SOLAR GENERATION - Greenpeace

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PART FOUR: THE <strong>SOLAR</strong> FUTURE Figure 4.1: Growth in world solar market by application 25 [MW peak] 20 15 Grid connected Remote Industrial Off-grid rural (mainly DC) Consumer Appl. Table 4.3: Employment in PV related jobs world wide Year Jobs in Production Jobs in installation, retailing Jobs in maintenance Total 2003 8,144 17,451 2,354 27,949 2004 9,027 22,568 3,106 34,701 2005 9,733 29,199 4,079 43,011 2006 12,589 37,768 5,338 55,695 10 5 2007 14,657 48,856 6,967 70,480 2008 18,961 63,203 9,073 91,237 2009 24,531 81,769 11,799 118,099 2010 27,950 104,813 16,822 149,585 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2011 35,907 134,651 23,738 194,296 2012 46,240 173,401 33,230 252,871 By 2040, the penetration of solar generation would be even deeper. Assuming that overall global power consumption had by then increased from 25,578 to 36,000 TWh, the solar contribution would equal 21% of the world’s electricity output. This would place solar power firmly on the map as an established energy source. 2. Employment More jobs are created in the installation and servicing of PV systems than in their manufacture. Based on information provided by the industry, it has been assumed that today’s 17 jobs per MW in production will be reduced to 15 in 2010, decreasing to 10 jobs per MW between 2010 and 2020. About 30 jobs per MW will be created during the process of installation, retailing and providing other local services up to 2010, reducing to 26 jobs per MW between 2010 and 2020. As far as maintenance is concerned it is assumed that with the more efficient business structures and larger systems of the industrialised world, about one job will be created per installed MW. Since developing world markets will play a more significant role beyond 2010, however, the proportion of maintenance work is assumed to steadily increase up to 2 jobs per MW by 2020. The result is that by 2020, an estimated 2.25 million full time jobs would have been created by the development of solar power around the world. Over half of those would be in the installation and marketing of systems 2013 59,701 223,880 46,234 329,815 2014 77,294 289,852 64,029 431,175 2015 100,364 376,366 88,370 565,100 2016 130,727 490,226 121,673 742,625 2017 170,834 640,629 167,268 978,731 2018 224,017 840,065 229,764 1,293,846 2019 294,815 1,105,555 315,561 1,715,931 2020 389,438 1,460,391 412,920 2,262,749 3. Costs and Investment The falling cost of PV cells and modules has been a crucial factor in the recent development of the technology. An indication of the potential for increased efficiency in the production of cells has been given in Part Two, together with the likely shift in favour of cheaper thin film technologies. In this scenario it is projected that the price per Wp for additional production sites will drop from today’s $ 1.69 to $ 1.12 by 2010. Between 2010 and 2020 a further price decrease is anticipated. On the basis that the current progress ratio is maintained, an ex-works price of ¤ 2/Wp for crystalline modules will be achieved by 2010. In terms of delivered electricity, it is possible to make predictions for the output from grid-connected systems. The results are given for an average consumer in some of the major cities of the world (see Table 4.4). These show that by 2020 the cost of solar electricity in the most insolated regions - the Middle East, Asia, South America and Australasia - will have more than halved to as little as 10-13 S cents/kWh in the best conditions. This would make PV power competitive with typical electricity prices paid by end consumer households. Of equal importance in relation to falling costs is the level of investment in manufacturing capacity. Here the scenario 32
