Climate Change in CEE - CLAVIER Project - ICPDR
Climate Change in CEE - CLAVIER Project - ICPDR
Climate Change in CEE - CLAVIER Project - ICPDR
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CLIMATE CHANGE AT CENTRAL AND<br />
EASTERN EUROPE: THE <strong>CLAVIER</strong> PROJECT<br />
András Horányi (horanyi.a@met.hu)<br />
Conference on Adaptation of Water Management to<br />
Effects of <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>in</strong> the Danube River Bas<strong>in</strong><br />
3rd of December, 2007
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> – CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY:<br />
IMPACT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE –<br />
FACT SHEET<br />
• Specific Targeted Research <strong>Project</strong> under “Global <strong>Change</strong> and<br />
Ecosystems” supported by the European Commission<br />
• <strong>Project</strong> duration: 1st of September, 2006 – 30th of August,<br />
2009<br />
• Participants: 13 <strong>in</strong>stitutes from 6 countries<br />
• Total expected amount of work: 521 mm<br />
• Total expected EU contribution: 2 meuro<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
2
PROJECT PARTNERS<br />
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
Partners outside the target region (lead<strong>in</strong>g partners)<br />
Hungary<br />
Romania<br />
Bulgaria<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
3
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
<strong>CLAVIER</strong>: MAIN OBJECTIVES<br />
• Investigation of ongo<strong>in</strong>g and future climate changes and their<br />
associated uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties <strong>in</strong> Central and Eastern European Countries<br />
(<strong>CEE</strong>C)<br />
• Analyses of possible impact of climate changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>CEE</strong>C on<br />
weather patterns and extremes, air pollution, human health, natural<br />
ecosystems, forestry, agriculture, <strong>in</strong>frastructure and water resources.<br />
• Evaluation of the economic impacts of climate changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>CEE</strong>C<br />
economies concentrat<strong>in</strong>g on four economic sectors (agriculture,<br />
tourism, energy supply and public sector)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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TARGET AND STUDY REGIONS<br />
hydrological/water management<br />
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
agricultural impact<br />
energy impact<br />
tourism impact<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
5
PROJECT ORGANISATION<br />
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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WP0: COORDINATION, PROJECT<br />
MANAGEMENT AND OUTREACH<br />
• Coord<strong>in</strong>ation: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology<br />
• Co-coord<strong>in</strong>ation: Hungarian Meteorological Service<br />
• Homepage of the project: www.clavier-eu.org<br />
eu.org<br />
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
• Newsletters are issued at every half year (second edition to be<br />
published soon, subscription possible through the webpage)<br />
• Establishment of the list of stakeholders (for the target regions)<br />
• Intensive communication with the stakeholders (e.g. stakeholder<br />
workshops)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP1: CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS<br />
AND ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTIES<br />
• Exist<strong>in</strong>g climate change scenarios for the region: results of the<br />
PRUDENCE (f<strong>in</strong>ished) and ENSEMBLES (ongo<strong>in</strong>g) projects (see<br />
the presentation of Susanne Pfeifer <strong>in</strong> the morn<strong>in</strong>g)<br />
• Validation and adjustment of regional climate models (REMO,<br />
LMDZ): : ERA40 simulations (25 km), 1961-2000<br />
(summer dry<strong>in</strong>g<br />
problem)<br />
• <strong>Climate</strong> change simulations: A1B scenario, 1951-2050, 25 km<br />
resolution (ongo<strong>in</strong>g), 10 km resolution (planned)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP1 – PRUDENCE: EXTREME<br />
PRECIPITATION (2071-2100 2100 vs. 1961-1990)<br />
1990)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP1 – <strong>CLAVIER</strong> VALIDATION (1961-2000)<br />
2000):<br />
TEMPERATURE SEASONAL DIFFERENCES<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP1 – <strong>CLAVIER</strong> VALIDATION (1961-2000)<br />
2000):<br />
PRECIPITATION SEASONAL DIFFERENCES<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
11
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP1 – <strong>CLAVIER</strong>: INTEGRATION DOMAINS<br />
FOR CLIMATE SIMULATIONS<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP1: FIRST, PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR<br />
THE FUTURE (1951-2050)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE<br />
MODELS’ OUTPUTS FOR IMPACT<br />
ASSESSMENTS<br />
Model outputs:<br />
Simulated mean<br />
3D meteorological<br />
fields<br />
Special (statistical<br />
and dynamical)<br />
downscal<strong>in</strong>g<br />
(post-process<strong>in</strong>g)<br />
process<strong>in</strong>g)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
Impact studies<br />
(us<strong>in</strong>g objective<br />
methods)<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
F<strong>in</strong>al users:<br />
economy,<br />
society,<br />
health, politics ….<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP3a (IMPACT ON WEATHER<br />
REGIMES) : RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF<br />
MACRO-CIRCULATION CIRCULATION TYPES<br />
Relative frequency (%)<br />
Relatív gyakoriság (%)<br />
cyclonal Ciklonális<br />
Anticiklonális anticyclonal<br />
l<strong>in</strong>ear L<strong>in</strong>e áris trend (Ciklonális (C) ) L<strong>in</strong>e áris (Anticiklonális l<strong>in</strong>ear trend (AC) )<br />
75<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
WP3c (IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIMES):<br />
EVAPORATION FOR LAKE BALATON (DERIVED<br />
FROM WATER BALANCE AND MODELLED)<br />
mm<br />
180<br />
160<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
Water-balance derived (E = 884 mm/yr) and<br />
modeled (E = 874 mm/yr) evaporation of Lake<br />
Balaton (1960-2000)<br />
Water balance<br />
Modeled<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
0<br />
1 2 3 3 December, 4 5 2007 6 7 8 9 10 11 12<br />
Month<br />
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FINAL REMARKS<br />
<strong>CLAVIER</strong> project<br />
• The <strong>CLAVIER</strong> EU project plans not only to explore the<br />
climate change over Central and Eastern Europe, but<br />
also to give a first assessment of its impact (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
economical vulnerability)<br />
• Primary vehicle of the project is thet<br />
close relationships<br />
with the “users”, stakeholders<br />
• Please don’t hesitate to contact us if we can provide<br />
valuable <strong>in</strong>formation for you!<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Conference<br />
3 December, 2007<br />
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