Socioeconomic Roots of Middle East Radicalism

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RICHARDS 25 TABLE 1 POPULATION DATA FOR SELECTED MIDDLE EASTERN AND OTHER MUSLIM COUNTRIES Country Population (millions, 2000) Population Growth Rate a (percent) Afghanistan 26.8 2.5 6.0 Algeria 31.8 2.2 3.4 Bahrain 0.64 1.9 3.0 Egypt 68.5 1.9 3.4 Gaza 1.2 4.5 7.6 Iran 71.9 2.5 4.3 Iraq 24.7 3.6 6.1 Jordan 4.7 3.1 4.8 Kuwait 2.1 1.9 3.4 Lebanon 3.6 1.6 2.3 Libya 6.1 3.7 6.2 Morocco 30.2 2.0 3.4 Oman 2.5 3.3 6.1 Pakistan 141.2 2.4 4.9 Qatar 0.75 1.3 3.5 Saudi Arabia 22.2 3.3 6.4 Somalia 7.0 2.8 7.0 Sudan 33.5 2.9 5.7 Syria 17.8 3.2 5.6 Tunisia 9.6 1.5 2.4 Turkey 66.6 1.6 2.5 United Arab Emirates 2.4 1.6 3.6 West Bank 1.7 3.2 4.9 Yemen 17.5 3.3 7.1 TFR b a. Rate of natural increase, 2000. b. Total fertility rate, 2000. The TFR measures the number of children that a “statistically average” woman will have during her lifetime. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, available at http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp98/wp98.pdf
26 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW Populations will continue to grow despite falling fertility rates because fertility remains well above replacement levels and because, as a result of past population growth, many women will soon enter childbearing years (“demographic momentum”). Many countries in the region will experience a considerable rise in their population during the next fifteen years (figure 1). The population may reach roughly six hundred million by 2025, some six times greater than the 1950s. Such growth poses numerous economic challenges, from food and water to jobs and housing. FIGURE 1 GROWTH IN POPULATION FROM 2000 TO 2015 North Atlantic Ocean Morocco 26% Algeria 26% Tunisia 16% Mediterranean Sea Lebanon 19% Israel 20% West Bank 55% Gaza Strip 72% Libya 39% Egypt 25% Total Population 2000 2015 Algeria........................................................ 31,194,000 a Bahrain............................................................ 406,000 39,281,000 533,000 Egypt ......................................................... 68,360,000 Gaza Strip..................................................... 1,132,000 Iran ............................................................. 65,620,000 Iraq............................................................. 22,676,000 Israel............................................................ 5,842,000 Jordan......................................................... 4,999,000 a Kuwait............................................................. 814,000 85,219,000 1,945,000 79,172,000 33,316,000 6,992,000 7,199,000 1,218,000 Lebanon....................................................... 3,578,000 Libya............................................................. 5,115,000 Morocco..................................................... 30,122,000 a Oman............................................................ 1,961,000 4,252,000 7,115,000 37,832,000 3,507,000 a Qatar................................................................ 168,000 314,000 a Saudi Arabia.............................................. 15,879,000 24,789,000 Syria........................................................... 16,304,000 Tunisia ......................................................... 9,593,000 a United Arab Emirates...................................... 793,000 22,697,000 11,174,000 1,237,000 West Bank.................................................... 2,020,000 Yemen......................................................... 17,479,000 3,128,000 29,165,000 Total for Middle East 304,055,000 400,085,000 a Population numbers for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states exclude the noncitizen population. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Syria 39% Iraq 47% Jordan 44% Red Sea Bahrain 31% Caspian Sea Kuwait 50% Saudi Arabia 56% Yemen 67% Gulf of Aden Iran 21% Qatar 87% U.A.E Oman 56% 78% Arabian Sea Percent Change Over 50 31 to 50 21 to 30 16 to 20 Total growth for the Middle East is 32 percent. Several implications follow from this demographic pattern. First, and most important, is that the majority of those in the Middle East are young—half the Arab population, 54 percent of Iranians, and 52 percent of Pakistanis are younger than twenty years old (table 2). (By contrast, only slightly more than one-quarter of the populations of developed countries—the United States, European Union, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan—are under twenty.) Two-thirds of the people in the region are under thirty. It is not likely that this picture will change markedly in the next generation. By 2025 the number of people aged fourteen or younger will roughly double; in that year, about two out
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Socioeconomic Roots of Middle East Radicalism

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