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Disease transmission in heterogeneo
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Abstract Disease transmission in he
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variation is quantified from outbre
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I’ve been fortun
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Engineering Research Council of Can
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Epidemic modelers face an essential
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casual contact (DCC), common usage
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HCW, and patient pools) and dynamic
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Hoffmann 2004; Shen et al. 2004)—
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Chapter Two Frequency-dependent inc
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principles and reach robust conclus
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partnership, disease and demographi
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transmission to incorporate this ph
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This result can be understood intui
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Garnett 2002). We simulated epidemi
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4. Infection-induced changes in pai
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susceptible population (Diekmann an
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epidemics, since they bring R0 clos
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equired.) For slower-moving, chroni
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addressed here. Our treatment consi
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Table 1. Results for epidemics with
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(Equations 3 and A4); the lighter l
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Figure 2 A) B) Total proportion inf
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Appendix Derivation of SI pair dens
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As described in Section 2, our goal
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can be calculated as the product of
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Chapter Three Curtailing transmissi
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egions with on-going epidemics has
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transmission to the general communi
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and Ih), as well as from off-duty t
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ours—see Diekmann & Heesterbeek (
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In all cases (Figure 2C, 2D), we id
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Sensitivity to quarantining rate (s
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precautions in the hospital (η→1
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Preventing generalized community tr
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everywhere. These robust conclusion
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increasingly significant contributi
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hospitals or wards. Future work on
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Table 1. Summary of transmission an
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formulation of our model allows for
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Figure 3 (A) Increase in cumulative
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Figure 1 74
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Figure 3 (A) (B) (C) Cumulative num
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Appendix Sensitivity to population
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symptomatic HCWs is low. Indeed, th
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E I I I I m, i m, 1 m, 2 m , 3 m ,
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for a stochastic epidemic: the prob
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progress through the age sub-compar
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We therefore wish to characterize t
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Figure S4 Distribution of (A) incub
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Figure S2 (A) (C) 92 (B) (D)
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Figure S4 (A) (B) Proportion of cas
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1. Introduction During the global e
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quantity p0, the proportion of case
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- Page 117 and 118: measured by the variance-to-mean ra
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- Page 121 and 122: to lower infectiousness. Other rele
- Page 123 and 124: observations for the diseases exami
- Page 125 and 126: Pneumonic plague 6 outbreaks N=74 A
- Page 127 and 128: s surveillance data. 90% CI: Bootst
- Page 129 and 130: Figure captions Figure 1 Evidence f
- Page 131 and 132: Figure 4 Impact of control measures
- Page 133 and 134: Figure 2 Other Measles Influenza Ru
- Page 135 and 136: Figure 4 C Reproductive number, R 1
- Page 137 and 138: epresenting transmission yields a g
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- Page 141 and 142: for which the median of bootstrap e
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- Page 145 and 146: an integer Z (99) such that FPoisso
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- Page 151 and 152: For RA control, with a random propo
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- Page 157 and 158: Contrib(control policy) = Pr(contai
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- Page 165 and 166: Figure S4 Relative frequency 0.4 0.
- Page 167 and 168: SARS (March 12) and the imposition
- Page 169 and 170: Transmission was predominantly by i
- Page 171 and 172: Monkeypox, Zaire 1980-1984 (Jezek e
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- Page 175 and 176: tracing, with the stated goal of de
- Page 177 and 178: Table S1. Superspreading events in
- Page 179 and 180: Measles 250 Dance party ?M First ar
- Page 181 and 182: SARS 187+ Apartment block 26M Amoy
- Page 183 and 184: SARS 33 Hospital 62W Undiagnosed: S
- Page 185 and 186: SARS 24/2* Home, emergency room, IC
- Page 187 and 188: Streptococcus group A (type 1) 100+
- Page 189 and 190: References Abbot, P. and L. M. Dill
- Page 191 and 192: Caswell, H. (2001) Matrix Populatio
- Page 193 and 194: Evatt, B. L., W. R. Dowdle, M. John
- Page 195 and 196: Health Canada (2003) Summary of Sev
- Page 197 and 198: Kretzschmar, M. (2000). Sexual netw
- Page 199 and 200: McCallum, H., N. Barlow and J. Hone
- Page 201 and 202: Taylor, H. M. and S. Karlin (1998).