K - College of Natural Resources - University of California, Berkeley
K - College of Natural Resources - University of California, Berkeley
K - College of Natural Resources - University of California, Berkeley
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
Measles v95<br />
US 1997-1999<br />
N=165 s<br />
Measles v95?<br />
Canada 1998-2001<br />
N=49 s<br />
Table notes<br />
P<br />
G<br />
NB<br />
P<br />
G<br />
NB<br />
27.8<br />
9.6<br />
0<br />
12.9<br />
3.5<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0.01<br />
0.99<br />
0<br />
0.15<br />
0.85<br />
0.63 #<br />
(0.47,0.80) #<br />
0.82 #<br />
(0.72,0.98) #<br />
0.23<br />
(0.13,0.40) b<br />
0.21<br />
(0.09,0.52) b<br />
0.81<br />
(0.70,0.92)<br />
0.83<br />
(0.64,0.96)<br />
Upper portion, results based on full distribution <strong>of</strong> Z; lower portion, only mean <strong>of</strong> Z and<br />
proportion <strong>of</strong> zeros known. Data and analysis described in appendices A and B.<br />
∆AICc: Akaike information criterion, modified for small sample size, relative to lowest<br />
score.<br />
Akaike weight: approximate probability that model is the best <strong>of</strong> models considered.<br />
ˆ<br />
ˆ<br />
R 0,mle and k mle:<br />
maximum likelihood estimates <strong>of</strong> mean and shape parameter <strong>of</strong> negative<br />
binomial distribution, from full distribution <strong>of</strong> Zobs.<br />
ˆ<br />
ˆ<br />
R 0,pz and k pz : estimates <strong>of</strong> mean and shape parameter <strong>of</strong> negative binomial distribution,<br />
from mean and proportion <strong>of</strong> zeros <strong>of</strong> Zobs.<br />
t20: proportion <strong>of</strong> transmission due to most infectious 20% <strong>of</strong> cases, calculated from k . ˆ<br />
vXX significantly vaccinated population; XX = proportion vaccinated, ( ? value estimated<br />
or unknown).<br />
* outbreak probably atypical <strong>of</strong> disease.<br />
† incomplete or inaccurate tracing suspected.<br />
N = number <strong>of</strong> infectious individuals in dataset.<br />
117