Technological
Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press,
Washington D.C., USA, pp.14–32. (ISBN 0-309-05133-9).
Foray, D. and Grubler, A., 1996, Technology and the environment: An overview,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1), 3–13. (ISSN 0040-
1625). Reprinted as RR-97-5, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A. and Messner, S., 1996, Technological uncertainty, in N. Nakicenovic,
W.D. Nordhaus, R. Richels and F.L. Toth (eds), Climate Change: Integrating
Science, Economics, and Policy, CP-96-1, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 295–314.
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1996, Decarbonizing the Global Energy System,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1), 97–110. (ISSN 0040-
1625). Reprinted as RR-97-6, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1996, Global energy perspectives 2050,
Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, 46(5), 304–312. (ISSN 0720-6240). [In
German].
Grubler, A., Jefferson, M. and Nakicenovic, N., 1996, Global energy
perspectives: A summary of the joint study by the International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, 51(3), 237–264. (ISSN 0040-1625).
Michaelis, L. (convening lead author), Bleviss, D., Orfeuil, J.-P., Pischinger, R.,
(principal lead authors); Nakicenovic, N., et al. (lead authors); Grubler, A., et
al., (contributing authors), 1996, Mitigation options in the transportation
sector, in R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera and R.H. Moss (eds), Climate
Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change:
Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 681–712. (ISBN
0-521-56431-X Hardback, ISBN 0-521-56437-9 Paperback).
Nakicenovic, N. (convening lead author); Grubler, A., Ishitani, H., Johansson, T.,
Marland, G., Moreira, J-R., Rogner, H.-H., (lead authors), 1996, Energy
primer, in R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera and R.H. Moss (eds), Climate
Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change:
Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY,
USA, pp. 77–92. (ISBN 0-521-56431-X Hardback, ISBN 0-521-56437-9
November 20, 2013 8

Paperback). Reprinted as RR-97-1, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Alcamo, J., Bouwman, A., Edmonds, J., Grubler, A., Morita, T. and Sugandhy, A.,
1995, An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios, in J.T. Houghton,
L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, H. Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris and
K. Maskell (eds), Climate Change 1994, Reports of Working Groups I and III
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 251–304. (ISBN 0 521 550556). Reprinted as
RR-95-10, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria.
Ausubel, J.H. and Grubler, A., 1995, Working less and living longer: Long-term
trends in working time and time budgets, Technological Forecasting and
Social Change, 50(3), 195–213. (ISSN 0040-1625). Reprinted as RR-96-4,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Buettner, T. and Grubler, A., 1995, The birth of a “green generation”?
Generational dynamics of resource consumption patterns, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, 50(2), 113–134. (ISSN 0040-1625).
Reprinted as RR-96-3, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A. and Kirsch, D., 1995, Social behavior: Limiting global change or limits
for mitigation?, in A. Speranza, S. Tibaldi and R. Fantechi (eds), Global
Change, Proceedings of the First Demetra Meeting, European Commission,
Brussels, Belgium, pp. 392–409. (ISBN 92-826-7757-5).
Grubler, A., 1994, Industrialization as a historical phenomenon, in R. Socolow
(ed.), Industrial Ecology and Global Change, University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 43–68. (ISBN 0 521 47197 4). Reprinted as RR-
95-9, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria.
Grubler, A., 1994, Technology and global change: Land-use, past and present, in
W.B. Meyer and B.L. Turner (eds), Changes in Land Use and Land Cover:
A Global Perspective, Cambridge University Press, London, UK, pp. 287–
328. (ISBN 0 521 47085 4).
Grubler, A., 1994, Energy strategies and CO 2 mitigation, in W. Fischer and H.
Schuetz (eds), Social Aspects of Climate Change, Konferenzen des
Forschungszentrums Juelich, (KFA) Juelich, Germany, pp. 36–71. (ISBN 3-
89336-131-6). [In German].
Grubler, A., 1994, The paradox of scientific-technical development, in A. Grubler,
O. Hoell, W. Lichem and C. Rakos (eds), Environment and Development,
Dachs-Verlag, Vienna, Austria, pp. 78–92. (ISBN 3-85191-020-6). [In
German].
November 20, 2013 9

