SOLAR GENERATION - Greenpeace

PART FOUR: THE SOLAR FUTURE
Government Policy and Programmes
A national regime for grid connected renewable systems,
including net metering and low interest credit for home solar
systems, is badly needed. This could be financed by switching
current subsidies for nuclear power to solar systems. A national
law needs to be passed in the National Congress to establish a
target for 8% of national electricity to come from renewables by
2013 - a target already included in the government’s
International Action Plan presented at Renewables 2004 in
Bonn. Clean energy projects such as solar PV should also be
made a priority for CDM investment under the Kyoto Protocol
mechanisms.
China
CASE STUDY: SOLAR GENERATION IN CHINA
As a major fossil fuel generator, China has made a serious
commitment towards exploiting its renewable energy
resources. 80% of the Chinese population lives in rural areas,
and 30 million people have no access to electricity. In 1998 the
government announced the linking of three state agencies
involved in renewable energy - the Ministry of Science and
Technology, the State Development and Planning Commission
and the State Economic and Trade Commission - to work
together on a programme for New and Renewable Energy
Development in China up to 2010. Included in their targets is for
the equivalent output from 4.67 million tons of coal to be
produced by solar energy.
The same three organisations have also launched a PV
programme know as the “Sunlight Program”. Operating until
2010 this is expected to:
• Upgrade the country’s manufacturing capacity
• Establish large scale and PV-hybrid village power demonstration
systems
• Promote home PV projects for remote areas
• Integrate grid-connected PV projects
Besides these initiatives, a Global Environment Facility-World
Bank renewables development programme is scheduled to
support the installation of 200,000 solar home systems with a
total capacity of 10 MW. China had already installed a
generation capacity of about 42.5 MWp by the end of 2002,
distributed as follows:
Table 4.15: PV in China by application
Rural electrification
Telecommunications
Consumer Goods
Grid-connected systems
Installed capacity
by end of 2002
31.0 MWpeak
5.0 MWpeak
6.0 MWpeak
0.5 MWpeak
Newly installed capacity in China during 2004 is expected to
reach approximately 35 MWp. Within the programme “Song
Dian Dao Xiang” (sending electricity to villages) alone, it is
planned to install 100 - 150 MWp over the period 2005 to 2010.
This programme is completely initiated and funded by the
Chinese government.
In parallel to this, the Chinese PV industry is also growing. At
the 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and
Exhibition in June 2004, 32 companies and organisations from
China were represented. Three years before, only two
companies were present.
In the Greenpeace/EPIA scenario China is expected to produce a
growth rate of about 30% over the next decade. This will rise to
45% between 2010 and 2020.
In 2020 the Chinese solar PV market could be the third largest
in the world, creating nearly 230,000 jobs in installation alone.
The total energy output in 2020 would be 31.3 TWh, the
equivalent of 31 coal-fired power plants. This market development
needs a strong and long-term support programme.
Government Policy and Programmes
As well as providing incentives to developers and manufacturers
of solar PV systems, the Chinese government should introduce
legislation which both encourages renewable energy sources
and removes all institutional, market and policy barriers to the
operation of PV projects. The Sunlight programme should be
expanded in order to play a more important role. China should
also look towards more pro-active involvement from foreign
investors.
Table 4.16: Solar market in China to 2020
Year MW MWh tCOc
Market Volume
in US$m
Jobs
2003 25 152,750 91,650 98 770
2005 44 255,125 153,075 150 1,348
2010 181 948,115 568,869 456 5,560
2020 7,444 31,370,752 18,822,451 10,147 228,450
Total 2000 t0 2020 23,900 103,731,754 62,239,053
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