K - College of Natural Resources - University of California, Berkeley

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Figure 2 (A) Cumulative cases (C) Daily probability of isolation, h c (E) Daily probability of quarantine, q 100 80 60 40 20 R=2 R=1.6 R=1.2 0 0 50 100 150 200 Days since initial case 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Transmission in isolation, κ 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 5 4 3 2.5 2 R 0 =1.5 η = 1 R 0 =5 4 3 2.5 2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Transmission in isolation, κ 75 (B) Probability of containment (D) Daily probability of isolation, h c (F) Reproductive number, R 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Pr(containment) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 1 R 1.2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Reproductive number, R 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 R 0 =5 4 3 2.5 2 . A η = 0.5 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Transmission in isolation, κ 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 γ ρ 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Varying parameter . B η κ
Figure 3 (A) (B) (C) Cumulative number of cases Probability of containment Probability of containment 300 250 200 150 100 50 No control Pr(cont.) = 16% (13, 19) Contact precautions = 21% (17, 24) Quarantine and isolation = 23% (19, 26) Combined measures = 85% (82, 88) Control implemented 0 0 50 100 Time (days) 150 200 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Control precautions Quarantine and isolation Combined measures 0 0 50 100 150 Delay in implementation (days) 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 R 0 =2 R 0 =3 R 0 =4 0 0 50 100 150 Delay in implementation (days) 76
Page 1 and 2:
Disease transmission in heterogeneo
Page 3 and 4:
Abstract Disease transmission in he
Page 5 and 6:
variation is quantified from outbre
Page 7 and 8:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I’ve been fortun
Page 9 and 10:
Engineering Research Council of Can
Page 11 and 12:
Epidemic modelers face an essential
Page 13 and 14:
casual contact (DCC), common usage
Page 15 and 16:
HCW, and patient pools) and dynamic
Page 17 and 18:
Hoffmann 2004; Shen et al. 2004)—
Page 19 and 20:
Chapter Two Frequency-dependent inc
Page 21 and 22:
principles and reach robust conclus
Page 23 and 24:
partnership, disease and demographi
Page 25 and 26:
transmission to incorporate this ph
Page 27 and 28:
This result can be understood intui
Page 29 and 30:
Garnett 2002). We simulated epidemi
Page 31 and 32:
4. Infection-induced changes in pai
Page 33 and 34: susceptible population (Diekmann an
Page 35 and 36: epidemics, since they bring R0 clos
Page 37 and 38: equired.) For slower-moving, chroni
Page 39 and 40: addressed here. Our treatment consi
Page 41 and 42: Table 1. Results for epidemics with
Page 43 and 44: (Equations 3 and A4); the lighter l
Page 45 and 46: Figure 2 A) B) Total proportion inf
Page 47 and 48: Appendix Derivation of SI pair dens
Page 49 and 50: As described in Section 2, our goal
Page 51 and 52: can be calculated as the product of
Page 53 and 54: Chapter Three Curtailing transmissi
Page 55 and 56: egions with on-going epidemics has
Page 57 and 58: transmission to the general communi
Page 59 and 60: and Ih), as well as from off-duty t
Page 61 and 62: ours—see Diekmann & Heesterbeek (
Page 63 and 64: In all cases (Figure 2C, 2D), we id
Page 65 and 66: Sensitivity to quarantining rate (s
Page 67 and 68: precautions in the hospital (η→1
Page 69 and 70: Preventing generalized community tr
Page 71 and 72: everywhere. These robust conclusion
Page 73 and 74: increasingly significant contributi
Page 75 and 76: hospitals or wards. Future work on
Page 77 and 78: Table 1. Summary of transmission an
Page 79 and 80: formulation of our model allows for
Page 81 and 82: Figure 3 (A) Increase in cumulative
Page 83: Figure 1 74
Page 87 and 88: Appendix Sensitivity to population
Page 89 and 90: symptomatic HCWs is low. Indeed, th
Page 91 and 92: E I I I I m, i m, 1 m, 2 m , 3 m ,
Page 93 and 94: for a stochastic epidemic: the prob
Page 95 and 96: progress through the age sub-compar
Page 97 and 98: We therefore wish to characterize t
Page 99 and 100: Figure S4 Distribution of (A) incub
Page 101 and 102: Figure S2 (A) (C) 92 (B) (D)
Page 103 and 104: Figure S4 (A) (B) Proportion of cas
Page 105 and 106: 1. Introduction During the global e
Page 107 and 108: quantity p0, the proportion of case
Page 109 and 110: model selection techniques, lending
Page 111 and 112: elatively mild variation in ν, sho
Page 113 and 114: cannot make inferences based on the
Page 115 and 116: low k extinction happens within the
Page 117 and 118: measured by the variance-to-mean ra
Page 119 and 120: succeed (Figure 3B). For a given re
Page 121 and 122: to lower infectiousness. Other rele
Page 123 and 124: observations for the diseases exami
Page 125 and 126: Pneumonic plague 6 outbreaks N=74 A
Page 127 and 128: s surveillance data. 90% CI: Bootst
Page 129 and 130: Figure captions Figure 1 Evidence f
Page 131 and 132: Figure 4 Impact of control measures
Page 133 and 134: Figure 2 Other Measles Influenza Ru
Page 135 and 136:
Figure 4 C Reproductive number, R 1
Page 137 and 138:
epresenting transmission yields a g
Page 139 and 140:
We rescaled the AICc by subtracting
Page 141 and 142:
for which the median of bootstrap e
Page 143 and 144:
transmission due to the most infect
Page 145 and 146:
an integer Z (99) such that FPoisso
Page 147 and 148:
fv(u). Demographic stochasticity in
Page 149 and 150:
original process is eliminated with
Page 151 and 152:
For RA control, with a random propo
Page 153 and 154:
∞ ( , ) ∫ ( ) ( ). k−1 −t w
Page 155 and 156:
* and for ν < ν : ∞ ∫ ν C 1
Page 157 and 158:
Contrib(control policy) = Pr(contai
Page 159 and 160:
ange of the first disease generatio
Page 161 and 162:
Figure S1 MLE estimates of k 10 1 0
Page 163 and 164:
Figure S2 (cont) D E F k=inf k=4 k=
Page 165 and 166:
Figure S4 Relative frequency 0.4 0.
Page 167 and 168:
SARS (March 12) and the imposition
Page 169 and 170:
Transmission was predominantly by i
Page 171 and 172:
Monkeypox, Zaire 1980-1984 (Jezek e
Page 173 and 174:
Rubella, Hawaii 1970 (Hattis et al.
Page 175 and 176:
tracing, with the stated goal of de
Page 177 and 178:
Table S1. Superspreading events in
Page 179 and 180:
Measles 250 Dance party ?M First ar
Page 181 and 182:
SARS 187+ Apartment block 26M Amoy
Page 183 and 184:
SARS 33 Hospital 62W Undiagnosed: S
Page 185 and 186:
SARS 24/2* Home, emergency room, IC
Page 187 and 188:
Streptococcus group A (type 1) 100+
Page 189 and 190:
References Abbot, P. and L. M. Dill
Page 191 and 192:
Caswell, H. (2001) Matrix Populatio
Page 193 and 194:
Evatt, B. L., W. R. Dowdle, M. John
Page 195 and 196:
Health Canada (2003) Summary of Sev
Page 197 and 198:
Kretzschmar, M. (2000). Sexual netw
Page 199 and 200:
McCallum, H., N. Barlow and J. Hone
Page 201 and 202:
Taylor, H. M. and S. Karlin (1998).
show all

K - College of Natural Resources - University of California, Berkeley

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?