K - College of Natural Resources - University of California, Berkeley

model as the best combination of accuracy and parsimony in fitting the aggregated data
(Table 1).) Because several of the source reports were published in inaccessible or
foreign-language publications, we contacted Dr. Raymond Gani directly and he kindly
provided the raw data from their analyses. We based our analysis of pneumonic plague
on these data, with reference to the source report for the Mukden outbreak which we
analyzed more closely in Table 2 (Tieh et al. 1948). Mukden is a city in Manchuria,
China, which experienced a pneumonic plague outbreak in 1946 with 12 cases before
control measures and 27 cases after the advent of control. Control measures included
isolation and quarantine (in a suburban area) of all patients and contacts, disinfection
and locking of infected houses, and wearing of masks required for all contacts and
advised for the general population.
Avian H5N1 Influenza, Southeast Asia 2004 (Ferguson et al. 2004)
These data come from surveillance of the avian influenza epidemic in Southeast
Asia, as summarized in April 2004. Of 33 confirmed H5N1 cases in humans, 31 were
conclusively attributed to avian-to-human transmission, while 2 cases were possibly due
to human-to-human transmission (from the same source case). While this human-to-
human transmission was not confirmed, the pattern is consistent with recent reports of
limited transmission of H5N1 avian influenza by prolonged intimate contact within
families in Thailand ProMED-mail. Avian influenza, human - East Asia (48): Thailand.
ProMED-mail 2004; 28 Sep: 20040928.2680. . Accessed
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