ANNUAL REPORT 2008 - Gorenje Group

38
2008
3.1 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL
CONDITIONS
THE WORLD
• Considerable slowdown of world economic growth, which was 2.2% in 2008
according to IMF data.
• The negative turnaround was intensified by rapidly rising prices of oil and primary
(agricultural) raw materials and the onset of the crisis.
• In 2009, OECD forecasts a 2.75% decrease in world economic growth and a world
trade volume of 10-15%.
• Lowest levels of crude oil prices in the past four years.
• At the start of the year, the price of a 159-litre barrel was approx. USD 100, at year
end less than USD 40.
• At the beginning of 2009, prices are stable and slightly above 40 USD/barrel.
• On all major international stock exchanges, investors concluded the year with enormous
losses. On an annual level, share values dropped sharply.
EUROPEAN UNION
• Economic growth slowed down in 2008 both in the euro area (0.8%) and in EU as
a whole (0.9%).
• The slowdown of economic growth was enhanced by the consequences of the
financial crisis, which spread to other economic sectors due to stricter lending
conditions and more expensive loans, as well as the diminishing trust between
business subjects.
• According to OECD forecasts, economic growth in EUR is expected to take an upward
turn in the second half of 2009.
• Inflation pressures are diminishing rapidly. According to Eurostat data, the inflation
rate in December 2008 was 2.2%, in the euro area 1.6%.
• Inflation pressures will continue to decline in 2009 due to falling prices of goods, rising
unemployment, and the decline of GDP.
• Weakening of the euro against the US dollar in the last months of 2008 due to
changed expectations regarding future economic activities in the USA, the euro
area, and the United Kingdom.
• Strengthening of the euro in December 2008, achieving 1.47 dollars per euro on a
yearly average, which is 7.3% more than in 2007.
• ECB decreased its key interest rate from 4.25% in November 2008 to 2.5% in
December 2008, and then to 1.5% in March 2009.
• Reduction of Euribor (basis for determining loan expenses).