Facing China's Coal Future - IEA

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Facing China’s Coal Future: Prospects and Challenges for CCS © OECD/IEA 2011 Figure 4 Regional distributions of CO2 emissions and sources from coal combustion 2009 Page | 10 Source: IEA, 2011c. Although China has not committed to any internationally binding CO 2 or GHG emissions reduction targets, its national objective is to cut CO 2 emissions per unit of gross GDP by 40% to 45% from 2005 levels by 2020. China has taken strong action to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity, has enacted progressive policies to promote renewable and nuclear energy, and has replaced the biggest share of its ageing, less efficient coal‐fired power plants. The country continues to make significant progress in reducing its energy intensity. 1 In 2009, China consumed about one‐quarter of the energy per unit of economic output that it did in 1980. China has also become a world leader in renewable energy, and aims to boost its share of renewable energy to 15% of total consumption by 2020. During the 11 th Five‐Year Plan (2006‐10), the Chinese government planned to reduce energy use per unit of GDP (energy intensity) by 20%. Though the target was not fully reached, China’s Premier Wen Jiabao has announced that during that period a reduction of 19.1% was reached, based on successes with several wide scale energy efficiency, enterprise energy saving and conservation programs and the shutting down of China’s most polluting small‐scale coal‐fired power plants. The 12 th Five‐Year Plan (2011‐15), released in March 2011, announced a further planned reduction of 16%. The plan aims to improve sustainability targets and pace for growth, including a new carbon intensity target for reducing emissions growth relative to GDP by 17%.The 17% target is part of the larger goal of reducing emissions by 40% to 45% by 2020 (WRI, 2010). 1 Energy intensity is a measure of total primary energy use per unit of gross domestic product.
© OECD/IEA 2012 Facing China’s Coal Future Prospects and Challenges for Carbon Capture and Storage Potential for CCS globally and in China Global role of CCS Many governments and organisations now recognise the potential contribution of CCS to global climate change mitigation efforts. But, as highlighted in this report, key questions remain. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that CCS could help reduce global GHG stabilisation costs by 30% or more during this century, in a portfolio of technologies including renewable energy, nuclear energy, energy conservation and energy efficiency (IPCC, 2005) (Figure 5). Under the IEA BLUE Map Scenario, which calls for CO 2 emissions from the energy sector to be reduced by 50% from 2005 levels by 2050, it is anticipated that CCS could contribute about 19% of total emissions reduction or 9.1 GtCO 2 in 2050 (IEA, 2010b). CCS may have the potential to achieve significant emissions reductions because, other than efficiency improvements, it is the only near‐commercial technology solution that can address CO 2 emissions from large‐scale fossil‐fuel power plants and other industrial facilities. Page | 11 Figure 5 Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions Source: IEA, 2010b. The contribution of CCS to emissions reduction would increase from 3% of total reduced volume in 2020 to 10% in 2030 and 19% in 2050. In this scenario, CCS would thus become the technology providing the single biggest share of emissions reduction. If China continues on a course to high fossil‐fuel usage, CCS must play an important role in the total emissions mitigation effort. In recognition of the important contribution CCS may make to global CO 2 mitigation and energy security, the Group of Eight (G8) committed in 2008 to launching 20 large‐scale (> 1 MtCO 2 /yr) integrated CCS demonstration projects by 2010, with broad deployment by 2020. In 2009, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF) issued its Technology Action Plan: Carbon Capture, Use and Storage in support of a similar commitment (MEF, 2009). While the 2010 target has been missed, considerable project activity is underway globally. Large‐scale CCS deployment
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