Grubler, A., 1994, Global energy strategies, Handbuch der Umwelttechnik 1994,
pp. 50–55. Trend Commerz Gesellschaft mbH, Linz, Austria. (ISBN 3-
900834-08-3). [In German].
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1994, International burden sharing in
greenhouse gas reduction, RR-94-9, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 94 pp. Revised version of Grubler, A.
and Nakicenovic, N., 1992, International Burden Sharing in Greenhouse
Gas Reduction, Environment Working Paper 55, World Bank, Washington,
DC, USA.
Grubler, A., 1993, Energy and environment: Post UNCED, in P. Ghosh and A.
Jaitly (eds), The Road from Rio: Environment and Development Policy
Issues in Asia, Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, India, pp. 104–
112. (ISBN 81-85419-02-7).
Grubler, A., 1993, The transportation sector: Growing demands and emissions,
Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 3(2), 179–199. (ISSN 0970-3888).
Reprinted in R. Krishnan (ed.), Growing Numbers and Dwindling Resources,
Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, India, pp. 44-60. (ISBN 81-
85419-08-6). Reprinted as RR-94-5, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1992, International burden sharing in
greenhouse gas reduction, Working Paper 55, Environmental Policies and
Research Division, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. Revised
version reprinted as RR-94-9, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Schaefer, A., 1992, Dynamics of transport and
energy systems: History of development and a scenario for the future, World
Energy Council (WEC) 15th Congress, Division 3 Energy and Development,
Technical Session 3.3:219-240, World Energy Council, Madrid, Spain.
Reprinted as RR-93-19, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 1991, Energy in the 21st century: From resource to environmental
and lifestyle constraints, Entropie, 164/165, 29–33. (ISSN 0013-9084).
Grubler, A., 1991, Introduction to diffusion theory, in R. Ayres, W. Haywood and I.
Tchijov (eds), Computer Integrated Manufacturing, Vol. 3, Models, Case
Studies and Forecasts of Diffusion, Chapman and Hall, London, UK, pp. 3–
52. (ISBN 0 412 40460 5).
Grubler, A., 1991, Diffusion: Long-term patterns and discontinuities,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 39(1-2), 159–180. (ISSN
0040-1625).
Foray, D. and Grubler, A., 1991, Morphological analysis, diffusion and lock-out of
technologies: Ferrous casting in France and the FRG, Research Policy,
19(6), 535–550. (ISSN 0048-7333).
November 20, 2013 10

Foray, D. and Grubler, A., 1991, Morphological analysis, diffusion and
technological evolution, in J. De Bandt and D. Foray (eds), Economic
Evaluation of R&D and of Technological Change, Editions du CNRS, Paris,
France, pp. 205–227. (ISBN 2-222-04577-0). [In French].
Grubler, A. and Fujii, Y., 1991, Inter-generational and spatial equity issues of
carbon accounts, Energy–The International Journal, 16(11-12), 1397–1416.
(ISSN 0360-5442). Reprinted as RR-92-6, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1991, Long waves, technology diffusion, and
substitution, Review, 14(2), 313–342. (ISSN 0147-9032). Reprinted as RR-
91-17, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria.
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1991, Evolution of transport systems: Past and
future, RR-91-8, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria, 97 pp.
Nakicenovic, N. and Grubler, A., 1991, From democracy to chain saws: New
perspectives on innovation diffusion, Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, 39(1-2), 1–10. (ISSN 0040-1625).
Grubler, A., 1990, Technology diffusion in a long-wave context: The case of the
steel and coal industries, in T. Vasko, R.U. Ayres and L. Fontvielle (eds),
Life Cycles and Long Waves, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, pp. 117–
146. (ISBN 3-540-52473-8).
Grubler, A., 1990, Long-term energy perspectives and the potential role of
natural gas, Gas-Eaux-Eaux Usees, 4, 259–272. (ISSN 0036-8008). [In
French].
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1990, Development of energy and transport
systems, in H.-H. Rogner, A.M. Khan and G. Furlan (eds), Economics,
Modelling, Planning and Management of Energy, World Scientific,
Singapore, pp. 80–115. (ISBN 9971509490).
Grubler, A. and Nowotny, H., 1990, Towards the fifth Kondratiev upswing:
Elements of an emerging new growth phase and possible development
trajectories, International Journal of Technology Management, 5(4), 431–
471. (ISSN 0267-5730). Reprinted as RR-90-7, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Astakhov, A., Grubler, A. and Mookhin, A., 1990, Technology diffusion in the
coal-mining industry of the USSR: An interim assessment, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, 38(3), 223–256. (ISSN 0040-1625).
Reprinted as RR-91-4, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., Buettner, T. and Heilig, G., 1990, Self-organizing dynamics,
consequences of the GDR integration, Bild der Wissenschaft, 11, 136–139.
(ISSN 0006-2375). [In German].
November 20, 2013 11

