Facing China's Coal Future - IEA

© OECD/IEA 2012 Facing China’s Coal Future
Prospects and Challenges for Carbon Capture and Storage
China’s Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions
Energy demand and continued reliance on coal
In the past decade, China has experienced accelerated industrial and urban development, with
strong growth of gross domestic product (GDP). This has led to an unprecedented demand for
energy in concentrated population and industrial centres, resulting in a doubling of China’s
primary energy demand from 1 108 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2000 to over
2 271 Mtoe in 2009 (IEA, 2011a). China is the largest energy consumer in the world, ahead of the
United States, which consumed some 2 160 Mtoe in 2009.
China’s economic growth is projected to continue and to drive increasing energy consumption for
several decades (Figure 1). By 2035, China is likely to see a large increase in demand for primary
energy, perhaps up by nearly 70% from the present levels (IEA, 2011a). This demand is likely to
be met by increasing use of fossil fuels along with other sources, such as nuclear and renewable.
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Figure 1 World Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario primary energy demand until 2035
Source: IEA, 2011a.
As a result of this rapid economic development, China faces significant environmental challenges.
In its development planning, the Chinese government is placing greater emphasis on scientific
development and consideration for environment and sustainability as noted in the December
2011, National 12th Five‐Year Plan for Environmental Protection (2011‐2015). China’s five‐year
plans and related industrial and energy policies increasingly focus on developing a low‐carbon
economy and set out relevant targets. In practice, this has led to significant investment across a
range of clean technologies and resource efficiency measures. Related policy development and
planning has demonstrated that future development objectives and technology considerations
will take into account climate change mitigation efforts and other environmental impacts and,
critically, will acknowledge China’s stressed resources.
The challenge is complex, as use of coal has been a cornerstone of China’s unprecedented
economic growth. China’s energy supply has been based on increased use of coal, both domestic
and, to some extent, imported. Over the last decade, more than 80% of the global increase in
coal demand came from China alone. Its share of global coal demand rose from 27% in 2000 to
47% by 2010, with coal use more than doubling to 2 350 Mtoe. Based on preliminary estimates
for 2010, China accounted for nearly half of global coal use (IEA, 2011a).