Etudes et évaluation de processus océaniques par des hiérarchies ...
Etudes et évaluation de processus océaniques par des hiérarchies ... Etudes et évaluation de processus océaniques par des hiérarchies ...
126 CHAPITRE 4. ETUDES DE PROCESSUS OCÉANOGRAPHIQUES Ocean Dynamics the total friction is easily done whereas the distinction between the nature of the friction, linear or quadratic, is more complex, takes a longer amount time and requires for smaller noise levels in the observed variable. The dynamics in τ − c D parameter-space thus happen on two time-scales, a fast convergence onto the manifold of slow convergence followed by a slow convergence within it. It is, however, interesting to note that there is a rather good convergence to the correct values with a rather high noise level, which is actually larger than the thickness of the gravity current itself. This feature of fast convergence onto a manifold of slow convertel-00545911, version 1 - 13 Dec 2010 Fig. 5 Distribution of the ensemble in τ (horizontal direction) and c D (vertical direction) space for the three experiments: G0221 (left column), G0021 (middle column) and G0121 (right column), for different times: Initial distribution (upper line) |u| ≈ 0.2 m s −1 . The space time mean absolute velocity of the gravity current is defined by: |u| = 1 ∫ T ∫ h|u|dxdt (10) AT 0 L where A = ∫ L hdx is the cross-section of the gravity current, L is the extension in the x-direction and T is the duration of the experiment (7 days). Indeed, the total friction is given by c D |u| + τ, which is constant along a line of slope −|u| in τ-c D -space. The fast convergence onto the line of slope −|u| (forthwith called manifold of slow convergence) followed by a slow convergence along the line means that the estimation of (same in all experiments; some initial values lie outside the area shown), after 7 days (middle line) and after seven iterations of the 7-day dynamics (lower line). The values of τ and c D are normalised by the true value used in the control run
4.6. ESTIMATION OF FRICTION PARAMETERS AND LAWS IN 1.5D SHALLOW-WATER GRAVI Ocean Dynamics tel-00545911, version 1 - 13 Dec 2010 gence in parameter space followed by a slow convergence within the manifold of slow convergence is not a peculiarity of the here-presented investigations but a general feature when estimating non-independent parameters. In all the estimation experiments considered so far, we only considered gravity currents which were initially in a geostrophic equilibrium, a condition we like to relax in the sequel. We remind the reader that the control run replaces the observations of an actual gravity current, and by allowing it to differ from geostrophy, we evaluate the parameter estimation when applied to gravity currents not in a geostrophic equilibrium. The data assimilation experiment is, however, unchanged and based on the assumption that the current is in geostrophic equilibrium, which means that it is ignoring not only the friction parameters but also the initial velocity distribution. This creates an inconsistency especially in the early evolution before the gravity current adjusts to geostrophy. We found that the difficulty arises not so much from inertial oscillations of the notadjusted gravity current (the control run), but from the fact that the kinetic energy in the non-adjusted runs is smaller. The assimilation reacts by imposing high values of the drag coefficient (c D ) to drain energy from the assimilation runs. The drag coefficient, rather than the linear friction constant, increases as the fastest downslope motion of the only partially adjusted gravity current is at locations with the largest slope, where the geostrophic velocities are also highest. The increase in the drag coefficient is so large that all members of the ensemble actually leave the parameter square shown in Fig. 6 for experiment G1021, but they come back later in the assimilation experiment. Once the energy levels are comparable and the control run is geostrophically adjusted, we observe a fast convergence onto the manifold of slow convergence. The guess for c D , however, is too high (and τ correspondingly small) in all realisations so that the true value is not a likely candidate of the ensemble and subsequent assimilation has a very slow convergence, on the manifold of slow convergence, to the true value. It is no surprise that opting for a larger value of the observation error, as done in G02221, gives better results due to the lower confidence of the model in the observations; the initial increase is slowed down and the subsequent convergence to the true value is helped by the fact that the spread of the ensemble is larger and the true value is a likely candidate of the ensemble (Fig. 6). Again, we see a fast convergence onto the manifold of slow Fig. 6 Distribution of the ensemble in τ/τ 0 (horizontal direction) and c D /c D0 (vertical direction) space, both normalised by the values of the control run, for the three experiments: G01021 (left row), G02021 (middle row) and G02221 (right row), for different times: After 7 days (upper line) and after seven iterations of the 7-day dynamics (lower line). The values of τ and c D are normalised by the true value used in the control run. The initial distribution is the same as Fig. 5. After 7 days, all members of the ensemble in G01021 are outside the area shown
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126 CHAPITRE 4. ETUDES DE PROCESSUS OCÉANOGRAPHIQUES<br />
Ocean Dynamics<br />
the total friction is easily done whereas the distinction<br />
b<strong>et</strong>ween the nature of the friction, linear or quadratic, is<br />
more complex, takes a longer amount time and requires<br />
for smaller noise levels in the observed variable. The<br />
dynamics in τ − c D <strong>par</strong>am<strong>et</strong>er-space thus happen on<br />
two time-scales, a fast convergence onto the manifold<br />
of slow convergence followed by a slow convergence<br />
within it.<br />
It is, however, interesting to note that there is a<br />
rather good convergence to the correct values with a<br />
rather high noise level, which is actually larger than<br />
the thickness of the gravity current itself. This feature<br />
of fast convergence onto a manifold of slow convertel-00545911,<br />
version 1 - 13 Dec 2010<br />
Fig. 5 Distribution of the ensemble in τ (horizontal direction)<br />
and c D (vertical direction) space for the three experiments:<br />
G0221 (left column), G0021 (middle column) and G0121 (right<br />
column), for different times: Initial distribution (upper line)<br />
|u| ≈ 0.2 m s −1 . The space time mean absolute velocity<br />
of the gravity current is <strong>de</strong>fined by:<br />
|u| = 1 ∫ T ∫<br />
h|u|dxdt (10)<br />
AT<br />
0<br />
L<br />
where A = ∫ L<br />
hdx is the cross-section of the gravity<br />
current, L is the extension in the x-direction and T is<br />
the duration of the experiment (7 days). In<strong>de</strong>ed, the<br />
total friction is given by c D |u| + τ, which is constant<br />
along a line of slope −|u| in τ-c D -space. The fast convergence<br />
onto the line of slope −|u| (forthwith called<br />
manifold of slow convergence) followed by a slow convergence<br />
along the line means that the estimation of<br />
(same in all experiments; some initial values lie outsi<strong>de</strong> the area<br />
shown), after 7 days (middle line) and after seven iterations of<br />
the 7-day dynamics (lower line). The values of τ and c D are<br />
normalised by the true value used in the control run