Current State of the Market - icmif
Current State of the Market - icmif
Current State of the Market - icmif
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Where are we in <strong>the</strong> market cycle?<br />
• Where are we in <strong>the</strong> market cycle<br />
– AM Best “Critically, <strong>the</strong> market seems poised for a<br />
turn” January 2012<br />
– Hardening in response to major losses<br />
– … but only spotty increases in loss free territories<br />
• Reinsurers under pressure<br />
– USD 50 bn <strong>of</strong> losses to <strong>the</strong> reinsurance sector in 2<br />
years<br />
– Manageable from a capital perspective<br />
– <strong>Market</strong>’s capital remains strong for 2012<br />
• Not a “proper” hard market<br />
– No dislocation<br />
– Capacity remains available<br />
– Little in <strong>the</strong> way <strong>of</strong> capital impairment<br />
Estimated <strong>Market</strong> Capitalisation<br />
500 bn<br />
450 bn<br />
400 bn<br />
350 bn<br />
• Are we entering an era <strong>of</strong> “Micro-cycles”?<br />
300 bn<br />
– Dependant on line <strong>of</strong> business<br />
– Dependant on geography<br />
– Not necessarily industry-wide<br />
250 bn<br />
2007 2007-<br />
2008<br />
2008-<br />
2009<br />
2009-<br />
2010<br />
2010-<br />
2011<br />
2011<br />
16
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