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Dichlorvos (DDVP) Risk Characterization Document - California ...

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APPENDIX E (continued)<br />

ONCOGENICITY POTENCY CALCULATIONS<br />

Combined forestomach papilloma and/or carcinoma in female mice dosed <strong>DDVP</strong> by gavage for 2<br />

years<br />

POLYNOMIAL DEGREE SELECTED BY PROGRAM, (POLY-DEGREE=0)<br />

MONTE CARLO TEST USED IN SELECTION<br />

#RESPONSES<br />

#RESPONSES<br />

GROUP DOSE OBSERVED/#ANIMALS PREDICTED<br />

1 0.00000 5/ 44 4.67<br />

2 14.3000 6/ 44 6.52<br />

3 28.6000 19/ 48 18.83<br />

CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT STATISTIC IS 7.76347E-02<br />

P-VALUE FOR THE MONTE CARLO TEST IS .4450000000<br />

FORM OF PROBABILITY FUNCTION:<br />

P(DOSE) = 1 - exp( -Q0 - Q1 * D - Q2 * D^2 - Q3 * D^3 )<br />

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF DOSE COEFFICIENTS<br />

------------------------------------------------------------<br />

Q( 0) = .112255443366<br />

Q( 1) = .000000000000<br />

Q( 2) = .000000000000<br />

Q( 3) = 1.648741402970E-05<br />

MAXIMUM VALUE OF THE LOG-LIKELIHOOD IS -65.3646193952<br />

CALCULATIONS ARE BASED UPON EXTRA RISK<br />

GLOBAL 86 LOWER CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON DOSE FOR FIXED RISK<br />

*********************************************************<br />

LOWER BOUND CONFIDENCE COEFFICIENTS FOR<br />

RISK MLE DOSE ON DOSE LIMIT SIZE CONFIDENCE LIMIT<br />

---- -------- ----------- ---------- ----------------<br />

1.00000E-06 .39290 8.93870E-05 95.0% Q( 0) = 8.80886E-02<br />

Q( 1) = 1.11873E-02<br />

Q( 2) = 0.00000<br />

Q( 3) = 2.89517E-06

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