Forests Sourcebook - HCV Resource Network

Selecting the appropriate analytical tools. Appropriate
analytical tools should be selected based on the objective,
data availability, cost, and time constraints. Different
analytical tools have different expertise requirements, and
costs will depend on many factors and vary considerably.
Table 6.2 provides some guidance on the requirements, significance,
and costs of select analytical tools. As a general
rule, the costs of national resource accounts, econometric
modeling, and indicator frameworks will be relatively high,
whereas impact and case studies or expert panels will be in
the medium or lower range. In comparing the different
strengths and weaknesses of alternative designs, the team
should try to combine some of their relative advantages and
informative value. Research could start with case studies
and lead to quantitative impact analysis or to econometric
modeling at a later stage. Qualitative studies can provide
recommendations for quantitative monitoring over longer
periods of critical effects that result from particularly relevant
policy linkages.
Some standard tools include analysis of price changes,
heuristic tools, such as checklists and action-effect matrices,
and red flags (presented in annexes 6.3A and 6.3B to this
note) that can be applied to better understand the nature
and direction of environmental impacts. Most of these tools
can be applied to analysis of potential risks, including a set
of red flags that indicate potential problems. However, in a
number of cases, policy reforms may also represent opportunities
for better management of the forest resources.
Data requirements. Relevant data is generally unavailable.
Conventional economic statistics and social data collected
by governments and other interest groups frequently either
underestimate, or completely ignore, natural resource
issues. Adequate resource allocation to data collection will
be important. This will require gathering baseline data on the
current state of natural resources, identifying trends in
resource use and degradation, and obtaining data on the proposed
reforms and on the actual effects from similar reforms.
Table 6.2
The Requirements, Significance, and Costs of Select Analytical Tools
Requirements Significance Costs
National resource • Main linkages must be known. • Stronger for intrasectoral linkages, less High
accounts • Main linkages are with institutionalized differentiated for cross-sectoral linkages.
and documented sectors. • Impact of variables can be estimated.
• Main linkages are quantifiable flows of
resources, that is, high data quality needed.
• Expertise in systems of national accounts.
Econometric modeling • Main linkages must be known. • Complex linkages can be studied. High
• Main linkages are with institutionalized. • Impact of variables can be estimated.
and documented sectors.
• Main linkages are quantifiable flows of
resources, that is, high data quality needed.
• Econometric expertise.
Indicator framework • Main linkages must be known. • Strong for monitoring a few linkages High
• Main linkages are quantifiable in single over time.
indicators, that is, medium data quality. • Estimation of the impact of single
• Expertise in measurement and statistics. variables less precise than using an
impact study.
Impact study • Main linkages must be known. • Strong for illustrating linkages. Medium
• Both quantitative or qualitative approaches • Estimation of the impact of single
are feasible, thus, flexible on data quality. variables less precise than use of
• Expertise in quantitative data analysis and an indicator framework.
policy evaluation.
Case study • Main linkages do not have to be known. • Strong for illustrating complex and Medium
• Linkages can but do not have to be indirect cause-and-effect relationships.
quantifiable, thus, flexible on data quality. • Estimation of the impact of single
• Expertise in qualitative social research. variables only rough.
• Field experience recommended.
Expert panel • Only experts as source of information • Less subjectivity through communicative Low
needed.
validation.
• Expertise for selecting experts and staff • Estimation of the impact of single
for administration of panel needed.
variables only rough.
Source: Schmithüsen, Bisang, and Zimmermann 2001.
NOTE 6.3: IDENTIFYING THE NEED FOR ANALYSIS ON FORESTS IN DEVELOPMENT POLICY REFORMS 233