2000 HSS/PSA Program 1 - History of Science Society

PSA Abstracts
Bryon Cunningham Emory University
The Reemergence of ‘Emergence’
A variety of recent philosophical discussions, particularly on topics relating
to complexity, have begun to reemploy the concept of ‘emergence.’ Although
multiple concepts of ‘emergence’ are available, little effort has been made to
systematically distinguish them. In this paper, I provide a taxonomy of higherorder
properties that (inter alia) distinguishes three classes of emergence: (1)
ontologically basic properties of complex entities, such as the mythical vital
properties, (2) fully configurational properties, such as mental properties as
they are conceived by functionalists, and (3) highly configurational/holistic
properties, such as the higher- level patterns characteristic of complex
dynamical systems.
Erik Curiel Stanford University
Against the Excesses of Quantum Gravity: A Plea for Modesty
I argue that all current research programs in quantum gravity conform to the
17th century hypothetico-deductive model of scientific inquiry, perhaps of
necessity given the state of technology. In so far as they do not recognize and
advertise the shortcomings of the research method they use, they do a disservice
to the integrity of science, for the method admits of far less certainty accruing
to its products than one would be led to believe by the pronouncements of
researchers in the area.
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Robyn␣ M. Dawes Carnegie Mellon University
The Ethics of Using or Not Using Statistical Prediction Rules in
Psychological Practice and Related Consulting Activities
Scientific theory and understanding cannot be reduced to a set of prediction
equations, but ability to predict even what will be found about past events (as in
an autopsy or archeological dig) constitutes the criterion for meeting the “show
me” demand of all scientific assertions. Moreover, applied work also demands
predictive capacity. A practitioner can influence change in a desirable direction
only when able to predict what is likely to occur as the result of various possible
interventions, or none at all. While some physical processes follow deterministic
principles (at certain levels of analysis anyway), and while some analysts accept
as a matter of faith that processes in psychology and other social sciences would
“ultimately” be deterministic “if only we know enough,” most such processes
are for all practical purposes probabilistic. Moreover, medicine is as well at