Grubler, A., 1989, Long-term energy perspectives and the potential role of
natural gas, Gas-Eaux-Eaux Usees, 12, 763–777. (ISSN 0036-8008). [In
German].
Grubler, A., 1988, The struggle for existence: Long-term dynamics of
infrastructure and transport technology development, Schweizer Ingenieur
und Architekt, 8, 197–207. Reprinted in: Schriftenreihe der
Forschungsgesellschaft fuer das Verkehrs und Strassenwesen, 87, 22–54,
Oesterreichischer Ingenieur- und Architektenverein, Vienna. [In German].
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1988, The dynamic evolution of methane
technologies, in T.H. Lee, H.R. Linden, D.A. Dreyfus and T. Vasko (eds),
The Methane Age, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 13-44.
(ISBN 90-277-2745-7). Reprinted as WP-87-002, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Ausubel, J.H., Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1988, Carbon dioxide emissions
in a methane economy, Climatic Change, 12, 245–263. (ISSN 0165-0009).
Reprinted as RR-88-7, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., Moeller, K.P. and Rogner, H.H., 1988, Natural Gas: Bridge to a
hydrogen age? Bild der Wissenschaft, 10, 48–55. (ISSN 0006-2375). [In
German].
Grubler, A., 1987, The rise and fall of infrastructures, Der oeffentliche Sektor, 3/4,
52–83. [In German].
Grubler, A., 1987, From a petroleum to a methane age, Gas-Eaux-Eaux Usees 6,
356–362. (ISSN 0036-8008). [In German]. Gas-Eaux-Eaux Usees, 10, 625–
632. [In French]. Reprinted in: Schweizer Ingenieur und Architekt, 40, 1148–
1155; Schweizer Maschinenmarkt, 24, 20–27; Schweizer Technische
Zeitschrift, 13, 9–17; Energie, (June 1988), 4–11.
Amann, M. and Grubler, A., 1986, Marginal costs of SO2 reduction in Austria,
Wirtschaftspolitische Blaetter, 4, 467–484. [In German].
Grubler, A., 1984, Natural resource commitments of long-term energy supply
options, in B.N. Kursunoglu, A. Perlmutter and L. Scott (eds), Global Energy
Assessment and Outlook, Harwood Academic Publishers, New York, pp.
305-323. (ISBN 3-7186-0224-5).
Astakhov, A. and Grubler, A., 1984, Resource requirements and economics of
the coal mining process: A comparative analysis of mines in selected
countries, RR-84-13, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria, 213 pp.
Grenon, M., Grubler, A. and Merzeau, J.M., 1981, A WELMM (water, energy,
land, manpower, materials) approach to the large-scale extraction process,
in R.F. Meyer and C.T. Steele (eds), The Future of Heavy Crude Oils and
Tar Sands, MacGraw-Hill, New York, pp. 824–831. (ISBN 07-041741-5).
November 20, 2013 12

Cellerier, M. and Grubler, A., 1979, A comparison of energy chains, Revue de
l’Energie, 316 (June-July), 505–512. [In French].
Grenon, M. and Grubler, A., 1979, WELMM study of coal mining, Revue de
l’Energie, 316 (June-July), 482–485. [In French].
Cellerier, M., Emard-Katsonis, F., Grenon, M. and Grubler, A., 1979, WELMM
comparison of energy scenarios, Revue de l’Energie, 316 (June-July), 516–
529. [In French].
IIASA Interim Reports, Working Papers, Collaborative Papers, and Status
Reports (posted at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/search/publication.php)
Wilson, C. and Grubler, A., 2011, A Comparative Analysis of Annual Market
Investments in Energy Supply and End-use Technologies. IIASA Interim
Report IR-11-032, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Wilson, C. and Grubler, A., 2011, Lessons from the history of technology and
global change for the emerging clean technology cluster. IIASA Interim
Report IR-11-001, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 2009, An Assessment of the Costs of the French Nuclear PWR
Program 1970-2000. Interim Report IR-09-036, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Ma, T., Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Arthur, W.B., 2008, Technologies as
agents of change: A simulation model of the evolving complexity of the
global energy system, Interim Report, IR–08–021, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 1995, Time for a change: Rates of diffusion of ideas, technologies
and social behaviors, WP-95-82, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 40 pp.
Grubler, A., 1995, Industrialization as historical phenomenon, WP-95-29,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 64
pp.
Grubler, A., Jefferson, M. and Nakicenovic, N., 1995, A summary of the joint
IIASA and WEC study on long-term energy perspectives, WP-95-102,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 31
pp.
Grubler, A., 1994, A comparison of global and regional energy emission
scenarios, WP-94-132, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria, 96 pp.
Ausubel, J.H. and Grubler, A., 1994, Working less and living longer: Long-term
trends in working time and time budgets, WP-94-99, International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 22 pp.
November 20, 2013 13

