c - usaid

59
parameter K ha been introducod which can take values between 0
and 1, and which he lpa in shifting the emphasis of the family
planning program towards thosea ge-groupa in which the naturaL
fert i lity rates are tho highest. In this way, R and K operate
through twa different mochanisms and they tugother provide a
more
powerful tool and a wider degree of choice than any one aof them
[or any other single parameter] could over do.
(c)
Exronantiol average-deflator D
In our formulation, the program re-alLocation factor K forms
part of an exponential function which ha sevai al desirable
prope rties but which also cxerts an upward presssu re on the agespeci
fic CPR' s with the result that their average value might
exceed the estimate provided by the aggregate modal.
This problem
has been taken care of by introducing a deflator D which can be
assigned values between 0 and 1 so as to ensure that the ea timatad
numbers of contraceptive-users in the various age-groups add up to
the total users already estimated from the aggregate modal.
A computer program that we have devised for Block 3 of ourmodel
takes as an input the relative values of the natural
- ferti l i ty pattern which we assume to be the same in the base year
as wa l L as the target years.
Other inputs are:­
i Total population in the target year (to be taken from
population proj ections] ;
( i) Number of a l woman as well as currently married woman in
five yearly age-groups,
starting from 15-Iq and going up to
45-49 (to be estimated on the assumption that the percentage
of currently married women to total women in ones 15-4B in