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Policy Department D: Budgetary Affairs ____________________________________________________________________________________________ The mentioned 9 reactors are of four different types (see Table 3: Development in cost estimations for the 9 reactors (plus storage facility St. Laurent) in million EUR). Cost comparison is therefore difficult because of different technical installations etc. The last estimates showed for example that the costs for dismantling of Chooz A (PWR type) are equivalent to 68 % of the average costs for the Brennilis HWR. The total dismantling costs for the 9 reactors with ancillary facilities were estimated at EUR 4 billion in 2010 7 . Of these total costs only EUR 1.5 billion were covered by set-aside funds, the remainder was not covered at the end of 2010 (CdC 2012). The parameters and the approach for the costs estimation by EDF To minimize the uncertainties in the costs estimates, the dismantling costs are calculated as estimates drawn up and regularly revised by EDF. The estimates are based on all the technical, financial and contractual data available at the time at which they were made. The operations to be carried out are listed and the costs for each operation are evaluated using parameters relating to the quantities to be processed, unit costs and completion times. Cost brackets for all these parameters are determined and a probability of occurrence is assigned to them. A subsequent sensitivity analysis of these parameter helps to identify the degree of uncertainty. From one revision to the next, information from the site where the dismantling is in progress is extrapolated appropriately. Evaluation using data gathered in the previous and current years for the engineering works, site and waste costs is subsequently carried out. In Table 3 the developments of the cost estimations for the 9 reactors (plus the storage facility St. Laurent) to be decommissioned are listed for demonstration (in CdC 2012 according to EDF data). 7 The total estimated amounts for dismantling of the reactors alone (without Superphénix) represents approx. 43 % of their construction costs (EUR 6.1 billion in 2010, overnight costs + interim interests during construction). See CdC 2012. 62
Nuclear Decommissioning: Management of Costs and Risks ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3: Development in cost estimations for the 9 reactors (plus storage facility St. Laurent) in million EUR FACILITIES REACTOR TYPE DISMANT-LING COMPLETED IN 2003 ESTIMATE FOR 2003 2006 ESTIMATE FOR 2006 FOR 2008 PRICES 2008 ESTIMATE FOR 2010 PRICES Chinon A1 2035 Chinon A2 GCR 2034 649.0 586.5 810.0 820.4 Chinon A3 2031 St. Laurent A1 2036 St. Laurent A2 GCR 2031 733.0 614.8 803.0 813.3 Silos 2025 Bugey 1 GCR 2026 373.0 289.9 412.0 417.3 Brennilis Heavy water 2023 260.0 265.6 373.0 377.8 Chooz A PWR 2019* 224.0 216.5 220.0 222.9 Creys-Malville Super-phénix 2026 952.0 912.4 943.0 955.1 TOTAL 3 191.0 2 885.7 3 561.0 3 606.8 TOTAL NORMALIZED TO 2010 3 598.4 3 074.6 3 606.8 * According to CIDEN in Lelong 2011, the overall dismantling shall be completed between 2020 and 2025 Source: (CdC 2012) The estimate for 2008 amounts to EUR 3 606.8 million (in 2010 prices). Comparison of estimates between single years has to be treated with caution. For instance, the drop between the 2003 and 2006 estimates is due to the absence of charges in relation to the disposal of waste. The increase between 2006 and 2008 on a like-for-like basis for the listed facilities is 17.3 %. The changes in the costs vary considerably with the type of the reactor and are also in different cost categories (e.g. for engineering works, site and waste costs). The variations in the estimates are mainly due to administrative reasons like finding a new site for a disposal facility that delayed the schedules for dismantling by 5 years. This resulted in a revision of the time planning, as the site selection procedure was not appropriately taken into account. In the case of Brennilis, the annulment of the authorizing decree for dismantling by the Council of State due to legal reasons caused cost increases because of postponed works and additional studies for obtaining a new decree. The other reason was of industrial nature, with the identification of significant additional costs for the works to be carried out. 63
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