OES Annual Report 2012 - Ocean Energy Systems

121
05 / DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL
OCEAN ENERGY INDUSTRY: PERFORMANCE
IMPROVEMENTS AND COST REDUCTIONS
PHASE 3: AFFORDABLE INVESTMENT COSTS FOR GENERATION PROJECTS
OPEX €m/MW/annum
CAPEX €m/MW
CAPACITY FACTOR
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
ANNUAL OPEX AS % OF CAPEX
2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
OPEX 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.12
CAPEX 2.15 1.87 1.65 1.47
OPEX 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.15
CAPEX 2.69 2.33 2.06 1.84
OPEX 0.06 0.11 0.15 0.16
CAPEX 3.23 2.80 2.47 2.21
OPEX 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.21
CAPEX 3.77 3.27 2.88 2.58
OPEX 0.09 0.15 0.20 0.24
CAPEX 4.31 3.73 3.29 2.95
OPEX 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.27
CAPEX 4.85 4.20 3.71 3.32
to yield a 10% IRR for a 25 year project life where a tariff of €160.00/MWh is payable
used in table 7
current offshore
wind (approx)
TABLE 3: Phase 3 Affordable
capital investment for commercial
projects >50MW to be competitive
with offshore wind.
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL)
In order for a project to demonstrate that it can fall within an acceptable cost envelope, technology developers
must complete a test and validation programme that demonstrates this to the satisfaction of investors. ESB
has developed technology readiness level (TRL) definitions [2], adapted from those developed for aerospace
technology by NASA. The ESB wave energy TRL definitions have gained some broader acceptance as a means
to evaluate the maturity of ocean energy conversion technology and to communicate validation requirements
for future projects. ESB’s TRL levels range from TRL1 to TRL9 with TRL9 being a fully developed ‘commercial’,
certified product with significant in-service experience (similar in maturity to offshore wind converters such
as the ubiquitous Siemens SWT 3.6-120 turbine). Under the ESB definition, the TRL level of a technology
is evaluated based on it meeting certain criteria in both functional readiness and lifecycle readiness.
ÌÌ
Functional readiness describes how it has been verified that a technology performs its specified major
functions including energy production performance and maintaining station.
ÌÌ
Lifecycle readiness describes how well it has been verified that the lifecycle of a project based on the
technology is viable, considering aspects such as manufacturability, deployability, operability, reliability,
maintainability and overall commercial viability.
The TRL levels are summarised in Table 4 below.
TRL FUNCTIONAL READINESS LIFECYCLE READINESS
1 Basic principles observed and reported Potential uses of technology identified
2 Technology concept formulated. Market and purpose of technology identified
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Analytical and experimental
critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept.
Technology component and/or basic technology subsystem
validation in a laboratory environment. (>1:25 Froude)
Technology component and/or basic technology subsystem
validation in a relevant environment. (>1:15 Froude)
Technology system prototype demonstration in a relevant
environment. (>1:4 Froude)
Technology system prototype demonstration in an
operational environment. (>1:2 Froude)
Actual Product (first of type) completed and qualified
through test and demonstration. (1:1 Froude)
Operational performance and reliability demonstrated for
an array of type machines.
Initial capital cost and power production
estimates / targets established
Preliminary Lifecycle design: targets for manufacturable,
deployable, operable and maintainable technology
Supply-chain Mobilisation: Procurement of subsystem design,
installation feasibility studies, cost estimations, etc.
Customer interaction: consider customer requirements
to inform type design. Inform customer of likely project
site constraints.
Ocean Operational Readiness: management
of ocean scale risks, marine operations, etc.
Actual Marine Operations completed and qualified
through test and demonstration.
Fully de-risked business plan
for utility scale deployment of arrays
TABLE 4: TRL summary definition. Full definition in [2]