c - usaid

55
that
a fulfi Lmant of the TFR target is not rigidly tied up to any
unique distribution of the U tJ . The next questions r i asd by
the planners would then be, what are the options, and how can
these be expressed in terms of the contraceptive method-mix of the
fami ly planning program end thn re a
tive coverage of the di ffarent
sub-groups of the eligible couples defined in terms of age and
parity (say, the numbnr of Living children). In th16 p recess,
values of ASFR(t) cannot be
assumed to be known in advance.
A methodological implication of the proceding argument is
that, rather than considering ASFFI(t) as an input and U. (t] as an
output, both these should be parts of the output. However, a
depleted package of inputs (due to non-inc lesion of ASFR(t) has
to be mode up in a way which is methodological ly preferable to
what has been done in the PopuLation Counci Ls model. We have
suggested in this nnogr. ph that age-spaci fic values of natural
ferti lity ,
expressed in re a tive terms as a standard pattern for
developing countries, should be used (perhaps with same
modification) to complete the package of inputs. In fact, the
standard pattern formulated by Coale and Trussell (1974] appears
to be generally suitable for Bang adesh, and it performs even -­
better'when values relating to ages 40 and above are adjusted. We ­
have shown that a
revised version of the Population Council's agespecific
model is fully operational when the CoaLa-Trussell
pattern
of natural ferti Lity (or any other variant) is used as an
input, the other inputs being similar in both the cases.
A noteworthy feature of our model is that, by introducing a
revised methodology, we a re able to go beyond the Population
Counci l's modal in terms of scope and coverage as well. More