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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<br />
xv<br />
India<br />
A full SAFTA will help India nearly doubled its exports<br />
to South Asia. India’s export gains from SAFTA are<br />
limited to a few agricultural sectors and the auto sector<br />
where it is seen to have a relative comparative advantage<br />
vis-à-vis the rest of South Asia.<br />
Table 4 Export Gain for India in SAFTA Market<br />
(per cent)<br />
Output Effect on Exports Global Global<br />
Unskilled to Exports Imports<br />
Employ- South<br />
ment Asia<br />
2008-09 0 –0.00001 3.41 0.09 0.11<br />
2016 0.08 0.00002 90.44 1.19 1.68<br />
There are two agricultural sectors where India does<br />
gain significantly from SAFTA – poultry and sugar. In<br />
fact its highest output gain is in the poultry sector, where<br />
output in ‘other meat products’ shows an increase of<br />
over 100%, indicative of the high level of demand of<br />
poultry and also its protection in the region.<br />
Pakistan<br />
Like India, a full SAFTA for Pakistan will help double<br />
its exports to South Asia. Pakistan sees positive results<br />
for important employment-intensive agricultural sectors<br />
like wheat, horticulture, meat products (mainly poultry)<br />
and other food products. The textiles sector, which is<br />
very important to the economy, has seen an output<br />
expansion of about 0.5%.<br />
Table 5 Export Gain for Pakistan in SAFTA Market<br />
(per cent)<br />
Output Effect on Exports Global Global<br />
Unskilled to Exports Imports<br />
Employ- South<br />
ment Asia<br />
2008-09 0.01 0 5.52 0.17 0.19<br />
2016 0.02 –0.0001 102.41 0.77 1.54<br />
Sri Lanka<br />
Sri Lanka’s gains in the first phase of liberalisation is<br />
almost nil. This is largely because Sri Lanka already<br />
has nearly free access to the Indian market, and also<br />
because LDCs and developed countries have not<br />
committed to substantial liberalisation vis-à-vis Sri<br />
Lanka in the first phase.<br />
Sri Lanka’s gains improve in the second phase, when<br />
all countries participate fully (and remove their negative<br />
Table 6 Export Gain for Sri Lanka in SAFTA<br />
Market (per cent)<br />
Output Effect on Exports Global Global<br />
Unskilled to Exports Imports<br />
Employ- South<br />
ment Asia<br />
2008-09 0.1 0 2.52 0.05 0.14<br />
2016 0.55 –0.000107 58.78 0.72 1.98<br />
lists). The increase in output in vegetable oils<br />
corroborates empirical evidence of duty structures that<br />
favour manufacture of edible oils. The textiles sector<br />
which contributes to about 5% of the total output in<br />
Sri Lanka has seen a growth of about 4%.<br />
Results from Trade Potential due to SAFTA<br />
To validate the results of the above section, another<br />
methodology has been adopted to arrive at the trade<br />
potential due to SAFTA. A gravity model is estimated<br />
using bilateral trade flows between SAFTA members<br />
and factors that may explain trade with respect to<br />
gravity. Inter-regional tariffs have been included in the<br />
model. The results of the model show that the estimated<br />
trade is much higher than the actual trade indicating a<br />
huge potential for intra-regional trade.<br />
The estimates show that the potential trade between<br />
the SAFTA member countries as predicted by the gravity<br />
model is 120% more than the actual trade. A number<br />
of studies have estimated potential trade as the<br />
difference between trade predicted by the gravity model<br />
and actual trade. The entire difference between<br />
predicted and actual trade has been attributed to tariffs<br />
and it has been argued that removal of tariffs will<br />
increase trade to the predicted level. However, the entire<br />
difference between the predicted trade and actual trade<br />
may not be due to tariffs. The results show that even if<br />
tariffs are not removed a gap between potential and<br />
actual intra-regional trade exists. Increase in trade<br />
which can be directly attributed to removal of tariffs<br />
under SAFTA is 80% of the actual intra-regional trade<br />
from the predicted intra-regional trade of 120%. This<br />
implies that apart from tariffs there exist other barriers<br />
to trade. Intra-regional trade may rise by a further 40%<br />
if other factors affecting trade are addressed, such as<br />
non-tariff barriers and political constraints.<br />
Revenue Loss due to SAFTA<br />
In addition to the benefits of SAFTA in terms of gains<br />
in trade, output, employment and prices, it has been<br />
argued that custom duties form an important share in