TheImprovement ofTropical and Subtropical Rangelands

TheImprovement ofTropical and Subtropical Rangelands TheImprovement ofTropical and Subtropical Rangelands

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70 IMPROVEMENT OF TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL RANGELANDS technical specialists who must make judgments about the productivity of resources in new projects. The preliminary experiments do not yield perfect or reproducible results, parlicularly when applied to international projects of an agricultural nature where factors such as weather, variability in inputs, and the performance of the field crew typically are incompletely controlled. Situations in developing countries lead to what might be called ~e experimental gap" between the yields that are obtained on the experimental plots and those likely to be achieved on projects. The technical specialists mUBt attempt to estimate the extent of experimental gap and the extent of adjustment or correction. Farming systems research is attempting to narrow this gap. In general, local data are moet useful for ucertaining the response to different treatments or the change in output resulting from a change in level of the inputs. Farmers or pastoralists may be the best source ofinformation on crop or vegetation and animal performance, requirements for labor, materials, machinery Ule, feed requirements, and so on. Information collected locally by survey procedures can be used to establish benchmarks for current enterprise combinations and production practices, and to obtain crop and livestock labor requirements and machine use levels for operations of different sizes. MARUT PRICE DETERMINATION A number of problems confound the establishment of prices for use in project planning. Obtaining satisfactory price information is usually not a difficult problem in the United States. Merchants, dealers, and farm operators can usually provide satisfactory information on current levels of prices paid and received and wage rates. In developing countries, however, specific price information may be more difficult to obtain, and short-term price fluctuations are likely. To the extent that markets exist and market price information is available, market prices should be used, but a few caveats must be considered. First, if market prices are generated from a location remote from the project area, then it would be necessary to make adjustments to account for differences from the project area because of transportation costs, any 108le8 due to waste, spoilage, shrinkage, or death loss, and for transaction costs at the marketplace. H prices tend to fluctuate in a completely irregular or random

THE EOONOMIO OONTEXT 71 fashion or in a cyclical fashion, an average price or expected value may have to be used through a series of yean. .Prices are one ofthe crucial usumptions in planning, and the importance of good price forecasting cannot be overemphasized. However, it is p_ble to become too fearful and exaggerate the consequences of errors. The effects of different prices can be ascertained quite easily by -sensitivity analysis" after the major budgets have been prepared. This may be desirable, both to test the stability of a particular budgeted lO1ution against variations in prices, and also to ascertain the amount of ~ble 1

70 IMPROVEMENT OF TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL RANGELANDS<br />

technical specialists who must make judgments about the productivity<br />

of resources in new projects. The preliminary experiments do<br />

not yield perfect or reproducible results, parlicularly when applied<br />

to international projects of an agricultural nature where factors such<br />

as weather, variability in inputs, <strong>and</strong> the performance of the field<br />

crew typically are incompletely controlled. Situations in developing<br />

countries lead to what might be called ~e experimental gap"<br />

between the yields that are obtained on the experimental plots <strong>and</strong><br />

those likely to be achieved on projects. The technical specialists mUBt<br />

attempt to estimate the extent of experimental gap <strong>and</strong> the extent<br />

of adjustment or correction. Farming systems research is attempting<br />

to narrow this gap.<br />

In general, local data are moet useful for ucertaining the response<br />

to different treatments or the change in output resulting from<br />

a change in level of the inputs.<br />

Farmers or pastoralists may be the best source ofinformation on<br />

crop or vegetation <strong>and</strong> animal performance, requirements for labor,<br />

materials, machinery Ule, feed requirements, <strong>and</strong> so on. Information<br />

collected locally by survey procedures can be used to establish benchmarks<br />

for current enterprise combinations <strong>and</strong> production practices,<br />

<strong>and</strong> to obtain crop <strong>and</strong> livestock labor requirements <strong>and</strong> machine use<br />

levels for operations of different sizes.<br />

MARUT PRICE DETERMINATION<br />

A number of problems confound the establishment of prices for<br />

use in project planning. Obtaining satisfactory price information<br />

is usually not a difficult problem in the United States. Merchants,<br />

dealers, <strong>and</strong> farm operators can usually provide satisfactory information<br />

on current levels of prices paid <strong>and</strong> received <strong>and</strong> wage rates.<br />

In developing countries, however, specific price information may be<br />

more difficult to obtain, <strong>and</strong> short-term price fluctuations are likely.<br />

To the extent that markets exist <strong>and</strong> market price information<br />

is available, market prices should be used, but a few caveats must<br />

be considered. First, if market prices are generated from a location<br />

remote from the project area, then it would be necessary to make<br />

adjustments to account for differences from the project area because<br />

of transportation costs, any 108le8 due to waste, spoilage, shrinkage,<br />

or death loss, <strong>and</strong> for transaction costs at the marketplace.<br />

H prices tend to fluctuate in a completely irregular or r<strong>and</strong>om

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