c - usaid

5
rate, and there is no possibi Lity of a simultan ousa estimation of
the crude birth rato(CBRI . The practical difficulty and confusion
arising
from this situation is well i Llustrated in the context of
target-fixing for 1990-1991. It is now commonly agreed that the
family
planning program in the country should be rapi Ly expanded
so ns to achieve a contracoptive prevalence rate ,CPR of 40% by
the end of the Third Five Year Plan. According to the aggregate
model, this Level of CP R by 1991 corresponds to a TFR target of
4.8. This represents a reduction of nearly 24% in 10 years in
comparison to a TFR value of 6.3 in 1981.
However, the model does
not provide a direct answer to an important, related question,
namely, "how much decline in the crude birth rate [CBR) can be
achieved at the same time" ?
Indirect answers to thi s question are currently attempted
through a variety of methods and procedures, including the
foLlowing:­
a] by using a regression equation between CB R and CPR
[contraceptive prevalence rate). A commonly used form of the
equation was derived by Nortman [1900) on the basis of data for
32 dove Loping countries:
CBR=:46.9 - 42.0u where u , R =0.91 )
le o
2
A slightly different equation has been suggested by Mauldin
and Segal (1986]:-
CBR = 49.07 - 0.43CPR (R2 =0.84].
However, if these equations are applied to Bangladesh for 1991
wien CPR i s planned to be 40%, then the estimatee value of CBR at
the end of the Third Five Year Plan would be 30.1 by the first