SOLAR GENERATION - Greenpeace

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PART FOUR: THE SOLAR FUTURE Government Policy and Programmes In order for the ambitious target of 4.82 GWp by 2010 to be realised, appropriate policies must be put in place. Rapid expansion of PV installations in Japan has been made possible by a set of efforts by the government, PV manufacturers and utilities, including net metering schemes. Home applications have been playing an important role in the PV market in Japan, representing 90% of installations last year. The subsidy for home applications, however, has been decreasing and is scheduled to end in fiscal year 2005. If the promising home application market is to continue to flourish, either the current support scheme should be continued or a replacement devised. All retailers currently pay the same tariff for imported and exported electricity, except for Australian Inland Energy, which pays 1 cent more for export. Some retailers may only pay the wholesale rate for net export. Many of the retailers and Distributed Network Service Providers (DNSPs) are currently reviewing their grid-connect arrangements. One significant issue is that consumers currently pay a monthly figure of about $ 20 to support the programme, and further efforts must be made to reduce the cost of PV systems. Reaching a level of $ 5,000 per kWp would make the price acceptable to PV installers and could lead to a rapid expansion in home applications. CASE STUDY : SOLAR GENERATION IN JAPAN Japan is currently the world leader in PV applications and the EPIA/Greenpeace scenario expects this position to be maintained for a further 15 years. The success of Japan has been largely attributable to a focus on support for home applications, accounting for over 70% of the total installed capacity. If strengthened policies are put in place, the annual growth rate between 2005 and 2010 is expected to be 30%. Table 4.9 summarises the findings of the scenario for Japan, showing future prospects for installed capacity, electricity generated, avoided COc emissions, the total value of the PV market and job creation. Installed capacity is projected to reach well over 5 GWp by 2010, with electricity output of about 5 TWh. By 2020 it will have exceeded 30 TWh, covering 2.5% of Japan’s electricity demand and with an installed capacity of over 30 GWp. Over the next 15 years the number of jobs created by the PV industry in installation and maintenance services would be more than 126,000. The Renewable Portfolio Standard enacted by the government in 2003 should be expanded from its current target of 1.35% by 2010 in order to provide an incentive for increased use of solar energy. It should also differentiate between (more expensive) solar generation and other renewable sources such as biomass and wind. Overall, energy policy in Japan continues to focus on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. More attention needs to be given to the use of renewable energies, including solar, and clearer commitments made by the government for further expansion. Table 4.9: Solar market in Japan to 2020 Year MW MWh tCOc Market Volume in US$m Jobs 2003 223 529,400 317,640 757 6,868 2005 321 1,117,592 670,555 956 9,892 2010 1,260 4,958,027 2,974,816 2,748 38,715 2020 4,085 32,568,550 19,541,130 4,826 126,263 Total 2000 t0 2020 31,309 197,975,063 118,785,038 40
OECD North America Growth rates envisaged in this scenario for the North American PV market are the most moderate in the industrialised world. This is a result of the energy policy adopted by the US government, which is not presently fostering the development of PV in a serious way. Even though solar irradiation and the operating conditions in the large North American land mass are extremely favourable to PV, growth rates are expected to be moderate. Canada does not play a significant role as yet, with a total installed capacity of 7 MWp and a growth in 2000 of just 1.3 MWp. The importance of the US market for the global PV industry will therefore decrease if there is no shift in policy within the next few years. While the annual solar power markets in OECD Europe and OECD Pacific are expected to grow by 30% per year and exceed 8 GWp by 2020, the market in OECD North America will by then only be around 0.8 GWp. On the other hand, a change in the US approach, particularly over climate change, could dramatically improve future prospects. CASE STUDY: SOLAR GENERATION IN THE UNITED STATES Because of the key position of the US in the future solar PV market, two different scenarios have been calculated. The first assumes “business as usual”, with an annual growth rate of 20% up to 2020. The second “take-off” scenario is based on the assumption that the US market will make a determined attempt to catch up with its European competitors. The first table below shows the expected outcome if the United States continues with its present lukewarm approach to PV support. As a result of serious budget cuts and repeated delays in PV support programmes, the annual growth rate is expected to remain at 20% throughout the scenario. If the US government doesn’t invest in PV, then the country’s market will be five times smaller in 2005 than the EU’s. By 2010 the US solar market would be even smaller than Germany’s. By 2020 the US would have a world market share of just 2%. If the US government decided to establish a nationwide support scheme similar to those operating in Germany or Japan, then a different market development would be possible (see Table 4.11). This “take-off” scenario assumes that the US domestic market will develop along the lines of Europe, with an ambitious target for 3,500 MWp of cumulative capacity by 2010. To achieve this strong market growth is required, with the assumption that after 2010 the annual growth rate would be the same as in Europe. This dramatic development would have a serious impact on the world PV market. It would mean that half of the estimated world market volume would be installed in the USA, and the industry would create more than 220,000 jobs. Government Policy and Programmes The conclusion of the scenario for US federal and state energy planners is that if the government decided to support the industry with a national programme, such as a reducing fixed rate tariff, then the market growth could be equal to that of Europe. The US PV industry would then be among the world leaders. Table 4.10: Solar market in the US to 2020 (business as usual) Year MW MWh tCOc Market Volume in US$m Jobs 2000 22 41,940 72 86 660 2005 55 658,810 365,535 164 1,688 2010 136 1,724,086 893,494 299 4,200 2015 339 4,414,975 2,207,225 551 10,451 2020 843 11,110,766 5,476,208 1,017 26,006 Table 4.11: Solar market in the US to 2020 (take-off scenario) Year MW MWh tCOc Market Volume in US$m Jobs 2003 63 514,440 115,560 214 1,934 2005 91 799,042 295,186 270 2,797 2010 521 3,615,470 1,938,102 1,137 16,041 2020 7,187 57,093,702 33,133,738 8,491 221,141 Total 2000 t0 2020 30,209 239,422,451 136,257,233 41
Page 1 and 2: GREENPEACE · EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC
Page 3 and 4: FOREWORD The European Commission’
Page 5 and 6: solar power is capable of supplying
Page 7 and 8: • PV market development over rece
Page 9 and 10: PART ONE SOLAR BASICS
Page 11 and 12: PV Cells and Modules PV cells are g
Page 13 and 14: Climate Change and Fuel Choices Car
Page 15 and 16: PART TWO THE SOLAR POWER MARKET
Page 17 and 18: The other side of the grid-connecte
Page 19 and 20: Table 2.1: PV cell manufacture - le
Page 21 and 22: PART THREE THE SOLAR RACE
Page 23 and 24: estimated 45,000 jobs created in le
Page 25 and 26: industry’s goal is to sustain a 3
Page 27 and 28: Figure 3.3: Installed PV in Japan b
Page 29 and 30: PART FOUR THE SOLAR FUTURE
Page 31 and 32: Table 4.2: Projected growth of worl
Page 33 and 34: Table 4.4: Fall in Price of PV elec
Page 35 and 36: Figure 4.7: World solar power marke
Page 37 and 38: OECD Pacific PV market. The tariff
Page 39: the Australian PV industry. This fi
Page 43 and 44: is based on a target for 120 MW ins
Page 45 and 46: PART FIVE WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE
Page 47 and 48: achieve a sustainable market in sol

SOLAR GENERATION - Greenpeace

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