PART FOUR: THE <strong>SOLAR</strong> FUTURE Government Policy and Programmes A national regime for grid connected renewable systems, including net metering and low interest credit for home solar systems, is badly needed. This could be financed by switching current subsidies for nuclear power to solar systems. A national law needs to be passed in the National Congress to establish a target for 8% of national electricity to come from renewables by 2013 - a target already included in the government’s International Action Plan presented at Renewables 2004 in Bonn. Clean energy projects such as solar PV should also be made a priority for CDM investment under the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. China CASE STUDY: <strong>SOLAR</strong> <strong>GENERATION</strong> IN CHINA As a major fossil fuel generator, China has made a serious commitment towards exploiting its renewable energy resources. 80% of the Chinese population lives in rural areas, and 30 million people have no access to electricity. In 1998 the government announced the linking of three state agencies involved in renewable energy - the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State Development and Planning Commission and the State Economic and Trade Commission - to work together on a programme for New and Renewable Energy Development in China up to 2010. Included in their targets is for the equivalent output from 4.67 million tons of coal to be produced by solar energy. The same three organisations have also launched a PV programme know as the “Sunlight Program”. Operating until 2010 this is expected to: • Upgrade the country’s manufacturing capacity • Establish large scale and PV-hybrid village power demonstration systems • Promote home PV projects for remote areas • Integrate grid-connected PV projects Besides these initiatives, a Global Environment Facility-World Bank renewables development programme is scheduled to support the installation of 200,000 solar home systems with a total capacity of 10 MW. China had already installed a generation capacity of about 42.5 MWp by the end of 2002, distributed as follows: Table 4.15: PV in China by application Rural electrification Telecommunications Consumer Goods Grid-connected systems Installed capacity by end of 2002 31.0 MWpeak 5.0 MWpeak 6.0 MWpeak 0.5 MWpeak Newly installed capacity in China during 2004 is expected to reach approximately 35 MWp. Within the programme “Song Dian Dao Xiang” (sending electricity to villages) alone, it is planned to install 100 - 150 MWp over the period 2005 to 2010. This programme is completely initiated and funded by the Chinese government. In parallel to this, the Chinese PV industry is also growing. At the 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition in June 2004, 32 companies and organisations from China were represented. Three years before, only two companies were present. In the <strong>Greenpeace</strong>/EPIA scenario China is expected to produce a growth rate of about 30% over the next decade. This will rise to 45% between 2010 and 2020. In 2020 the Chinese solar PV market could be the third largest in the world, creating nearly 230,000 jobs in installation alone. The total energy output in 2020 would be 31.3 TWh, the equivalent of 31 coal-fired power plants. This market development needs a strong and long-term support programme. Government Policy and Programmes As well as providing incentives to developers and manufacturers of solar PV systems, the Chinese government should introduce legislation which both encourages renewable energy sources and removes all institutional, market and policy barriers to the operation of PV projects. The Sunlight programme should be expanded in order to play a more important role. China should also look towards more pro-active involvement from foreign investors. Table 4.16: Solar market in China to 2020 Year MW MWh tCOc Market Volume in US$m Jobs 2003 25 152,750 91,650 98 770 2005 44 255,125 153,075 150 1,348 2010 181 948,115 568,869 456 5,560 2020 7,444 31,370,752 18,822,451 10,147 228,450 Total 2000 t0 2020 23,900 103,731,754 62,239,053 44
PART FIVE WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE <strong>SOLAR</strong> <strong>GENERATION</strong>
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