c - usaid

52
rho main concluaions that wo can draw from the above satF
of estimates are tha fol lowing:­
- TFR estimates for the yea rs 196 to 2001, which are
currently used, appear to be reasonablo;
- CBR estimata for 1986 and 1991, which are currently used,
see-, to a under-estimates, particularly Vor 1991;
- CBR estimates for 1996 and 2001, which are Lurrently used,
appear to be reasonab le.
A
special (and now] feature of our results is that they have
been obtained by a single, integrated model which takes into
account inputs like the base year contraceptive prevalence rates
(but not the target year ASFR's] ,
end which yields a L L the desired
outputs including target year contraceptive prevalence rates,
ASFR's, TFR and CBR. Underlying the model are values of agespecific
nLtu ral fertility rates,
expressed in relative terms, in
respect of which we have experimented with several patterns.
The
fact that our model, with the help of self-devised computer
programs, can repeat the enti re exercise with u new base year as
well as with any new pattern of natural ferti lity gives us
confidence that it can serve as a mere useful too L than the
Population Counci l's modal, particularly for Bangladesh. 77
Before concluding this section, we would like to present
estimates of tota natural fertility ratesa nd relevant indices
for each of the target years:­