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Smallpox 38 Hospital spread to HCWs and patients 30M Undiagnosed: smallpox not suspected. Noted as interesting case and shown to students and staff in hospital. Smallpox 16 Undiagnosed: mild ambulant case, not recognized as smallpox. Smallpox 17 Hospital Airborne spread Streptococcus group A (type 46) despite “rigorous isolation”; aided by severe bronchitis, low humidity, and strong air currents 10 Army barrack ?M Asymptomatic 177 case, with strongly positive nose and throat cultures. (Fenner et al. 1988, p.1092) (Fenner et al. 1988, p.1908) (Fenner et al. 1988, p.193) (Hamburger et al. 1945)
Streptococcus group A (type 1) 100+ Hospital cafeteria ?M Food handler with strongly positive nose culture and very high hand cultures; directly handled each piece <strong>of</strong> apple pie (popular item in cafeteria). Tuberculosis 40/2* Rock concert ? 2 index cases in rock band, infected “hundreds, if not thousands” <strong>of</strong> fans, at least 40 active cases. Airborne spread aided by singing. Tuberculosis 56 9M Undiagnosed case, 178 children not usually infectious with TB (Hamburger et al. 1945) (Houk 1980) (Curtis et al. 1999)
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Disease transmission in heterogeneo
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Abstract Disease transmission in he
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variation is quantified from outbre
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I’ve been fortun
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Engineering Research Council of Can
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Epidemic modelers face an essential
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casual contact (DCC), common usage
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HCW, and patient pools) and dynamic
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Hoffmann 2004; Shen et al. 2004)—
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Chapter Two Frequency-dependent inc
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principles and reach robust conclus
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partnership, disease and demographi
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transmission to incorporate this ph
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This result can be understood intui
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Garnett 2002). We simulated epidemi
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4. Infection-induced changes in pai
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susceptible population (Diekmann an
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epidemics, since they bring R0 clos
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equired.) For slower-moving, chroni
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addressed here. Our treatment consi
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Table 1. Results for epidemics with
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(Equations 3 and A4); the lighter l
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Figure 2 A) B) Total proportion inf
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Appendix Derivation of SI pair dens
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As described in Section 2, our goal
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can be calculated as the product of
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Chapter Three Curtailing transmissi
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egions with on-going epidemics has
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transmission to the general communi
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and Ih), as well as from off-duty t
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ours—see Diekmann & Heesterbeek (
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In all cases (Figure 2C, 2D), we id
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Sensitivity to quarantining rate (s
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precautions in the hospital (η→1
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Preventing generalized community tr
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everywhere. These robust conclusion
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increasingly significant contributi
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hospitals or wards. Future work on
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Table 1. Summary of transmission an
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formulation of our model allows for
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Figure 3 (A) Increase in cumulative
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Figure 1 74
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Figure 3 (A) (B) (C) Cumulative num
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Appendix Sensitivity to population
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symptomatic HCWs is low. Indeed, th
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E I I I I m, i m, 1 m, 2 m , 3 m ,
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for a stochastic epidemic: the prob
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progress through the age sub-compar
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We therefore wish to characterize t
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Figure S4 Distribution of (A) incub
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Figure S2 (A) (C) 92 (B) (D)
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Figure S4 (A) (B) Proportion of cas
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1. Introduction During the global e
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quantity p0, the proportion of case
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model selection techniques, lending
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elatively mild variation in ν, sho
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cannot make inferences based on the
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low k extinction happens within the
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measured by the variance-to-mean ra
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succeed (Figure 3B). For a given re
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to lower infectiousness. Other rele
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observations for the diseases exami
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Pneumonic plague 6 outbreaks N=74 A
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s surveillance data. 90% CI: Bootst
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Figure captions Figure 1 Evidence f
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Figure 4 Impact of control measures
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Figure 2 Other Measles Influenza Ru
Page 135 and 136: Figure 4 C Reproductive number, R 1
Page 137 and 138: epresenting transmission yields a g
Page 139 and 140: We rescaled the AICc by subtracting
Page 141 and 142: for which the median of bootstrap e
Page 143 and 144: transmission due to the most infect
Page 145 and 146: an integer Z (99) such that FPoisso
Page 147 and 148: fv(u). Demographic stochasticity in
Page 149 and 150: original process is eliminated with
Page 151 and 152: For RA control, with a random propo
Page 153 and 154: ∞ ( , ) ∫ ( ) ( ). k−1 −t w
Page 155 and 156: * and for ν < ν : ∞ ∫ ν C 1
Page 157 and 158: Contrib(control policy) = Pr(contai
Page 159 and 160: ange of the first disease generatio
Page 161 and 162: Figure S1 MLE estimates of k 10 1 0
Page 163 and 164: Figure S2 (cont) D E F k=inf k=4 k=
Page 165 and 166: Figure S4 Relative frequency 0.4 0.
Page 167 and 168: SARS (March 12) and the imposition
Page 169 and 170: Transmission was predominantly by i
Page 171 and 172: Monkeypox, Zaire 1980-1984 (Jezek e
Page 173 and 174: Rubella, Hawaii 1970 (Hattis et al.
Page 175 and 176: tracing, with the stated goal of de
Page 177 and 178: Table S1. Superspreading events in
Page 179 and 180: Measles 250 Dance party ?M First ar
Page 181 and 182: SARS 187+ Apartment block 26M Amoy
Page 183 and 184: SARS 33 Hospital 62W Undiagnosed: S
Page 185: SARS 24/2* Home, emergency room, IC
Page 189 and 190: References Abbot, P. and L. M. Dill
Page 191 and 192: Caswell, H. (2001) Matrix Populatio
Page 193 and 194: Evatt, B. L., W. R. Dowdle, M. John
Page 195 and 196: Health Canada (2003) Summary of Sev
Page 197 and 198: Kretzschmar, M. (2000). Sexual netw
Page 199 and 200: McCallum, H., N. Barlow and J. Hone
Page 201 and 202: Taylor, H. M. and S. Karlin (1998).
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K - College of Natural Resources - University of California, Berkeley

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