SOLAR GENERATION - Greenpeace

PART FOUR: THE SOLAR FUTURE
Figure 4.1: Growth in world solar market by application
25 [MW peak]
20
15
Grid connected
Remote Industrial
Off-grid rural (mainly DC)
Consumer Appl.
Table 4.3: Employment in PV related jobs world wide
Year
Jobs in
Production
Jobs in
installation,
retailing
Jobs in
maintenance
Total
2003 8,144 17,451 2,354 27,949
2004 9,027 22,568 3,106 34,701
2005 9,733 29,199 4,079 43,011
2006 12,589 37,768 5,338 55,695
10
5
2007 14,657 48,856 6,967 70,480
2008 18,961 63,203 9,073 91,237
2009 24,531 81,769 11,799 118,099
2010 27,950 104,813 16,822 149,585
2000
2005
2010 2015 2020
2011 35,907 134,651 23,738 194,296
2012 46,240 173,401 33,230 252,871
By 2040, the penetration of solar generation would be even
deeper. Assuming that overall global power consumption had
by then increased from 25,578 to 36,000 TWh, the solar
contribution would equal 21% of the world’s electricity output.
This would place solar power firmly on the map as an
established energy source.
2. Employment
More jobs are created in the installation and servicing of PV
systems than in their manufacture. Based on information
provided by the industry, it has been assumed that today’s 17
jobs per MW in production will be reduced to 15 in 2010,
decreasing to 10 jobs per MW between 2010 and 2020. About
30 jobs per MW will be created during the process of installation,
retailing and providing other local services up to 2010, reducing
to 26 jobs per MW between 2010 and 2020. As far as maintenance
is concerned it is assumed that with the more efficient business
structures and larger systems of the industrialised world, about
one job will be created per installed MW. Since developing
world markets will play a more significant role beyond 2010,
however, the proportion of maintenance work is assumed to
steadily increase up to 2 jobs per MW by 2020.
The result is that by 2020, an estimated 2.25 million full time
jobs would have been created by the development of solar
power around the world. Over half of those would be in the
installation and marketing of systems
2013 59,701 223,880 46,234 329,815
2014 77,294 289,852 64,029 431,175
2015 100,364 376,366 88,370 565,100
2016 130,727 490,226 121,673 742,625
2017 170,834 640,629 167,268 978,731
2018 224,017 840,065 229,764 1,293,846
2019 294,815 1,105,555 315,561 1,715,931
2020 389,438 1,460,391 412,920 2,262,749
3. Costs and Investment
The falling cost of PV cells and modules has been a crucial
factor in the recent development of the technology. An
indication of the potential for increased efficiency in the
production of cells has been given in Part Two, together with
the likely shift in favour of cheaper thin film technologies.
In this scenario it is projected that the price per Wp for
additional production sites will drop from today’s $ 1.69 to $ 1.12
by 2010. Between 2010 and 2020 a further price decrease is
anticipated. On the basis that the current progress ratio is
maintained, an ex-works price of ¤ 2/Wp for crystalline
modules will be achieved by 2010.
In terms of delivered electricity, it is possible to make
predictions for the output from grid-connected systems. The
results are given for an average consumer in some of the major
cities of the world (see Table 4.4). These show that by 2020 the
cost of solar electricity in the most insolated regions - the
Middle East, Asia, South America and Australasia - will have
more than halved to as little as 10-13 S cents/kWh in the best
conditions. This would make PV power competitive with typical
electricity prices paid by end consumer households.
Of equal importance in relation to falling costs is the level of
investment in manufacturing capacity. Here the scenario
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