Presentation by Dr. Niklas Höhne - Ecofys
Presentation by Dr. Niklas Höhne - Ecofys Presentation by Dr. Niklas Höhne - Ecofys
Europe and China: who is faster in implementing climate change policies? The Green race to Durban and Beyond, European Parliament, Brussels 9 November 2011 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
- Page 2 and 3: Content Europe’s and China’s cl
- Page 4 and 5: What is the overall ambition level?
- Page 6 and 7: China International pledge almost i
- Page 8 and 9: Conclusions • EU’s and China’
Europe and China: who is faster in<br />
implementing climate change<br />
policies?<br />
The Green race to Durban and Beyond, European<br />
Parliament, Brussels<br />
9 November 2011<br />
<strong>Dr</strong>. <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
Content<br />
Europe’s and China’s climate policies<br />
• What is the starting point?<br />
• What is the overall national ambition level?<br />
• What is the sectoral ambition level?<br />
© ECOFYS | <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>| 9 November 2011
What is the starting point ?<br />
(2008) EU China<br />
Total GHG emissions 5 GtCO 2 e 9 GtCO 2 e<br />
GHG trend 1990 to 2008 -12 % + 150 %<br />
GHG emissions per<br />
capita<br />
10 tCO 2 e/cap 6.6 tCO 2 e/cap<br />
Historical GHG emissions 7.1 tCO 2 e/cap/y 1.3 tCO 2 e/cap/y<br />
GDP ppp / cap 28 kUS$/cap 5 kUS$/cap<br />
Source:<br />
Factors underpinning future action, country factsheets, 2011 update, available at<br />
www.ecofys.com<br />
© ECOFYS | <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>| 9 November 2011
What is the overall ambition level?<br />
Global<br />
• Emissions gap of 7 to 10 GtCO 2 e in 2020<br />
• Current pledges lead to 3.2°C (2.6 to 4) in<br />
2100<br />
Source<br />
• www.climateactiontracker.org:<br />
Independent science-based assessment of<br />
individual national pledges to reduce<br />
greenhouse gas emissions<br />
On the emissions gap see also the UNEP Emissions Gap Report,<br />
www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport, and its update “Bridging<br />
the gap” to be released 23 November 2011<br />
© ECOFYS | <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>| 9 November 2011
EU<br />
20% target outside of range of what would be needed for 2°C<br />
30% target just within range<br />
© ECOFYS | <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>| 9 November 2011
China<br />
International pledge almost inside of range of what<br />
would be needed for 2°C<br />
© ECOFYS | <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>| 9 November 2011
What is the sectoral ambition level?<br />
EU<br />
China<br />
Renewables target 20% <strong>by</strong> 2020 15% (non-fossil) <strong>by</strong> 2020<br />
Renewable<br />
technologies<br />
Industrial energy<br />
efficiency<br />
Energy<br />
performance in<br />
buildings<br />
Energy/emission<br />
standards in<br />
transport<br />
Leading in wind<br />
ETS, but weak cap<br />
Nearly zero energy standard<br />
<strong>by</strong> 2020, but no incentives<br />
for retrofit<br />
Emission standard, but no<br />
action on modal shift or<br />
freight transport<br />
Leading in solar water heaters,<br />
photovoltaics<br />
• National and regional energy<br />
targets<br />
• 10 000 enterprise programme<br />
• Closure of inefficient plants<br />
• Pilot ETS’s<br />
Standards, but questions about<br />
implementation<br />
• Energy standard (between USA and<br />
EU)<br />
• Ambitious push for electric vehicles<br />
Source: EU’s climate policy tracker, www.climatepolicytracker.eu, to be updated end of November 2011<br />
© ECOFYS | <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>| 9 November 2011
Conclusions<br />
• EU’s and China’s climate policies:<br />
• Ambitious against their national context<br />
• Not ambitious enough for the 2°C limit<br />
• EU<br />
• Renewable policy: world leader<br />
• Energy efficiency: room for improvement<br />
• China<br />
• Fast changing policy environment<br />
• Market leader in several renewable technologies<br />
• Fast economic growth more than offsets emission<br />
reductions<br />
© ECOFYS | <strong>Niklas</strong> <strong>Höhne</strong>| 9 November 2011
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Am Wassermann 36<br />
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Germany<br />
T: +49 (0)221 27070-100<br />
E: info@ecofys.com<br />
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© ECOFYS | Name | 15.11.2011 | 9
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