c - usaid

57
Four patterns of natural fertility in relative terms used
for consistency checking experimentation
Pattern II Pattern III Pattern IV
(Cools- (Coale- (completely
Age-group of Pattern I Trussel l Truvsel L different
currently CCo eLe- modi fied modi fied from Coalomarried
woman TrusselL] for ageas for ages Trussel l
over 40) over 40 &
below 20)
15-19 0.75 0.75 0.65 0.50
20-24 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.95
25-29 0.94 0.94 0.94 1.00
30-34 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.83
35-39 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.64
40-44 0.36 0.53 0.50 0.20
45-49 0.05 0.07 0.065 0.055
Estimate of TFR 6.42 6.39 6.41 6.50
for 1981 obtained
by using the
pattern
Corresponding 43.68 42.83 42.83 44.21
estimate of CBR
for 1981
Whan we compare these estimates with the commonly accepted
values, namely, 6.3 for TFR and 42.8 for CBR for 1981, we find
that pat Lorn II provides the best fit, closely followed by pattern
III. Thes patterns are modified variants of the standard CoaLe-
Trussell formulation. We need not take the view that patterns I
aned IV are unsuitable, since the commonly accepted values
themselves might be subject to a margin of error. Therefore, all
computations for the target years (namely, 1986, 1991, 1996 and
20013 are made (in BLocks 2 and 3) on the basis of all four