Buettner, T. and Grubler, A., 1994, The birth of a “green generation”?
Generational dynamics of resource consumption patterns, WP-94-79,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 22
pp.
Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Schaefer, A., 1993, Summary of IPCC/EIS-
IIASA International Workshop on Energy-Related Greenhouse Gases
Reduction and Removal, 1-2 October 1992, SR-93-1, International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 60 pp.
Grubler, A., 1992, Technology and global change: Land-use, past and present,
WP-92-2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria, 65 pp.
Astakhov, A., Grubler, A. and Mookhin, A., 1989, Technology diffusion in the
coal-mining industry of the USSR: An interim assessment, WP-89-46,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 40
pp.
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1987, The dynamic evolution of methane
technologies, WP-87-002, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 44 pp.
Katsonis, F., Grubler, A., Mazzoni, B. and Wooding, S., 1984, A proposal for an
environmental decision support system at the regional level: Concepts,
support methodology, tools and their terminology, CP-84-38, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 194 pp.
Grenon, M. and Grubler, A. (eds), 1983, Energy and mineral resources data
bases, CP-83-2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria, 286 pp.
Astakhov, A., Grenon, M. and Grubler, A., 1983, A data base for coal mines, in M.
Grenon and A. Grubler (eds), Energy and Mineral Resources Data Bases,
CP-83-2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria, pp. 191–210.
Cellerier, M. and Grubler, A., 1983, The facility data base: A process information
system on energy production and conversion facilities, in M. Grenon and A.
Grubler (eds), Energy and Mineral Resources Data Bases, CP-83-2,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp.
53–68.
Grubler, A. and Sheldon, R.P., 1983, Preparation of the IIASA-RSI conference
through teleconferencing, in M. Grenon and A. Grubler (eds), Energy and
Mineral Resources Data Bases, CP-83-2, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 276–281.
Grubler, A., Hoffmann, R. and McInnis, B.C., 1981, Process information systems
- a synthesis of two independent approaches, Working Paper 81-12-01,
Structural Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, 31 pp.
November 20, 2013 14

Reprinted as CP-82-24, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 1980. Resource requirements for industrial processes: A WELMM
comparison of energy chains, WP-80-50, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 37 pp.
Other Papers and Publications
Grubler, A., R. Williamson, 2013, Interview with Arnulf Grubler, Carbon
Management 4(4):359-363, doi:10.4155/cmt.13.20
Grubler, A., 2000, Technical change and environmental change, in D. Bourg and
S. Erkman (eds), Industrial Ecology and Sustainability Conference
Proceedings, Troyes September 22-25, 1999 CDROM, UTT and ICAST,
Troyes, France.
Plutzar, C., Grubler, A., Stojanovic, V., Riedl, L. and Pospischil, W., 2000, A GIS
based approach for modeling the spatial and temporal development of
night-time lights, in J. Strobl, T. Blaschke, G. Griesebner (eds), Angewandte
Geographische Informationsverarbeitung XII, Beitraege zum AGIT
Symposium Salzburg 2000. H. Wichmann Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany, pp.
389–394. (ISBN 3-87907-349-X).
Grubler, A., Jefferson, M., McDonald, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1998, Global
Energy Perspectives, Support Paper, Special Session 2, 17th World Energy
Congress Houston, TX, USA.
Grubler, A., 1996, Global energy perspectives to 2050, Lettre du Comit´e
National Fran¸cais du Conseil Mondial de l’Energie, 10 June 1996, Paris,
France. [In French].
Nakicenovic, N. and Grubler, A., 1996, Energy and the protection of the
atmosphere, United Nations Department for Policy Coordination and
Sustainable Development (UN DPCSD), New York, NY, USA.
Grubler, A. and McDonald, A., 1995, The drive to cleaner energy, Options, 3: 8–
11.
Grubler, A., 1993, Energy for the 21st century: Towards improved efficiency and
environmental compatibility, in Energy Efficiency 2000 Forum, 9 March
1993, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva,
Switzerland.
Foray, D. and Grubler, A., 1991, Towards a taxonomy of technological change,
mimeo, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria.
Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1991, Energy and the environment in the 21st
century, mimeo, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria.
November 20, 2013 15

Grubler, A. and Nakicenovic, N., 1990, Economic map of Europe: Transport,
communication and energy infrastructures in a wider Europe, mimeo,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Grubler, A., 1988, Dynamics of change in manufacturing, transport, and energy
systems, in D. Hill (ed.), Towards Estimating National Energy Emission
Control Costs, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA, pp. 15–
20.
Fueloep, G., Grubler, A., Lotz, A., Pfleger, A., Voigt, A. and Winkelbauer, S.,
1985, Optimal location of medical emergency infrastructure, in D.
Boekemann (ed.), Logistics of Infrastructures in Rural Areas, Institut fuer
Stadt- und Regionalforschung, Technische Universitaet Wien, pp. 6–35. [In
German].
Grubler, A., 1981, The process encyplopedia: Its basic concepts, terminology
and relation to the WELMM facility data base, in B.C. McInnis (ed.), The
Process Encyclopedia Workshop, March 26–27, 1981, 81/08/25, Structural
Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, pp. 5.1–5.11.
November 20, 2013 16