Table 4.4: Fall in Price of PV electricity in selected cities 2000-2020 Region kWh/ ( year* kWp ) 2005 ¤/ kWh 2010 ¤/ kWh 2015 ¤/ kWh 2020 ¤/ kWh Berlin 900 0.40 0.30 0.26 0.19 Paris 1000 0.36 0.27 0.24 0.18 Washington 1200 0.30 0.23 0.20 0.15 Hongkong 1300 0.28 0.21 0.18 0.13 Sydney 1400 0.26 0.19 0.17 0.13 Mumbai 1400 0.26 0.19 0.17 0.13 Bangkok 1600 0.23 0.17 0.15 0.11 Dubai 1800 0.20 0.15 0.13 0.10 Figure 4.3: Global Investment in new PV prduction facilities 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Module Shipment worldwide [MW] Additional production capacity needed [MW] Investment production facilities [¤m] Source: PV 2010 Investment Market Volume [¤m] Total investment [¤m] 2005 2010 2015 2020 shows that the global value of the solar power market will have reached more than $ 70 billion by the end of the scenario period. Investment in new production facilities will reach $ 13.2 billion by 2020. The overall market volume for PV systems will increase to $ 62 billion. Just over $ 9.6 billion of that value will be located in Europe, $ 8.7 billion in the Pacific region and $ 5.6 billion in Africa. 4. Carbon Dioxide Reductions A reduction in the levels of carbon dioxide being emitted into the world’s atmosphere is the most important environmental benefit from solar power generation. Carbon dioxide is the gas largely responsible for exacerbating the greenhouse effect, leading to the disastrous consequences of global climate change. Table 4.5: Value of regional PV market in Million ¤ Year OECD Europe OECD N. America OECD Pacific Latin America East Asia South Asia China Middle East Africa ROW Total 2003 625 220 798 129 39 52 98 23 77 14 2,075 2004 1,001 247 890 157 49 57 128 27 90 15 2,661 2005 1,073 278 1,043 191 62 69 150 31 105 17 3,019 2006 1,258 378 1,272 234 78 87 183 47 133 21 3,691 2007 1,477 515 1,553 285 99 110 224 71 168 25 4,527 2008 1,734 702 1,896 348 126 140 274 107 214 31 5,572 2009 2,037 956 2,317 425 159 178 334 160 271 38 6,875 2010 2,348 1,169 2,616 540 217 242 456 204 357 50 8,199 2011 2,708 1,431 2,955 687 297 331 622 259 471 66 9,827 2012 3,123 1,752 3,339 873 405 452 850 329 620 87 11,830 2013 3,602 2,144 3,773 1,110 553 617 1,160 419 818 115 14,311 2014 4,154 2,624 4,262 1,410 755 842 1,584 532 1,078 151 17,392 2015 4,790 3,211 4,814 1,792 1,030 1,149 2,161 676 1,420 199 21,242 2016 5,521 3,927 5,435 2,276 1,406 1,567 2,948 858 1,871 262 26,071 2017 6,359 4,801 6,133 2,889 1,917 2,137 4,020 1,090 2,463 345 32,154 2018 7,321 5,865 6,916 3,665 2,612 2,912 5,478 1,383 3,240 454 39,846 2019 8,421 7,160 7,793 4,647 3,556 3,965 7,458 1,753 4,260 597 49,610 2020 9,679 8,734 8,775 5,886 4,838 5,395 10,147 2,220 5,596 785 62,054 33
Page 1 and 2: GREENPEACE · EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC
Page 3 and 4: FOREWORD The European Commission’
Page 5 and 6: solar power is capable of supplying
Page 7 and 8: • PV market development over rece
Page 9 and 10: PART ONE SOLAR BASICS
Page 11 and 12: PV Cells and Modules PV cells are g
Page 13 and 14: Climate Change and Fuel Choices Car
Page 15 and 16: PART TWO THE SOLAR POWER MARKET
Page 17 and 18: The other side of the grid-connecte
Page 19 and 20: Table 2.1: PV cell manufacture - le
Page 21 and 22: PART THREE THE SOLAR RACE
Page 23 and 24: estimated 45,000 jobs created in le
Page 25 and 26: industry’s goal is to sustain a 3
Page 27 and 28: Figure 3.3: Installed PV in Japan b
Page 29 and 30: PART FOUR THE SOLAR FUTURE
Page 31: Table 4.2: Projected growth of worl
Page 35 and 36: Figure 4.7: World solar power marke
Page 37 and 38: OECD Pacific PV market. The tariff
Page 39 and 40: the Australian PV industry. This fi
Page 41 and 42: OECD North America Growth rates env
Page 43 and 44: is based on a target for 120 MW ins
Page 45 and 46: PART FIVE WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE
Page 47 and 48: achieve a sustainable market in sol

SOLAR GENERATION - Greenpeace

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