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Webster, J. P., J. I. Hoffman and M. Berdoy (2003). Parasite infection, host resistance and mate choice: battle of the genders in a simultaneous hermaphrodite. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 270: 1481-1485. Wells, R. M., S. S. Estani, Z. E. Yadon, D. Enria, P. Padula, N. Pini, J. N. Mills, C. J. Peters, E. L. Segura, N. Guthmann, E. Arguelo, F. Klein, R. Levy, C. Nagel, R. Calfin, F. deRosas, M. Lazaro, H. Rosales and P. Sandoval (1997). An unusual hantavirus outbreak in southern Argentina: Person-to-person transmission? Emerging Infectious Diseases 3: 171-174. Wenzel, R.P. & Edmond, M.B. (2003) Managing SARS amidst uncertainty. New England Journal of Medicine 348:1947-1948. Woolhouse, M. E. J., C. Dye, J. F. Etard, T. Smith, J. D. Charlwood, G. P. Garnett, P. Hagan, J. L. K. Hii, P. D. Ndhlovu, R. J. Quinnell, C. H. Watts, S. K. Chandiwana and R. M. Anderson (1997). Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: Implications for the design of control programs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 94: 338- 342. World Health Organization (2003a) China daily report of SARS cases. Accessed online at http://www.who.int/csr/sars/china2003_06_11.pdf World Health Organization (2003b) Update 58 - First global consultation on SARS epidemiology, travel recommendations for Hebei Province (China), situation in Singapore. Accessed online at http://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_17/en/ Yu, I. T. S., Y. G. Li, T. W. Wong, W. Tam, A. T. Chan, J. H. W. Lee, D. Y. C. Leung and T. Ho (2004). Evidence of airborne transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus. New England Journal of Medicine 350: 1731-1739. 193
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Disease transmission in heterogeneo
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Abstract Disease transmission in he
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variation is quantified from outbre
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I’ve been fortun
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Engineering Research Council of Can
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Epidemic modelers face an essential
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casual contact (DCC), common usage
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HCW, and patient pools) and dynamic
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Hoffmann 2004; Shen et al. 2004)—
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Chapter Two Frequency-dependent inc
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principles and reach robust conclus
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partnership, disease and demographi
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transmission to incorporate this ph
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This result can be understood intui
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Garnett 2002). We simulated epidemi
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4. Infection-induced changes in pai
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susceptible population (Diekmann an
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epidemics, since they bring R0 clos
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equired.) For slower-moving, chroni
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addressed here. Our treatment consi
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Table 1. Results for epidemics with
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(Equations 3 and A4); the lighter l
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Figure 2 A) B) Total proportion inf
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Appendix Derivation of SI pair dens
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As described in Section 2, our goal
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can be calculated as the product of
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Chapter Three Curtailing transmissi
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egions with on-going epidemics has
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transmission to the general communi
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and Ih), as well as from off-duty t
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ours—see Diekmann & Heesterbeek (
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In all cases (Figure 2C, 2D), we id
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Sensitivity to quarantining rate (s
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precautions in the hospital (η→1
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Preventing generalized community tr
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everywhere. These robust conclusion
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increasingly significant contributi
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hospitals or wards. Future work on
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Table 1. Summary of transmission an
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formulation of our model allows for
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Figure 3 (A) Increase in cumulative
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Figure 1 74
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Figure 3 (A) (B) (C) Cumulative num
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Appendix Sensitivity to population
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symptomatic HCWs is low. Indeed, th
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E I I I I m, i m, 1 m, 2 m , 3 m ,
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for a stochastic epidemic: the prob
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progress through the age sub-compar
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We therefore wish to characterize t
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Figure S4 Distribution of (A) incub
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Figure S2 (A) (C) 92 (B) (D)
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Figure S4 (A) (B) Proportion of cas
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1. Introduction During the global e
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quantity p0, the proportion of case
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model selection techniques, lending
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elatively mild variation in ν, sho
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cannot make inferences based on the
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low k extinction happens within the
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measured by the variance-to-mean ra
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succeed (Figure 3B). For a given re
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to lower infectiousness. Other rele
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observations for the diseases exami
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Pneumonic plague 6 outbreaks N=74 A
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s surveillance data. 90% CI: Bootst
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Figure captions Figure 1 Evidence f
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Figure 4 Impact of control measures
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Figure 2 Other Measles Influenza Ru
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Figure 4 C Reproductive number, R 1
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epresenting transmission yields a g
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We rescaled the AICc by subtracting
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for which the median of bootstrap e
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transmission due to the most infect
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an integer Z (99) such that FPoisso
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fv(u). Demographic stochasticity in
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original process is eliminated with
Page 151 and 152: For RA control, with a random propo
Page 153 and 154: ∞ ( , ) ∫ ( ) ( ). k−1 −t w
Page 155 and 156: * and for ν < ν : ∞ ∫ ν C 1
Page 157 and 158: Contrib(control policy) = Pr(contai
Page 159 and 160: ange of the first disease generatio
Page 161 and 162: Figure S1 MLE estimates of k 10 1 0
Page 163 and 164: Figure S2 (cont) D E F k=inf k=4 k=
Page 165 and 166: Figure S4 Relative frequency 0.4 0.
Page 167 and 168: SARS (March 12) and the imposition
Page 169 and 170: Transmission was predominantly by i
Page 171 and 172: Monkeypox, Zaire 1980-1984 (Jezek e
Page 173 and 174: Rubella, Hawaii 1970 (Hattis et al.
Page 175 and 176: tracing, with the stated goal of de
Page 177 and 178: Table S1. Superspreading events in
Page 179 and 180: Measles 250 Dance party ?M First ar
Page 181 and 182: SARS 187+ Apartment block 26M Amoy
Page 183 and 184: SARS 33 Hospital 62W Undiagnosed: S
Page 185 and 186: SARS 24/2* Home, emergency room, IC
Page 187 and 188: Streptococcus group A (type 1) 100+
Page 189 and 190: References Abbot, P. and L. M. Dill
Page 191 and 192: Caswell, H. (2001) Matrix Populatio
Page 193 and 194: Evatt, B. L., W. R. Dowdle, M. John
Page 195 and 196: Health Canada (2003) Summary of Sev
Page 197 and 198: Kretzschmar, M. (2000). Sexual netw
Page 199 and 200: McCallum, H., N. Barlow and J. Hone
Page 201: Taylor, H. M. and S. Karlin (1998).
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