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Policy Department D: Budgetary Affairs ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 2.3. ECONOMIC BASIS OF DECOMMISSIONING PROJECTS 2.3.1. Reliability of decommissioning cost estimates The costs for decommissioning projects can only be reliably estimated on the following basis: A detailed decommissioning plan that covers all work to be performed, all technologies to be applied, all necessary personnel and external services required ('Detailed decommissioning plan'); Masses, types, activation and contamination characteristics of all materials to be removed ('Material inventory'); The necessary treatment, decontamination, conditioning 6 , packaging of all materials to be stored and later disposed or that are to be immediately disposed ('Waste management plan'). Cost estimates performed on a more generic and less precise basis can only yield raw figures, these can prove to be false when detailed data becomes available. Cost figures that are taken from a smaller or different reactor type, from a reactor with a very different operating history, etc., cannot be reliably converted to another reactor. 2.3.2. Relevant decommissioning cost factors Decommissioning costs not only depend on the above named factors but can easily be higher by up to a factor of 1.5 or 2, e.g. if previous basic decisions are changed, if previously underestimated risks materialize, if the whole plan has to be restructured while decommissioning work is in progress, if the work in a time-critical step requires longer than estimated, if previously untested technologies fail and have to be re-adjusted or refitted, if the whole waste management schemes or the conditioning facilities have to be changed substantially, e.g. due to external factors such as major changes in acceptance criteria of the receiving storage or disposal facilities. These factors limit the reliability of cost estimates in general, so that only facility-specific figures that are compatible with the above requirements and are regularly updated to reflect changes should be used. 6 Conditioning means all the measures that are necessary to bring a waste into a condition that is fully compatible with the waste acceptance criteria of the receiving storage or disposal facility. 44
Nuclear Decommissioning: Management of Costs and Risks ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 2.3.3. Rough estimate of decommissioning costs for lightwater reactors In order to gain a general estimate, the reserves for decommissioning costs of two large operators in Germany can be used. These figures are estimated on the basis of reactor-specific decommissioning plans, inventory data and current waste management. The estimates are updated regularly to be compatible with the state-of-the-art in decommissioning. Table 1 lists the reserves that are set aside by RWE AG and E.ON AG for the decommissioning of their 14 reactors with a gross electric power of 16,400 MW in the years 2009 to 2012. The figures include no management and disposal costs for spent fuel. From this the specific figures in million EUR per unit and in million EUR per GW(el) are calculated. Note that all reactors to be decommissioned are of the PWR and BWR type. Table 1: Reserves to cover decommissioning costs of two large German plant owners and derivation of specific economic characteristics RESERVES FOR DECOMMISSIONING SPECIFIC RESERVES FINANCIAL YEAR MILLION EUR PER UNIT PER GWEL RWE E.ON BOTH MEUR/UNIT MEUR/GW 2012 6 865 4 945 11 810 844 719 2011 6 483 4 964 11 447 818 697 2010 6 055 4 490 10 545 753 642 2009 6 444 4 626 11 070 791 674 AVERAGE 6 462 4 756 11 218 801 683 Source: Authors, data derived from various annual company reports Under the German framework conditions (labor expenses, etc.) the total costs for decommissioning are in the range of EUR 800 million per reactor unit or roughly EUR 680 million per GW(el). As also can be seen there is no specific major trend in the million EUR/Unit and million EUR/GW(el) figures even though the cost analysis is updated on a yearly basis. Note that converting these figures to other types and sizes of reactors yields largely unreliable numbers. 2.4. THE ORGANISATION OF DECOMMISSIONING PROJECTS The organisation of decommissioning projects has been recognized as a central factor, e.g.: 'The reported experience demonstrates that careful planning and management is essential in ensuring that decommissioning of nuclear facilities is accomplished in a safe and cost effective 45
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